Wednesday, May 4, 2016

May 9 election cheaters have achieved their objective---create a Mar win

Some analysts are puzzled over this phenomenon called "Duterte." Many people are expected to vote for him come election time. I am seeing it almost everywhere.

Last night, I saw several Digong supporters wearing red t-shirts with their idol's face emblazoned on it, doing the rounds. They gave several tarps to padyak boys and those men actually hid those tarps. Obviously, these people are sympathizers but because they "know the system", they would, obviously, not show who are they voting for, for obvious reasons--they risk being "tagged" by the enemy (city hall officials) and being tagged means not being able to do what they want to do.

I also saw it last night in Mandaluyong and several other areas in the Metro. It seems like there is this "secret"  movement going on and everyone is expected to join it.

Duterte is calling for a massive show of force come May 7, ostensibly to show the "other side" meaning his political nemesis, namely, the Liberals and the Magdalos, that they cannot once more run roughshod democratic processes in this country. There are obvious signs of an impending electoral crisis, and this obviously does not bode well for all of us.

As predicted in this space many months ago, the aim of these cheaters is to debilitate the Vice president. Surveys upon surveys have been published ostensibly to show his numbers going South. Everyone knows that the real opponent of Roxas is really the Vice president for three reasons: first, Binay has the most extensive grassroots political machinery among the candidates; two, Binay has funds and logistical support from his friends and political allies and three, Binay is the only candidate acceptable to the middle class, business community and even with millennials. Yes, there are charges of corruption heaped against the vice president but this pales in comparison with several grievous sins committed by Mar (rape of Yolanda funds and the graft committed by his political associates and friends) and his "alleged counterpart", Grace Poe. Poe's grievous sin is her not disclosing her real citizenship status and this will hound her even if she snag this election.

What happened was, everyone, except Roxas, had legal and physical infirmities. Even Digong right now is being accused actually of both: legal, because he admitted receiving gifts from several people, including businessmen, when in office. Digong admitted that he has an ailment due to age, and even Binay said, Digong is suffering from three ailments.

With most candidates under a cloud of doubt, this is being used as enough reason to "expect" a Roxas win. As I wrote in this space several occasions already, these cheaters have achieved their goal of showing that every candidate has at least 20% of the votes. Roxas has achieved that because if you get the average of all his survey ratings from all survey firms, you would get an average of 20%.

Surprisingly, this goes as well with Binay, Digong and Poe, but obviously not with Miriam. They did not bother with Miriam anyway simply on the basis that voters will not vote for her anyway seeing her physical condition.

Yet, Miriam is still very much important in this electoral contest because she gets an average of 4-5% of the votes which in a 40 million voter turnout, is a substantial 2 million votes. In a four-way "tie", the scenario which these cheaters want to effect is really for a Roxas win even in the slimmest of margins. It can be 500k or at best, 1 million.

Again, let us compute.

We have 54.3 million registered voters, according to the Comelec. Comelec expects a turnout of at least 80% which roughly represents, 43.4 million. Out of this number, Comelec expects several "spoiled ballots" owning for technical reasons which represent at the most, 2 million. So, these candidates for the presidency are actually vying for the vote of around 40-41 million voters.

Now, analysts say, the four candidates, namely, Binay, Poe, Roxas, and Duterte have each 20%. That represents 80% of 40 million. That represents 32 million votes. What is left is 8 million votes which, if Miriam's core voters do vote for her, this figure would decrease by at least 2 million votes. So, we are seeing just six (6) million votes being contested by these candidates.

Supposing that the four gets 22% each. That is 88% of the votes. That is 35.2 million. Again, deduct 2 million which represents Miriam's core voters, and the margin of win so to speak for a candidate in this elections, range from a low of 500,000 to a high of 2 million votes.

This shows you how hotly contested this electoral contest is.

What I fear is this---for these cheaters to use what is happening right now with Digong and use it to justify a SWING VOTE. Meaning, there was a last ditch fall out of Digong and Binay supporters and these transferred to Roxas.

Remember: compared with Roxas, Poe is unlikely to benefit from the swing or fallout vote because everyone knows she does not have a political machinery to monitor and protect her votes. These exact statement could be used to justify cheating for Mr. Roxas.

Now....

There is another way for Mar to win---prevent the mobs from voting Binay or Duterte. How to do just that? Simple--shorten the voting time, which the Comelec already did. Instead of adding time to the process of voting because of the additional requirement of producing receipts, the Comelec even shortened the time for voters to vote. That means lesser votes for his political nemesis. The less number of voters mean more possibility of snagging enough voter support for Roxas.