Thousands of Filipinos are expected to converge infront of the Chinese embassy today in what is billed as the biggest demonstration of Filipino views against Chinese actions in Scarborough Shoal. A Filipino-Chinese will lead the demonstration, which is being supported by several civil society groups.
I hate to say this, but this is wrong for three (3) reasons: one, this will add more tension to the already worsening Sino-RP relations. Both governments are now trying to resolve the impasse at Scarborough. Second, an involvement of citizens at this point will trigger numerous rallies throughout the world against Filipinos. Expect a retaliation from Sinos in countries where they dominate. Lastly, this will further embolden China to make unwise decisions in relation to Spratlys.
I just cannot blame my fellow Filipinos though. China continues to increase its military presence in the area. The tough stance taken by China in this issue endangered negotiations. The Philippines wants third party mediation which China rejected.
China's tough stance is expected since it is now encountering internal problems. There is a power struggle between the old guards and the new leaders within the Communist Party. There are two sides in the struggle: one, the Socialist side which thinks of further continuing China's progress without sacrificing political power and the other side, which believes in further opening the economy to capital and strengthening China's leadership in the region. Whoever wins in the struggle will affect or dictate the policy direction regarding the Spratlys.
Really, it is not in the best interest of China to continue this tough stance. For one, the reason why it continues to flourish economically is the fact that everything in Asia is stable. This is the only region in the world where there is no serious political tensions. This explains why there is a free flow of trade within the Asia-Pacific region because foreign investments are safely tucked. There is no volatility in the markets.
A "small-scale" war as suggested by the Youth chapter of the Chinese Communist Party is uncalled for. A disruption of the peace in Spratlys will attract mischief throughout the region. China is right now, miscalculating its chances in a "small-scale war".
Remember that we Filipinos are the best urban guerilla fighters in the world. If China attacks us, we will retaliate with terror.
At best, China will only deploy ten percent of its million man army. In a hand-to-hand combat, the Chinese reds will surely suffer defeat from the Armed Forces of the Philippines. What the Chinese don't know is that we have a thousand Manny Pacquiaos in our midst.
If China attacks our urban centers, remember there are thousands of Filipinos with small arms. Surely, urban guerilla tactics will be employed against the Chinese--both in areas where they attack us and in their homeland.
Filipinos will surely hit China where it hurts the most--their industries.
However, let it be said that this is not the way which we want this issue resolved. China's leaders must recognize that neo-imperialism is not the way to go. China must develop its Socialist economy towards Communism--the highest ideal. In Socialism, imperialism is not a necessary stage for development.