Philippine events are beginning to interests skeptics like me. Since the failed 2005 attempt, I have turned into a skeptic because of the fact that previous events having the same emotional content as what I'm seeing right now had happened before with disastrous results. After the dust has settled, I saw a triumphant PGMA rising above everyone else. It was like a massacre. Political operators of Arroyo succeeded in neutralizing these forces, either using carrots or threats. Those who struggled against Arroyo were left in the lurch. Some lost all hope and decided to just reintegrate themselves in society by having a job somewhere else. What it achieved is that it left Malacanan without a conscience because almost all idealists who struggled with Arroyo at EDSA Dos resigned in their posts. Those who remained are technocrats or political operators who owe allegiance to Mr. Arroyo instead of being in government due to political principles.
The failed attempt also emboldened Arroyo and her gang of thieves. More and more cases of graft and corruption were reported. Since these people were allowed to rob, steal, and even kill opponents or those who shout against what they're doing, they contributed more to the dysfunctionalism that ensued. The Arroyo administration felt that no one can stop them. They saw themselves as invincible. The death of dissent all the more gave these grafters the space they need to continue stealing and robbing the people of their monies.
The intolerance being shown by this administration to criticisms and critiques could be the thing that could lead to its downfall. Its penchant for killing dissent and dissenters is now haunting them like crazy.
Now, people are starting to enjoy their newly-found voice. Seven years of silence, of tolerating every false move, every robbery of this adminitration has decidedly come to an end. Far from the claims of this administration that people are tired of marching and going to EDSA, Filipinos now are beginning to march to the streets again, trying to give this thing another chance. Every one knows that if these things do not come to a decisive conclusion, which, in this instance, is the ouster of Arroyo, they will not have that chance again.
Every day, groups have started marching, showing this government of their collective disgusts on what had happened. Lozada's testimony, though devoid of any documentary evidence, has been accepted as gospel truth. This is not a media spin nor a product of PR. No. People believed Lozada because they have lost every shred of trust in their government. In normal times, such characters as Lozada would have found it very difficult to even say such things to Arroyo. If the ZTE deal happened in 2001 or 2002, people would not even gave it a second's notice.
The palace must accept the truth---it has lost its mandate. Mandates do not emanate from ballots. No. Mandates are based upon the people's trust. A distrusted government does not have a mandate since the sovereign will is of the people's and not of Arroyo's and her lapdogs.
Executive Secretary Ermita today criticized civil society's call for change. Justice Secretary Gonzales even called those who oppose Arroyo as members of "evil society". These closet individuals are trying their hand at villification which, unfortunately, fail every time they open their blistered mouths.
If these mass mobilizations continue, I am inclined to believe what Sis. Mananzan of St. Scholastica and Dela Salle president Armin Luistro said--all these will lead to something major or bigger. It is inevitable. I believe them. They know the pulse of the people and the effects of their current activities to the middle class. I will believe them rather than self-proclaimed political analyst Peter Lim who said that it would be next to impossible to oust Arroyo. Mr. Lim, I do believe in the power of prayer and of karma. Nature's laws dictate that those who do evil deeds will reap the same force of evil that they have sowed. This seven-year itch to get rid of a tumour such as Arroyo is beginning to grow and take shape. It would not be long before this "itch" ends. And it ends Now.
Showing posts with label Philippine society. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Philippine society. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Incendiary situation on Friday
Three elements--oxygen, wood (or any flamable material) and spark--constitutes fire. This coming Friday is very critical and incendiary to say the least for this administration due to the confluence of three events:
1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the Hello Garci tapes controversy, again, reviving the issue. This is the oxygen.
2. People's opposition to charter-change which has been revived by palace factotums in a veiled attempt at perpetuating Arroyo to power beyond 2010. This is the flammable material
3. Lozada's appearance at the NAIA with the Senate as part of the continuing drama related to the ZTE probe. This could provide the spark needed to ignite change.
The Opposition said they will be massing up people to demand for the resignation of Arroyo. Arroyo, on Friday, will be at the Makati Shangri-la for a talk. I believe that the opposition knows that the Supreme Court will issue a decision which nullifies or puts to rest, the Hello Garci tapes issue by saying that the evidence does not prove the complicity of the president in the proven 2004 elections cheating. That the call was made not to influence the elections nor proves that Arroyo was in cahoots with election operator Garcillano in rigging the elections. Obviously, the SC already has a resolution and with them entering into a vote yesterday, the decision will definitely be issued on Friday.
