Persistent talk swaps reveal what some people knew all along---a recent survey commissioned by a mayoral candidate shows his opponent leading by a mile. An informant told this writer that Alfredo Lim, the current mayor of Manila is doomed to lose against former president Joseph Estrada. Estrada reportedly leads Lim by at least 12 percentage points, bigger than the previous month's 8 percentage points lead. When the figures were told to me, I said that the edge is not as significant, and the race, for me, is still neck-to-neck.
What Lim probably fails to see is the overwhelming support being given by residents of Tondo for Erap. Remember way back 2003, when huge hordes of Tondo residents stormed Malacanang palace demanding the return of Erap? Well, it seems that the people of Tondo will definitely express their undying support behind Erap once more at the polls.
Erap has a well-oiled grassroots machinery based in Tondo, a result of years of painstaking grassroots work by none other than former agrarian reform secretary Horacio "Boy" Morales. Tondo is the biggest voting block in Manila. Whoever gets the support of the mostly urban proletariat district gets cityhall.
Lim claims to have been born in Tondo but some records show that Lim was actually born in Bulacan, contrary to what he claims in public. Estrada meanwhile, is a bonafide Tondo-nite, born on the same hospital majority of the residents go to.
Seems like Erap will get his second wind in politics. He will be the first in history---a former president who ran in a mayoral post and won, big time.