Saturday, June 6, 2009

Arroyo more lethal than Marcos

We face a strong and stubborn enemy. Unlike the Marcos regime, the Arroyo administration is more dangerous. First, it has a strong political will, able to accomplish almost everything it desires and uses resources more skilfully and effectively than its enemies.

Second, it has, under its disposal, a young army of former change agents. These ex-change agents are skilled in the Art of War. They possess organizational as well as tactical knowledge of the political environment. They know what buttons to push and with the right application of tactical moves, they are able to defeat us and lead us to confusion.

Lastly, the Arroyo regime is in a stronger position in terms of the exercise of state power. It has the loyalty of some generals. It has spies sown like seeds in the field.

Isolation is the first step in defeating this regime. In the past though, the Arroyo clique already solved that through a public display of support from its allies. Through machinations, the Arroyo clique lured both its allies and enemies into a trap before, set to show strength and force under extremely difficult circumstances.

This came about because the Arroyo clique already knew and telegraphed the moves of its enemies. In any destabilizing situation, the script is evident. First, the rallies. Second, expression of collective support. Third, the calling of Patriotic elements within the military. Fourth, a big expression of dissent and fifth, the movement of troops. This has been the script since EDSA uno and the reason why the Arroyo regime continues to survive is the fact that the writers of this script are now safely on the side of Wrong, rather than of Right.

In all of these stages, the Arroyo clique already had the right responses based on its experience culled from years of surviving under a cloud of destabilization.

The script must be revised. A new strategy must be created and implemented. New players should emerge from this crisis; otherwise, these moves are sure and bound to fail, yet again, leading to demoralization and useless expenditure.

I am not at liberty to suggest anything at this point simply to say try reading the 36 Strategems of War. That holds the key to the complete defeat of this regime.

General Clausewitz used to say that war is a continuation of politics. In a nonlinear situation, the theory of chaos is always best as a strategy since this compels the opposing force to adapt in a different situation.

Lastly, it would be erroneous to compare Arroyo with Marcos, therefore, the same strategy applies to the present situation. Ours is a totally different situation. We are not struggling under a dictatorship, no. There is yet, a perceived foundling of a dictatorship. Hence, there is an absence of experience or learnings. Without this, it would be hard to generate critical mass.

Therefore, we must not rely on a critical mass as a dependent variable. We must push for the penultimate result without thinking of the future. If we fear that the Arroyo regime would use all available force to avert change, then, we must not proceed with all our plans since that indicates unpreparedness.

Stealth and the right application of the theories of war should be undertaken. Otherwise, this would lead to a disastrous defeat. It would give the regime a reason to proceed with the dictatorship and worst, totally annihilate all dissenting groups in the process.