As I wrote in the previous blog, these events will confluent this coming Friday. The only question that remains--will groups have the numbers to show this administration and the world that it has a formidable force to use against Arroyo.
If the Opposition and groups critical of this administration fail to mass up the numbers come Friday, it would further embolden Mrs. Arroyo and her mafia and provide her a sign that (a) her administration is not crumbling as being predicted and (b) that she should push through with her dastardly plan of changing the constitution to perpetuate herself in power.
Campaigns for her ouster would formally start on Friday and would probably last up to the week prior to the Lakas directorate meetings. The last few weeks of February could be very critical for the history of this country, for two things:
1. Any false move by groups critical of Arroyo could spell the end of any efforts at her ouster.
2. Any sign of violence could be used by Arroyo in declaring martial rule which, could be used as her armour against attacks from opposing groups.
If at all, violence is to be used by these critical groups, it should be managed and should be part of a whole plan ushering in the entry of patriotic elements of the military. Without this component, any moves by civil society would be rendered useless and inutile.
And if at all these groups are dead serious in their desire for change, they should involve other traditional groups like political parties to provide some muscle to all these efforts. Now is the time for them to unite against Arroyo. Now is the time to pour everything out. Not doing so would spell complete disaster and could allow Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010.
1. The Supreme Court will issue its decision on the Hello Garci tapes controversy, again, reviving the issue. This is the oxygen.
2. People's opposition to charter-change which has been revived by palace factotums in a veiled attempt at perpetuating Arroyo to power beyond 2010. This is the flammable material
3. Lozada's appearance at the NAIA with the Senate as part of the continuing drama related to the ZTE probe. This could provide the spark needed to ignite change.
The Opposition said they will be massing up people to demand for the resignation of Arroyo. Arroyo, on Friday, will be at the Makati Shangri-la for a talk. I believe that the opposition knows that the Supreme Court will issue a decision which nullifies or puts to rest, the Hello Garci tapes issue by saying that the evidence does not prove the complicity of the president in the proven 2004 elections cheating. That the call was made not to influence the elections nor proves that Arroyo was in cahoots with election operator Garcillano in rigging the elections. Obviously, the SC already has a resolution and with them entering into a vote yesterday, the decision will definitely be issued on Friday.
As I wrote in the previous blog, these events will confluent this coming Friday. The only question that remains--will groups have the numbers to show this administration and the world that it has a formidable force to use against Arroyo.
If the Opposition and groups critical of this administration fail to mass up the numbers come Friday, it would further embolden Mrs. Arroyo and her mafia and provide her a sign that (a) her administration is not crumbling as being predicted and (b) that she should push through with her dastardly plan of changing the constitution to perpetuate herself in power.
Campaigns for her ouster would formally start on Friday and would probably last up to the week prior to the Lakas directorate meetings. The last few weeks of February could be very critical for the history of this country, for two things:
1. Any false move by groups critical of Arroyo could spell the end of any efforts at her ouster.
2. Any sign of violence could be used by Arroyo in declaring martial rule which, could be used as her armour against attacks from opposing groups.
If at all, violence is to be used by these critical groups, it should be managed and should be part of a whole plan ushering in the entry of patriotic elements of the military. Without this component, any moves by civil society would be rendered useless and inutile.
And if at all these groups are dead serious in their desire for change, they should involve other traditional groups like political parties to provide some muscle to all these efforts. Now is the time for them to unite against Arroyo. Now is the time to pour everything out. Not doing so would spell complete disaster and could allow Arroyo to stay in power beyond 2010.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Are We to Blame for Graft and Corruption?
In Europe, hundreds of Catholic churches have been abandoned and left to ruins. Why? People have grown tired of the homilies which, instead of liberating, Europeans find nauseating. Icons have been smashed to smithereens because Europeans found Catholicism preaching a quite contrary doctrine than what is written in the holy scriptures. There are a few places in Europe where you could find a sizeable Catholic population, which I found to be quite sad since Europe once served as the bastion of Christianity in olden times. In fact, many missionaries who spread Christianity came from that part of the world.
In the United States, hundreds have abandoned their churches. Americans have outgrown their fancy of this religion. People are flocking to other Christian sects, despite campaigns by the church to invigorate the faith of the laity. Priests have been arrested by the state because of sexual harassment or embezzlement of funds.
Of course in Asia, Catholicism is also on the wane. Only two countries remain locked in the tight grip of Catholicism--the Philippines and a former Indonesian territory (I forgot the name). Catholicism remain strong in this country because this religion still exerts quite a strong hold over government and property. Yes, the Catholic Church remains the second biggest haciendero in this country, second of course to the state. They also own several corporations and stocks in major Philippine corporations. That's why they are still so influential here.
