Vice president Jejomar Binay is slowly pulling away from his political opponents in the Presidential run, with a very reliable survey placing him about 11 percentage points away from Grace Poe (second), Rody Duterte and Mar Roxas. The survey was not commissioned by the Binay camp, but was commissioned by a businessman and it was a foreign firm which conducted the survey.
I am not at liberty here of revealing the name of this survey outfit but this outfit is highly respected and reliable. This firm is usually resorted to as a perceptions measuring tool by foreign investors.
With February just around the corner, if Binay sustains this lead, it may well ease fears of a very contentious presidential derby by May. Many investors are apprehensive of such a scenario because it creates a politically destabilising situation. A highly contested presidential race could create a very nasty outcome not just in politics, but would also affect the markets.
Why do voters prefer Binay over the others? I think there is a perception that Binay is the right choice, for several reasons: First, Binay is not linked with any big business interest, unlike Poe-Llamanzares who is being financed heavily by Ramon Ang of San Miguel, the Zamora brothers who are involved heavily in mining and of Ricky Razon. The Ayala-Zobels and the Aranetas obviously backs Mar Roxas' campaign being their relative and who does not know that Filipino-Chinese businessmen are behind Duterte's campaign?
The thing here is this--these businessmen who are now financing the political futures of Poe-Llamanzares, Roxas and Duterte would surely ask for economic concessions once any one of them successfully gets elected to power. The fact is, as early as now, Poe-Llamanzares is thinking of tinkering with our Constitution to further widen foreign investor influence over our markets. Poe-Llamanzares wants foreigners to own land, a move that could severely weaken the position of our local businessmen. Probably, Poe-Llamanzares does not know about the effects of severe capitalist competition.
Besides, most of Poe-Llamanzares' funders have interests in public-private partnerships. San Miguel bids for 12 of 13 PPP projects that government has lined up. Same goes with Roxas' Ayala. The minute either one wins the presidency, expect these Big Businessmen to ask for billions as ROI. The fact is, I estimate that they would ask for a trillion pesos in exchange for the billions they poured into the campaign kitties of their candidates.
We all know that Binay is not financially as stable as that of Roxas or of Poe-Llamanzares. What I got from a source is that ordinary people are trying to help the vice president in whatever way possible for him to win this contest.
The second reason is that Binay has a provan track record as a public servant. He really helps people. He goes out of his way to help those in need. As a Makati resident myself, I have heard of legendary things that Binay did and continues to do for his people here. That explains why incumbent mayor Kid Pena stands to lose this elections, even if Abby does not campaign.
Pena and his minions are running around like amateurs, even allowing online casinos to operate in the city and messing around with the funds allocated for medicines and all, according to several senior citizens I had the pleasure of talking to.
The last reason is this---Binay would surely serve the people and the Office of the President with all honesty and I hate to counter what Senator Antonio Trillianes IV said that a plunderer will always plunder--I think it will be a totally different ball game this time around for Binay.
Binay knows that he will be risking his political future once he does an impropriety in office. If he runs as president, many groups would assume a "wait and see" attitude and will stalk him like crazy. If Binay commits any act that would even suggest impropriety, he would surely get what he deserves--a repeat of the coup which groups committed against Binay's compadre, Erap Estrada.