Friday, March 11, 2016

ON Supreme Court decision allowing Grace Poe to run

When my friend asked me what I think about the decision of the Supreme Court on Grace Poe, I told him it was a quid pro quo---probably the Supreme Court justices told Malacanang that " yes, we will grant your request for us to allow your "silent candidate" Grace Poe to run provided you do not intervene with our desire to make these elections cleaner than previous elections"

That day, March 8, should actually be commemorated as the day when the Highest Tribunal of the Land displayed its own brand of politics. Honestly, I really expected the decision to favor Grace Poe because it is to the best interest of Mar Roxas that Grace Poe's name still stays in that list. Why is it?

We are being conditioned to accept that there is a statistical tie among the four candidates: Poe, Binay, Duterte and Roxas (inspite of Roxas' ratings in a roller coaster trend). And the figure this administration wants us to think? Twenty percent (20%).

The planners of this future charade want us to think that every candidate would muster at best 9.6 million votes each. This administration wants us to believe that Mar Roxas has a guaranteed 7 to 8 million votes now.

I looked at the landscape and the winning figure for the presidency stands at 12-14 million votes. If there is 53.4 million voters right now, and the Comelec expects an 80% actual voter turnout, you only have 42.72 million votes.

Out of this 42.72 million, the Comelec already said that there would be between 2-3 million votes which would be considered spoiled or "disfranchised" due to the new machines.

So, the figure that these candidates (and their fraudsters) are targetting is just 40 million votes.

Okey now.

If these four candidates would each get 20%, that means 8 million votes each. Multiply 8 to 4, and you get 32,000,000 votes. What these candidates would be fighting for is the rest of the 8 million votes.

Miriam Defensor is good for 2-3 million, so subtract this from the 8 million, and you get a remaining 5 million votes. Divide 5million in four equal parts, and you get 1,250,000 votes for each. 

Okey, 2% of the voting pop is about 854,400 votes. Based on surveys, this figure represents those who are still not yet decided on who to vote. In the actual elections, this margin is enough to tide Mar Roxas thru.

Which means in a highly contested fight, the possibility of a Mar Roxas win is possible because that margin of about 500-800,000 votes could actually come from that 2% "swing vote." Meaning, it would be entirely possible and in fact, likely that this is the argument that this administration would use to justify a Roxas win thru fraud.

Do you get it? Again, let me repeat.

The people are already conditioned to accept that the elections are hotly contested and the four top contenders have a "steady and sure 20%" from the actual voter turnout.

As we have calculated, the actual voter turnout would probably be 40 million voters representing 80% minus 2-3 million due to spoilage.

20% of 40 million is 8 million. Since there is a statistical tie, presume that Poe, Binay, Duterte and Roxas each get 8 million votes. Sum them all up and you have 32 million votes. That leaves 8 million votes.

Subtract 2-3 million votes from 8 million, representing Santiago's votes, and you have a remaining 5 million plus and minus. Again, since there is a statistical tie, each candidate gets 1.25 million votes and that would leave you with 2% or 800,000 plus "swing vote" That swing vote is the expected margin of victory for Roxas.