Since 2001, the Catholic Church has been looking for ways to increase their relevance in the lives of the Filipino. However, despite their efforts, thousands of Filipinos change religion everyday because whatever the Church does, the people don't seem to care about them anymore.
The Philippines is an important and strategic country for Catholicism because it is the only country in Asia where they can say, for certainty, that they still exert a majority hold in its population. Many Filipinos remain slaves of this religion. However, I do believe that in a few years time, the number of Catholics will slowly dwindle here. Why?
The Catholic church here is beginning to be like the Padre Damasos of Jose Rizal's novels. Look at what the CBCP said today--they are maintaining a critical collaboration stance with the Arroyo administration. What's worst, they even blamed the people for the rampant graft and corruption happening in this country. Imagine, the prelators of the Faith blaming their own flock for the increasing moral destruction of Filipino society? I thought that they are the exemplars of the moral code? I thought that it is their responsibility to preach and lead us to the right direction?
How things have changed since the death of Cardinal Jaime Sin. If the good cardinal is alive today, he definitely would not allow the Church to go to bed with the devil. These bishops should be ashamed of this. They have allowed themselves to be prostituted for a few gold and silver coins of the temptress of power.
In the United States, hundreds have abandoned their churches. Americans have outgrown their fancy of this religion. People are flocking to other Christian sects, despite campaigns by the church to invigorate the faith of the laity. Priests have been arrested by the state because of sexual harassment or embezzlement of funds.
Of course in Asia, Catholicism is also on the wane. Only two countries remain locked in the tight grip of Catholicism--the Philippines and a former Indonesian territory (I forgot the name). Catholicism remain strong in this country because this religion still exerts quite a strong hold over government and property. Yes, the Catholic Church remains the second biggest haciendero in this country, second of course to the state. They also own several corporations and stocks in major Philippine corporations. That's why they are still so influential here.
Since 2001, the Catholic Church has been looking for ways to increase their relevance in the lives of the Filipino. However, despite their efforts, thousands of Filipinos change religion everyday because whatever the Church does, the people don't seem to care about them anymore.
The Philippines is an important and strategic country for Catholicism because it is the only country in Asia where they can say, for certainty, that they still exert a majority hold in its population. Many Filipinos remain slaves of this religion. However, I do believe that in a few years time, the number of Catholics will slowly dwindle here. Why?
The Catholic church here is beginning to be like the Padre Damasos of Jose Rizal's novels. Look at what the CBCP said today--they are maintaining a critical collaboration stance with the Arroyo administration. What's worst, they even blamed the people for the rampant graft and corruption happening in this country. Imagine, the prelators of the Faith blaming their own flock for the increasing moral destruction of Filipino society? I thought that they are the exemplars of the moral code? I thought that it is their responsibility to preach and lead us to the right direction?
How things have changed since the death of Cardinal Jaime Sin. If the good cardinal is alive today, he definitely would not allow the Church to go to bed with the devil. These bishops should be ashamed of this. They have allowed themselves to be prostituted for a few gold and silver coins of the temptress of power.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Soros hand in recent Philippine events
There was a surprising revelation that escaped everybody's attention during the ZTE hearings. I remember one senator (I think its Senator Enrile---just review the transcripts) asking Joey de Venecia who'll back him up financially in the NBN deal. Without batting an eyelash, Joey retorted the magic word: “Soros”.
Ah, Soros.
We all know who George Soros is. For those who don’t, three words to remember about him---Open Democracy (which I espouse), Asian Financial Crisis and Billionaire. He’s the Richard Branson of the financial world. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew once blamed him for the Asian financial crisis. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad once accused him of manipulating world markets for his own ends. I remembered FVR telling everybody that George Soros' hand was behind the spate of coups during the Cory Aquino regime.
Who's Soros?
Soros heads the Soros Management Fund, a global operation which essentially promotes open societies. You can check Google or the website http://www.soros.org or www.opendemocracy.net for more details.
Various sources describe him as a Financial speculator, a political activist and even a philosopher. He was once a student of Karl Popper, the philosopher credited of having created the concept of Open Democracy.
Actually, Soros pushes for Open Democracy. However, some sectors attribute sinister political motives behind every Soros' action. Soros hates despots. He was once a victim of fascism. He experienced it first hand when, as a young Hungarian Jew, he suffered first-hand atrocities under Hitler’s regime.
