Thursday, January 21, 2016

Plan to disfranchise voters meant to snatch victory from Vice President Binay

""Things are going as planned", says source on the alleged plan to disfranchise thousands of voters in the May National and local elections. The plan, says source, is meant to pull off a stunning victory for administration candidate Mar Roxas.

According to the source who is privy with these things, said that the plan was hatched as early as 2014. And the plan is simply directed against Vice president Jejomar Binay, who is still the biggest threat against Roxas' ambition.

Binay, says the source, remains the only legitimate and the most potent opposition against Roxas. As proven by numerous surveys, Binay has a very stable mass base of 25-30% of voters, a very formidable number in a four-way race. This base is loyal to him and any effort to make it appear that he's losing his traditional mass base would simply amount to nothing. No one would believe that Binay would get votes lower than 25% of the actual number of voters.

The next best thing going for Binay is he has a formidable grassroots machinery that would ensure protection of votes come election time. Poe-Llamanzares does not have that kind of network and neither is Duterte.

Poe's network is dependent on Chiz Escudero and by the time of the elections, their "makeshift" political party would have difficulty securing the last copy of election results because no traditional political party has given their blessing for the Poe-Escudero tandem.

In the end, Poe-Llamanzares would have to find a way to form her own network to protect her votes. And that is a formidable thing to accomplish in so short a time. Meaning, Poe-Llamanzares is vulnerable to cheating. 

This same thing applies with Duterte who, even with an army of volunteers, would simply find it extremely difficult to organize them in time for the elections. Yes, Duterte can find the solace of getting a copy of the election papers due to his being the official candidate of PDP-Laban, yet his funds are not enough to sustain a decent campaign much alone muster enough strength to organize a decent army of volunteers up to the precinct levels to protect his votes.

Even if his political enemies stay their hand and not order a cheating operation against Duterte, the candidate's numbers are not enough to pull off a surprise victory as expected by several analysts, who liken Duterte's run with that of Ramos in 1992.

Ramos' numbers and grassroots machinery were operated with military-like precision, and during those times, there was a feeling against traditional politicos and there was no alternative candidate except Ramos. In this elections, there is Poe-Llamanzares who is perceived to be a viable alternative for a Binay and a Roxas.

Duterte's would find it extremely difficult to muster a base higher than Binay's and Poe's. Therefore, victory would elude the feisty Davao mayor this time around. Let's see if the February survey shows an improvement in Duterte's numbers. If his survey ratings move up North, then, let's re-analyze.

So, in terms of actually pulling off a victory from the elections, the only two candidates with the most stable organizational base and with LGU support are Binay and Roxas.

The plan is simply ensure that Binay's survey numbers are not reaching the magic figure of 35% because that would simply ensure him electoral victory in a four-way fight. The latest survey pits him at 31%

Alleged "analysts" would be given media space to say that there is a statistical tie among Binay, Poe, Mar and Duterte. The latest survey actually does not reflect a statistical tie among the four contenders. The fact is, Binay has pulled away from the pack already.

Daring predictions:

1. Poe-Llamanzares' name would be included in the printing of the official ballots. The Commission on Elections would allow her inclusion. The previous plan was not to include her. However, this changed when Roxas' numbers remained at rock bottom levels. Administration strategists saw that potential votes for Poe-Llamanzares actually goes to Duterte and some to Binay, not to Roxas. There was a perception that, Poe-Llamanzares votes came from a base of administration supporters, hence, a fallout from Poe-Llamanzares would benefit Roxas. No such thing occurred.  The voter profile belies this. Poe-Llamanzares votes come from FPJ die-hards and the bulk from former Aquino supporters who hate Roxas. However, those from Aquino supporters are fragmented, and some are shifting and are actually rooting for Duterte, while some are going to Binay, the former number of voters who shifted to Poe-Llamanzares when the graft trials began,

Their plan is really make sure that Poe-Llamanzares name is there to divide voters against Binay and since there is already an indication that Poe's numbers would simply not pull away to 30 plus percentage points, and would even stay at 20-21%, it is more convenient and better if she runs, rather than make her efforts at disqualifying her from the race because she does not have the strength anyway to win. So, making her stay there is most convenient to justify a surprise pull off of Roxas in the end game.

2. Daring prediction--in the end, it is Mar Roxas who would win this electoral contest.

First of second parts...