Lakas is now a paper tiger

Allies of the president are transferring to the Nacionalista Party, allegedly part of an "agreement" between Mrs. Arroyo and Senator Manny Villar, President of NP that should Villar win, the new administration will not pursue new cases against the First Couple. An entire block of about 400 local government officials took their oath of allegiance to the NP, destroying the solid support of Eastern Visayas behind Arroyo.

Earlier, LAKAS-KAMPI spokesperson El Rey Villafuerte, a political heavyweight in the Bicol region, also moved his support to the NP while his father, Cong. Luis Villafuerte, continues to recruit supporters for the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC). With rumours that Senator Loren Legarda has already decided to team up with Chiz Escudero, expect NPC chairman Danding Cojuangco to unleash his millions for that crucial win come 2010.

Meanwhile, the Osmenas have decided to throw their support behind Liberal Party candidate Noynoy Aquino, an expected move since the clan maintains very strong ties with the Aquinos and the Lopezes whom everybody knows support the Yellow Army of NoyNoy (wag nang Yellow Fever please. YAN movement na lang, pwdeng Yellow Army of Noynoy or Youth Alliance for Nationalism). The Guingonas have already expressed their support behind Noynoy, with Cong. Teofisto Guingona III running under the LP slate. Other former Aquino allies have already intimated their desire to help Noynoy clinch the presidency.

Now, after Estrada announced his presidency, no news as to how many political supporters the former president have at this point, since some of his previous political associates have either moved to NP or to NPC. Estrada, it seems, only has the JEEP NI ERAP political machinery maintained by Boy Morales. Of course, Cebu, once the bailiwick of Arroyo has been split in half, with some officials going for Erap while others are either for Villar and some decided to stick with whoever is the administration bet.

The administration party, it seems, is the most affected among the political parties. Defections are on-going. Former LAKAS members are shifting allegiances, some going for Villar, others moving to the Cojuangco powered political party. Some analysts say the 49 or so Governors who initially expressed support behind Gilbert Gibo Teodoro have whittled down to half of the number. Congressmen who first expressed their support are also shifting to other parties. This, despite the increasing political popularity of Teodoro, who got 4% of the support votes in an SWS survey, an improvement to the 0.8% he got a month ago.