Soros’ stake in the Philippines
Soros is known to finance revolutions. He did it at EDSA. He did it for the Rose Revolution in Europe. For some societies, his participation proved to be crucial. Others, like his part in the repudiation of Bush re-election campaign, was a failure. His 80 billion dollar empire stretches “ in the farthest reaches, in the ends of the earth”, so to speak.
Why finance a revolution in the Philippines?
Obviously, current political reality dictates that changes in the present political structure is in order. The Arroyo administration is slowly becoming despotic. Former US President Bill Clinton’s remark about his former classmate as being “the most feared woman in the Philippines” tells you a lot about how Americans perceive Arroyo’s regime. Analyzing the Philippine situation, there are five (5) things that justifies a regime change.
1. The Arroyo administration’s militarization of the state. The Philippine state is a garrison state, ruled by a chosen few, chosen more for their subservience to the Arroyo clique than anything else. Just looking at the Cabinet and their underlings says much about this administration. Retired generals populate sensitive posts, appointed more on their capabilities at producing financial results to the Arroyo clique than anything. Undersecretaries are mostly business associates of the First Gentleman. Other posts, like the Supreme Court, the Ombusman and even the COMELEC have been given to puppets of the clique.
2. Tendencies in centralizing economic gains. The “improving” economic condition of the Philippines is not a miracle. Globalization has opened the doors of free trade to Asia-Pacific economies. Philippine economic fundamentals remain strong, buoyed by overseas remittances and strong foreign portfolio investments. However, the vertical growth of the economy has not resulted to horizontal development because economic gains failed to redound or spill over to sectors at the middle and bottom rungs of the economy. The reason is simple---a chosen few, the elites, have cornered most of the economic gains. The middle class—the prime motor of economic growth in other countries— remained stagnant. There is limited social movement in this class because of the concentration of wealth. Worst, large chunks of this class have fallen to the lower rungs of the economic strata. Pitifully, the proletarian class has likewise stagnated and remained slave consumers, powerless, and unable to progress to the higher stage of development. This concentration of wealth to a few breeds dissent from disfranchised sectors, creating an inevitable revolutionary situation.
3. Increasing human rights violations. Critics of this administration have suffered most of the brunt of human rights violations, perpetuated by state security agencies. As expected, the ruling oligarchs and their political allies will protect their economic wealth against the counter-elite. Those outside of the politico-economic circle of influence, will, undoubtedly, move to grab this concentrated wealth for themselves. Quite expectedly, force from the counter-elite (dubbed “destabilization” by the ruling elite) will also be met with equal or stronger force as a form of self-preservation or self-defense by the state’s ruling clique. Violations of basic rights are therefore, expected from this power struggle, with underlings suffering the most.
4. Contracting, instead of expanding. With continued destabilization, the state slowly closes its doors to counter-elites, forcing it to isolation. Isolation dictates that trust should only be given to subservient interest groups. Favors, will therefore be dispensed to those who pledge allegiance to the clique. The state in this situation contracts, and this contraction will also affect not only the political realm but also in the economic realm. This is quite evident in the ZTE deal. The administration gave the deal to the Chinese because it was supported by a strong financial ally (Razon) and a political wheeler-dealer (Abalos). Such situations can never be avoided under the current state of affairs. The weakness of this administration is exploitable because it is being forced to give in to economic favours to maintain status quo. The continued destabilization coming from a disfranchised counter-elite forces slowly weakens the state and thus, as a natural reaction, the state tries to gain strength by expanding its support bases, which, in this case, can only come from members of the economic community and the political operators.
5. Weakening state security. GMA’s decision to scrap the ZTE deal due to political noise tells you a lot about this administration. It has been decisively weakened. It has exposed its weakness by bowing to political pressure. Yes, this blogger encouraged GMA to stand down, because, following political strategy, that’s the most logical survival tactic available to her. The explosive nature of the controversy could force her ouster. However, her decision actually resulted to prolong her rule only for a few weeks or months, not years. The state’s weak state will affect not only her administration, but will definitely affect even the economy.
Indications of an impending regime change
1. Strengthening of the peso. Reports say that the peso will hit 40 or even 37 by year’s end. Is this good or is this bad? Obviously, it’s very bad. The peso’s comfortable exchange rate is around 40-41 pesos for a dollar. Some sectors are spreading the rumour that it could hit 37 or even 30 by 2008. This is bad because a strong peso will undoubtedly affect the export sector. You will have a situation where hundreds of small and medium sized export enterprises will be forced to close down because of this. You’ll have a situation where families relying on remittances will receive lesser amount of money than before. When you have a strong peso, you’ll be lessening the purchasing power of the middle class and the remittance-dependent lower classes, resulting to increased poverty. And, you’ll also find thousands of Filipinos out of work because hundreds of export companies will be forced to close shop. When you have that kind of situation, you are creating a replica of what happened in Argentina many years ago.
