The Communist Party of the Philippines is celebrating its 45th year in armed struggle today. Wow. That long huh?
I don't know with you, but Mao Zedong's own army did not wage protracted war that long. I mean, forty five years?
There are just two things that probably happens when one wages a protracted war--either your forces tire out and eventually resort to a regularization of your armed forces or you eventually morph into something different.
Of course, the Philippine situation is different from other countries. An argument was put forward before--if the Philippine revolution took 300 years before it became a success, then, what would prevent the NPA from waiting that long too?
This is one of the most misunderstood thing in Philippine history. For one, it is not true that it took 300 years for the Filipinos to finally break out and oust the Spaniards. Prior to 1896, there were no revolutions--only revolts from different areas, no continuity or similarity of causes. The actual outbreak of the revolution only lasted for about four years of vigorous organizational work. This explains why there was a series of simultaneous uprisings because every single town knew about the Katipunan plan.
What the present CPP-NPA-NDF lost was this thing called "initiative". The present conditions do not justify a Socialist revolution.
More than ever, there is a need for a Socialist revolution in the Philippines. However, what is needed right now is a re-examination of present political and socio-economic realities. There is a need to admit that the present economy of the Philippines is that of a consumerist economy being controlled by a few elite families.
By re-examining Philippine reality, the revolutionary struggle will transform itself into something different in approach. For example, history would show that a shift of power is possible without engaging the enemy into a long, drawn-out battle coming from the countrysides. The struggle right now should be examined and given another chance of success.