Friday, February 26, 2010

Senatoriables

Based on the Pulse Asia survey, familiar political brandnames top the Senatorial surveys, and only ONE (1) name belonged to a private citizen and that is, Joey de Venecia III. Joey de Venecia III has a high rank of 11-12 and with an awareness rating of 81% with a vote conversion of 24%. Quite high, considering that the rest of the pack bear familiar names:

1. Revilla, Bong (re-electionist)
2. Estrada, Jinggoy (re-electionist)
3. Cayetano, Pia (re-electionist)
4. Drilon, Frank (comebacking)
5. Defensor-Santiago, Miriam (re-electionist)
6. Enrile, Juan-Ponce (re-electionist)
7. Recto, Ralph (comebacking)
8. Osmena, Serge (comebacking)
9. Sotto, Tito (comebacking)
10. Lapid, Lito (re-electionist)
11. Marcos, Bongbong (new)
12. De Venecia, Joey (new)

De Venecia III's awareness rating is even higher than Pia Cayetan but since he is a neophyte in politics, De Venecia III's voter preference rating is expectedly lower. Meaning, what Joey has to do is try to further convince the people of his competence and his trust or voting preference rating will surely surge. For Joey, it is not a matter of awareness--it is a matter of trust.

Bongbong Marcos' awareness rating is higher than De Venecia's and for his credit, the higher his awareness becomes, the higher also his trust or voting preference ratings become. What Marcos has to do is increase his awareness and surely, he will definitely make a higher grade.

Ruffy Biazon follows at 13th with 19.8% voting preference with an awareness rating of 52% and Teofisto Guingona III at 19.7% voting preference with about 73% awareness. Look at this--TG's awareness is even higher than Ruffy's but the conversion is lower. Why so? Guingona's problem is really about conversion, not awareness. Solution? Pound those hands more, go to sorties more, explain your platform more than the others, and TG will probably make the grade.

Alex Lacson, a neophyte in politics, has a 33% awareness rating but a very high trust rating of 19.1%. Meaning, the more people learn about him, the more his trust or voting preference will increase and he is actually a threat to other senatoriables in the lower rung. Lacson has a bigger than average chance of clinching a Senate seat than the rest PROVIDED that he exposes himself more and make those critical rounds.

If, for example, Lacson gets a higher awareness rating, say that of TG Guingona at 73%, his voting preference would actually land him in the Magic 10. Look at Pia, whose awareness level is just 79% but about 46% will vote for her come May 10.

Look at Rey Langit, whose awareness level is at 59% but has a very low voting preference rating of 9.2% Meaning, the more you know about him, the least likely that you'll vote for him.

So, for others, the more they expose themselves, the least likely the people will vote for them. But, for newer faces, the more they expose themselves, the more people will vote for them. For new faces but bearing familiar names, it is not a matter of more exposure, it is a matter of trust. Therefore, the solution is not more media exposure; rather, more sorties, more doing the rounds and more grassroots support.