Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Fearless Forecast on the May 9, 2016 Presidential elections

This early, one may actually determine the person who would win this May 9 Presidential elections.

1. This person is NOT endorsed or being supported by the present administration. This is always the case in the Philippines. Normally, our voters vote for "change" every single election---and "change" is interpreted as voting for the counter-elite, or "bago naman" is mis-interpreted as the other side of the political fence.

In the last 30 years POST-EDSA, all presidents who ran and won were members of the counter-elite of their presidents, i.e., Estrada from Ramos, Aquino from Arroyo and Arroyo from Estrada.

2. At no point in the elections in the past 30 years that a candidate won without an established traditional political machinery. Some people say that Ramos won without a political machinery. Wrong. He has his own Lakas-CMD aided by Cory Aquino's yellow army. Estrada had his Jeep while Pnoy had his own vaulted yellow groups.

3. The formula in winning the presidential race is:

3.1. Perception base is 1/4th of the expected volume of votes per candidate. To complete the picture, here are the other slices                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                voting success pie:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1/2 will come from what we describe as core base and 1/4 will come from command votes or votes generated by the traditional political party machinery. So, that is how political strategists count the votes for their candidates.