2. Demoralization among the soldiers’ ranks. The AFP admits this. Reports say, Esperon will file coup d’etat charges against six lieutenants. Note that those involved here are lieutenants, not colonels and definitely, not generals. This indicates a massive number of demoralized soldiers and when you have that kind of situation, you definitely have a serious issue at hand. Defeats in the Southern arena of war continues and GMA’s trusty military puppets will definitely have a hard time convincing troops to remain loyal.
3. Increasing dissent in the disfranchised sectors of society. The ZTE deal exposed a raw nerve in the Filipino psyche. It fueled hate. It fanned the flames of paninibugho (for a lack of an English translation, I wrote the Filipino term here---my apologies), a feeling more serious than the Western concept of hatred.
4. Losing political base. There’s a split in the ruling clique brought by the ZTE deal. Concessions were granted to other members of the clique to the consternation of other loyal subjects of the clique. This sprawn a division which could lead to ouster of the head of the clique. Far worst, this shows a permanent crack in the relationship, which obviously, was a patron-client one. The lost of a stable political base further led to a weakening, which, in this case, puts the regime in a serious state.
Soros knows this. Expect a heightening of tensions between inter-elites which could lead to an implosion. This implosion will fuel destabilization which will lead to disintegration of existing relationships and possible ouster from power possibly in the first quarter of next year. Or even earlier.
Ah, Soros.
We all know who George Soros is. For those who don’t, three words to remember about him---Open Democracy (which I espouse), Asian Financial Crisis and Billionaire. He’s the Richard Branson of the financial world. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew once blamed him for the Asian financial crisis. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad once accused him of manipulating world markets for his own ends. I remembered FVR telling everybody that George Soros' hand was behind the spate of coups during the Cory Aquino regime.
Who's Soros?
Soros heads the Soros Management Fund, a global operation which essentially promotes open societies. You can check Google or the website http://www.soros.org or www.opendemocracy.net for more details.
Various sources describe him as a Financial speculator, a political activist and even a philosopher. He was once a student of Karl Popper, the philosopher credited of having created the concept of Open Democracy.
Actually, Soros pushes for Open Democracy. However, some sectors attribute sinister political motives behind every Soros' action. Soros hates despots. He was once a victim of fascism. He experienced it first hand when, as a young Hungarian Jew, he suffered first-hand atrocities under Hitler’s regime.
Soros’ stake in the Philippines
Soros is known to finance revolutions. He did it at EDSA. He did it for the Rose Revolution in Europe. For some societies, his participation proved to be crucial. Others, like his part in the repudiation of Bush re-election campaign, was a failure. His 80 billion dollar empire stretches “ in the farthest reaches, in the ends of the earth”, so to speak.
Why finance a revolution in the Philippines?
Obviously, current political reality dictates that changes in the present political structure is in order. The Arroyo administration is slowly becoming despotic. Former US President Bill Clinton’s remark about his former classmate as being “the most feared woman in the Philippines” tells you a lot about how Americans perceive Arroyo’s regime. Analyzing the Philippine situation, there are five (5) things that justifies a regime change.
1. The Arroyo administration’s militarization of the state. The Philippine state is a garrison state, ruled by a chosen few, chosen more for their subservience to the Arroyo clique than anything else. Just looking at the Cabinet and their underlings says much about this administration. Retired generals populate sensitive posts, appointed more on their capabilities at producing financial results to the Arroyo clique than anything. Undersecretaries are mostly business associates of the First Gentleman. Other posts, like the Supreme Court, the Ombusman and even the COMELEC have been given to puppets of the clique.
2. Tendencies in centralizing economic gains. The “improving” economic condition of the Philippines is not a miracle. Globalization has opened the doors of free trade to Asia-Pacific economies. Philippine economic fundamentals remain strong, buoyed by overseas remittances and strong foreign portfolio investments. However, the vertical growth of the economy has not resulted to horizontal development because economic gains failed to redound or spill over to sectors at the middle and bottom rungs of the economy. The reason is simple---a chosen few, the elites, have cornered most of the economic gains. The middle class—the prime motor of economic growth in other countries— remained stagnant. There is limited social movement in this class because of the concentration of wealth. Worst, large chunks of this class have fallen to the lower rungs of the economic strata. Pitifully, the proletarian class has likewise stagnated and remained slave consumers, powerless, and unable to progress to the higher stage of development. This concentration of wealth to a few breeds dissent from disfranchised sectors, creating an inevitable revolutionary situation.
