Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Its Official---BINAY-POE no more and possible scenarios

So its official---the possibility of a BINAY-POE tandem is no more. Senator Grace Poe has said that she and the vice president have different styles in managing affairs. Poe believes in transparency while it's not the case with Binay, according to Poe.

I have very reliable information that Poe spent close to three full hours with Pnoy discussing 2016 than what Mar Roxas spent with the president about his plans a year from now. Pinoy and Poe reportedly talked about specifics, one example is commitments and the other, campaign funds.

Here are the possible scenarios:

1. Medium to high probability of a Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem. This is being pushed by several well-meaning members of the President's official family who do not want Binay to replace Pnoy. This sector belongs members of civil society who helped propel Pnoy to the presidency.

If this happens, the Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem will be adopted by several political parties, NGOs and POs under a broad coalition which name is still being finalised as of this moment. This coalition is a merger of traditional and non-traditional political parties and groups and its battlecry seems to toy with the idea of infusing "new blood" into the country's political bloodline.

The thing is, behind this tandem is a big group of Big Businessmen some of which claim Iberian ancestry and others, American and Chinese. There are several PMA classes who likewise support or seemed to be hot with the idea.

Seems that Pnoy will replicate what his mother did---endorse Mar Roxas at the onset and then slowly shift support to the Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem as the election day nears. This is what Cory did to Ramon Mitra whom she initially endorsed only to shift invariably to FVR when the election day nears.

2. Several political personalities seemed to be avoiding Mar like a plague. Mar will probably find an LP member as his running mate if talks on the Poe-Mar or Mar-Poe tandem bogs down. There are speculations of a Roxas-Trillanes IV tandem which is quite acceptable to several members of the Aquino administration.

3. How about Binay? Who'll be his running mate? Manny Pangilinan is out. Cynthia Villar had said her husband is not thinking or considering going back to the presidential mode. Villar however hinted that three Nationalist Party members are considering the possibility of 2016 elections..

Will it be a Binay-Duterte tandem? Sounds feasible and a very nice counterforce against Poe-Chiz.

4. NP will try and get some senatorial slots from the political party which they intend to coalesce with. Will they support a Cayetano-Trillianes tandem which the party knows does not have a Chinaman's chance of winning? I believe the first one who will abandon his presidential plans will be Cayetano, followed closely by Trillianes. However, an Escudero versus Trillianes fight is very interesting to see. Who'll win between them---a drunkard married to a beautiful lady or a narcissistic with a messianic complex? Do we have any other choice? How limited the field is!

This is a very serious problem. We are now experiencing a serious succession problem.