Monday, November 16, 2009

Noynoy Aquino continues to lead other presidential bets


Like what this space proclaimed a few weeks ago, Senator Noynoy Aquino is still topping the surveys and might, just might be elected president with the biggest margins ever. In the October survey results published by Pulse Asia, forty four percent (44%) of Filipino voters prefer Noynoy over Manny Villar (19%) , Chiz Escudero (13%) , Joseph Estrada (11%) and Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro (2%). With major political forces, both traditional and non-traditional, converging behind Noynoy, it seems that there is no stopping the Noypi train from clinching a win in the May 2010 elections.

Seems like the Liberal Party is doing their homework, increasing their network, getting bigger and bigger support groups and doing their propaganda right.

And like what we predicted in this space, ratings of Escudero and Estrada are further going south, indicating that indeed, their mass bases have reached critical maximum. Escudero could only muster between 13-18% of the votes, while Estrada's "magic" seems just able to produce between 11%-18%. If you review the performance of Jinggoy and Loi Estrada in previous electoral contests, Estrada is only good for 10-11 million votes.

And it is doubtful if Escudero could muster between 15-18 million votes come election time. Quite possibly, Noynoy Aquino, if he continues to do the right thing, and prevent his image from being destroyed by black propaganda, could easily generate close to 23-25 million votes, enough for a win in the elections.

IN the case of Manny Villar, it seems doubtful if he also could muste such a figure considering that he does not have a solid mass base support. His support, based on the surveys, are vacillating between 18-25%. Good news for the Liberal Party since the Pulse Asia survey indicates that Villar's ratings have now plateau-ed and it would be difficult for the Nacionalista Party bet to recover with only six months to go.

Noynoy, therefore, has (1) a high public approval and support (2) growing grassroots machinery composed of non-political and political forces and (3) right propaganda machine.

Now, for those who want Noynoy's ratings to dwindle, I'll say one thing---neutralize his foremost endorser, that is, the Filipino People. If you can't do that, just settle for Kris Aquino.