Why The People Should Not Expect An AFP Intervention

The presscon of the two Juniors

I was listening to the speeches and answers of AFP Chief Esperon and PNP Chief Razon, two "Juniors" so to speak of Gloria during their joint "spontaneous" press conference inside Camp Aguinaldo. Among those they said, Esperon's answers came as "refreshing" to me. He reiterated the AFP's support to the "Spirit of EDSA". A few minutes ago, during Ramos' media interview, Ramos reiterated the "Spirit of EDSA". Last week, JDV also told one media personality about the "Spirit of EDSA". Esperon was very categorical in saying that they support the Spirit of EDSA.

The Spirit of EDSA

During one interview, Esperon said that this time, this political crisis should be solved by civil society. The challenge, Esperon said, is for civil society to prove to the people their will to resolve the crisis. Esperon said that civil society must resolve this crisis through the constitutional processes, meaning, it should be through the democratic institutions which the AFP helped restore after the constitutional authoritarianism of the Marcos era.

I am always reading between the lines here. I always write about the motivations of people, why people actually said these things and why it was said during that time. And it strikes me that Ramos' speech (a prepared one) and Esperon's including Razon's were written in the same vein. I mean, it seems that both Ramos and Esperon have talked prior to this.

Instead of seeing the press conference as an attempt by Gloria to show the support of the AFP-PNP behind her administration, it should be seen as a DEPARTURE from the usual tactics of tower strengthening.

Gloria weaker now than before

It is now very clear to me that Gloria is actually weaker than what people perceive. Since the call is a New Brand of People Power, this new breed will not involve the security forces. This crisis will be left for the civilian authorities to resolve themselves. The AFP and PNP are solidly behind the Filipino People, that is very evident. This is a GOOD SIGN. Why?

Fence-sitting AFP and PNP more dangerous to Gloria

A fence-sitting AFP and PNP is MORE DANGEROUS to Gloria than a WITHDRAWAL OF SUPPORT. Why? Because that's a sign that she's left without defense. That she's now as vulnerable as she was in 2005.

See it in a different light

We must see all of these events in a different light. EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 happened when the military broke the chain of command and supported the Filipino People in the rallies. Now, we will see none of the announcement of withdrawal of support. We will see a purist form of EDSA where the resolution will not be through the parliament of the streets. No.

Resolve through Constitutional Means

Rather, the resolution of this crisis will be resolved in the backrooms of Malacanang. Intense pressure from civil society, religious, business groups and Youth groups will make Gloria resign or, the most logical conclusion is put forward a letter handing over the reins of power to her constitutional successor due to inability to dispense her functions.

Impeachment? Again?

Senate President Manny Villar put forward impeachment. This is a vain attempt at resolving the issue since this impeachment will just be junked by a Kampi-dominated Congress.

Resignation is more acceptable

What is more potent than this and more logical is for Gloria to resign and hand over government to Noli. Why? First, that would be the most acceptable "change" that the oligarchs and the rich could tolerate. Forget about revolution. It cannot be done in the present dispensation. Admit it---we are dominated by a non-conscientious oligarchic system.

The New Form of EDSA

The new form of EDSA is a form wherein crisis will not be influenced by a military intervention. Again, I will reiterate my prognosis that this will be resolved PEACEFULLY, no coups, no withdrawal of support, no military intervention. It will be quick and bloodless. This is the newest breed of EDSA and would be the purest expression of People Power.

Gloria will be forced to go on leave and hand over power to a care-taker government to be headed by the Vice President.