Wednesday, October 7, 2015

2016: Recalibrating History, Ushering in The New Old Order

In economics, there is such a thing as Kondratiev wave, a phenomenon of boom and bust, of economic cycles of expansion, stagnation and recession spanning 50 to 60 year cycles. Joseph Schumpeter was the first one to term it the "Kondratiev waves"

However, it was Mandel that shorten this observable cycle to 20-25 years.

In our history, we observe that the same human cycle exists, specifically in Philippine History. This just proves that our history is dictated much by dominant theoretical constructs that, if you look closely, are basically improvements of the same constructs that existed twenty or so years in the past.

That explains why I am particularly interested and concerned about the direction our country would take in 2016. The basic question really is---would it usher in a new order, a totally new direction which would actually be the alternative to 30 years of oligarchic rule.

To those students of Philippine history, keep a keen observation of this.

Remember that it only took twenty years of being under an oligarchic rule that we, as a Nation, through the leadership of One, changed tack and experimented in managing our affairs thru One Man rule. We seem to vacillate from soft approaches to extreme ones over a period of time. The  theoretical constructs as propounded by individuals who dominated the political era became the ascendant Idea.

Notice that the dictatorship came in 1972, and after fourteen years, a people's revolt ended it (1986). Sixteen years later, another revolt broke out, which essentially was a proxy revolt conducted by an elite versus another elite group (2002).

Next year, we will entering the 14th year after 2002. Will 2016 be another watershed in Philippine history, following another generational transition?


From dictatorship to Oligarchic Restoration
1972 14 1972
1986 44
2002 14
2016 2016



Notice that the same sentiments which resulted to the overthrow of previous administrations persist.
That same sentiments are in existence now, validated by a Pulse Asia survey this September which lays the major concerns such as wages and inflation, as purely consumer concerns. I am particularly comforted by the fact that I identified early on this particular concern as a major one two years ago--that from purely nationalist themes, people's concerns would shift to purely economic ones.

Within a span of 14 years, there has been a noticeable shift in public perception about governance. From calls of a "Bagong Lipunan" in 1972, it was transformed into " EDSA" (1986) then "tuwid na daan" (2010) and now it goes back to a "Bagong Lipunan" slogan, with Senators Grace Poe and Chiz Escudero calling for a "Bagong Umaga"

I am not entirely surprised by the call--this reflects the changing and vacillating views of the people regarding governance. Calls for change have been there since 1896, yet there has been no substantive change at all. Escudero is not hiding the fact that he is a friend of the Cojuangco-Angs--the family who benefited during the Marcos regime.

The question really now is---if we allow Escudero's group to ascend into power, will this be a sign of the restoration of the dictatorial powers which, forty four years ago, were the subject of public villification because of what they did to the country, and to its people?