Tuesday, May 14, 2013

What is the voter turnout in 2013 mid-term elections?

Are you not surprised that the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) until now has refused to divulge the voter turnout rate? Historically, at least 70-75% of the electorate cast their votes. In this elections, how many were able to vote? How many were disfranchised?

These stats are very important especially if you are a candidate for the national elections for two (2) reasons: one, if the turnout is less than seventy percent, you have a statistical chance of being in the winning circle. Those 45% of voters who weren't able to vote represent 24.75 million. Let's just say that you have a statistical chance of getting at least 10% of this figure, that is still 2.4million votes. Between the guy who manages to get the twelfth spot and you, that 2.4 million could give you more than enough to win or eclipse him (since the average margin between senatorial candidates is less than half a million).

Disfranchisement is one effective way of stealing someone's vote by preventing supporters of the candidate from voting.   Disfranchisers even target specific barangays whose residents are asked to inhibit themselves from voting for fear of harm or reprisal. Nowadays, disfranchisement is covert. Operators ask voters identified from the other side to produce pieces of evidence so as to frustrate them from voting.