Wednesday, October 14, 2009

60% of Filipinos favor Noynoy as President---SWS


The third quarter survey of the SWS is now out. This survey is very critical for all political parties because it is that one document that they would share with potential political investors. Based on this survey, conducted by the SWS last September 18 to 21, via face-to-face interviews with 1,800 respondents, the most preferred successor to Mrs. Arroyo is none other than---Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III.

Aquino got 60% of survey respondents vote. A far second is Nacionalista Party bet Manuel "Manny" Villar who got 37%, an improvement from the 33% he got in a previous survey.

Former president Joseph Estrada's numbers are rather disappointing, as he is a far third, getting 18%, three points higher than Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) bet Chiz Escudero who managed to maintain his rating of 15%.


Both Estrada and Escudero suffered a ratings drop, with Estrada dropping 7% percentage points (from 25% to 18%) while Escudero's ratings also got a 5 percentage point drop. That means that both have plateaued already within this range, as accurately predicted by this site a few weeks ago.

Not in the running anymore as a presidential bet, Senator Mar Roxas still got a respectable 12%, followed by Vice President Noli de Castro at 8%; Senator Loren Legarda at 5% and Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro with 4%.

Legarda suffered the biggest drop in percentage points. She lost 10 percentage points, the single biggest drop among the presidentiables. Teodoro is the second best gainer. From a 0.8, he now has 4%

Others who got some points include Senator Panfilo Lacson and Makati mayor Jejomar Binay at 2%.

MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando remains stedfast for being at the 1% slot :-) This affirms that if there be an election today, only 1% of the electorate will vote for him, which is okey if he goes back as mayor of Marikina. He'll surely win.

Jesus is Lord Movement Eddie Villanueva remains at 1%, a tad higher than Mrs. Arroyo who got 0.05%

Observations:

1. Bayani remains hopeful for being consistently at 1%
2. Chiz Escudero's ratings have plateaued
3. Mar Roxas, despite being a vice presidential bet already, remains very competent in the public's eye.
4. Loren Legarda's supporters probably was given the instruction not to push thru with her presidential candidacy and focus on other things.
5. Trust for Noli is slowly disintegrating.
6. The vaulted 20% support base for Gloria to benefit Gibo is nowhere to be found. A mirage.
7. Erap Estrada's numbers remain consistently lower than expected. Meaning, his mass base support has disintegrated already. In fact, the latest survey showing him dropping from 25% to 18% is worrisome.
8. Manny Villar remains the closest rival of Noynoy and with the most consistent high survey showing since late last year.