3. Increasing human rights violations. Critics of this administration have suffered most of the brunt of human rights violations, perpetuated by state security agencies. As expected, the ruling oligarchs and their political allies will protect their economic wealth against the counter-elite. Those outside of the politico-economic circle of influence, will, undoubtedly, move to grab this concentrated wealth for themselves. Quite expectedly, force from the counter-elite (dubbed “destabilization” by the ruling elite) will also be met with equal or stronger force as a form of self-preservation or self-defense by the state’s ruling clique. Violations of basic rights are therefore, expected from this power struggle, with underlings suffering the most.
4. Contracting, instead of expanding. With continued destabilization, the state slowly closes its doors to counter-elites, forcing it to isolation. Isolation dictates that trust should only be given to subservient interest groups. Favors, will therefore be dispensed to those who pledge allegiance to the clique. The state in this situation contracts, and this contraction will also affect not only the political realm but also in the economic realm. This is quite evident in the ZTE deal. The administration gave the deal to the Chinese because it was supported by a strong financial ally (Razon) and a political wheeler-dealer (Abalos). Such situations can never be avoided under the current state of affairs. The weakness of this administration is exploitable because it is being forced to give in to economic favours to maintain status quo. The continued destabilization coming from a disfranchised counter-elite forces slowly weakens the state and thus, as a natural reaction, the state tries to gain strength by expanding its support bases, which, in this case, can only come from members of the economic community and the political operators.
5. Weakening state security. GMA’s decision to scrap the ZTE deal due to political noise tells you a lot about this administration. It has been decisively weakened. It has exposed its weakness by bowing to political pressure. Yes, this blogger encouraged GMA to stand down, because, following political strategy, that’s the most logical survival tactic available to her. The explosive nature of the controversy could force her ouster. However, her decision actually resulted to prolong her rule only for a few weeks or months, not years. The state’s weak state will affect not only her administration, but will definitely affect even the economy.
Indications of an impending regime change
1. Strengthening of the peso. Reports say that the peso will hit 40 or even 37 by year’s end. Is this good or is this bad? Obviously, it’s very bad. The peso’s comfortable exchange rate is around 40-41 pesos for a dollar. Some sectors are spreading the rumour that it could hit 37 or even 30 by 2008. This is bad because a strong peso will undoubtedly affect the export sector. You will have a situation where hundreds of small and medium sized export enterprises will be forced to close down because of this. You’ll have a situation where families relying on remittances will receive lesser amount of money than before. When you have a strong peso, you’ll be lessening the purchasing power of the middle class and the remittance-dependent lower classes, resulting to increased poverty. And, you’ll also find thousands of Filipinos out of work because hundreds of export companies will be forced to close shop. When you have that kind of situation, you are creating a replica of what happened in Argentina many years ago.
2. Demoralization among the soldiers’ ranks. The AFP admits this. Reports say, Esperon will file coup d’etat charges against six lieutenants. Note that those involved here are lieutenants, not colonels and definitely, not generals. This indicates a massive number of demoralized soldiers and when you have that kind of situation, you definitely have a serious issue at hand. Defeats in the Southern arena of war continues and GMA’s trusty military puppets will definitely have a hard time convincing troops to remain loyal.
3. Increasing dissent in the disfranchised sectors of society. The ZTE deal exposed a raw nerve in the Filipino psyche. It fueled hate. It fanned the flames of paninibugho (for a lack of an English translation, I wrote the Filipino term here---my apologies), a feeling more serious than the Western concept of hatred.
4. Losing political base. There’s a split in the ruling clique brought by the ZTE deal. Concessions were granted to other members of the clique to the consternation of other loyal subjects of the clique. This sprawn a division which could lead to ouster of the head of the clique. Far worst, this shows a permanent crack in the relationship, which obviously, was a patron-client one. The lost of a stable political base further led to a weakening, which, in this case, puts the regime in a serious state.
Soros knows this. Expect a heightening of tensions between inter-elites which could lead to an implosion. This implosion will fuel destabilization which will lead to disintegration of existing relationships and possible ouster from power possibly in the first quarter of next year. Or even earlier.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)