Update 1: Automated elections going smoothly. Thank God!

So, far, so good.


The first automated elections is running smoothly except for some irregularities reported in some parts of the country and outbreaks of violence in Abra, Mindanao and parts of Luzon.


It took Mrs. Arroyo six minutes to finish shading all her preferred candidates. She did not use a codigo. Liberal party vice president Mar Roxas also completed his in Roxas City while his wife, Korina Sanchez looked on. Kris Aquino already finished hers in Bel-Air Makati while in Bulacan, Presidentiable Eddie Villanueva also finished in less than eight minutes. He was the first presidentiable to vote. 


All the PCOS machines performed well, except for one polling place in Bulacan where Maricar Bautista of ABS-CBN reported a problem with one of the PCOS machines. Smartmatic-TIM promised to replace the machine immediately.


By the way, Cesar Quiambao, in numerous press releases and several ADs denied links with SMARTMATIC-TIM. Quiambao, a close associate of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo denied that he's connected with the winner SMARTMATIC-TIM. His Strategic Alliance Holdings Incorporated reportedly lost in the bid. 


The Smartmatic-TIM who won the automation bid, is different from the partner of the Quiambaos. Or so you know.


Though it looks that the automation will be as smooth as silk, don't be too confident. Don't let your guard down. 


These PCOS machines are used to COUNT not just RECEIVE your ballots. 


Even if they received the ballots which were fed into the machine, the most important feature of this machine is to ACCURATELY READ THE VOTES. 


IF, at the end of the day, these machines fail to accurately and precisely READ THE VOTES, then, this elections will still be considered a failure.


Remember that the elections do not end with the voting--it ends with the counting and proclamation of the winners. 


If there was accurate counting of the votes but the poll body fails to proclaim a winner due to post-election controversies, then, this elections will still be rendered a failure.


I pray to GOD that these elections go as smoothly as possible. We don't want violence. 

The Tipping Point

Okey, we have 50 million registered voters of which, only between 80-85% will be able to cast their votes. Analyze your Comelec data and you'll arrive at a figure closer to 40 million voters, plus or minus two, who will actually cast their votes. (10 million obviously, will not be able to vote. So there.)

So, if you expect 40 million to vote, how many of these votes will actually be counted in favor of the candidate? With a plus or minus two, assume that only around 38 million votes will be counted, either manually or electronically.

Meaning, there is an expected 2 million or so votes wasted, either due to ballots being considered "spoiled" due to human error or simply wasted due to human sabotage.

Now, if 40 million votes, that would mean they'll vote in about 250,000 clustered precincts each having 2,000 registered voters each. Picture the physical arrangement of every precinct. One precinct can actually house only 30 or 40 or so seats (one classroom=one precinct). Make that 50 seats, give the Principal the benefit of the doubt that she can actually arrange the room to accommodate 50 seats.

So, in one batch, you have 50 voters lumped in one classroom, voting. Divide 2,000 by 50 and you have 40 batches, all in one precinct. How many minutes will it take for a voter to complete the almost 2 feet long ballot? 8 minutes.

So, if humans are robots and everything goes well, 40 batches will take only 320 minutes which is about 5.2 hours. If the precinct opens at exactly 7 in the morning, expect the entire process to complete by 12pm. Now, give each voter at least 15 minutes each (finding his name, going to the election officer to get his ballot, sitting, thinking whose name to shade and so on and so forth), it would take well over 10 hours to finish the voting. So, the entire thing would probably complete at well, 5pm, just an hour early than what the Comelec expects.

And we know for a fact that not all precincts open AT EXACTLY 7AM. If a precinct loses just ONE HOUR, meaning it opens at 8AM, chances are that 200 voters will surely get disfranchised. For every hour lost, 200 voters get the boot.

Picture that happening in 1,000 precincts nationwide and you have 200,000 disfranchised and extremely angry voters.

Picture that happening in one city, and you have a very irate citizenry. Replicate that in one province,and you have a hot spot. Do that in Mindanao, and you have a situation going.

This is a tipping point which, if you look at it, do not even consider election violence or physical sabotage or jamming of counting machines or what-have-you.

It simply showed how disfranchisement can cause a lot of ruckus and probably lead to a revolt.

That is just casting of votes. Wait if you hear about the COUNTING OF VOTES.

Since the entire voting will end at 6pm, and that's nearly dark in some places, many things might happen, one of them, physical sabotage.

Many classrooms in our country are not so well lighted. Many cheaters collude with teachers during elections and jammers as small as a car key can very well, sabotage the counting. According to Comelec rules, if the machine fails to transmit the data, then, the teachers are expected to resort to manual counting of the ballots.

So, very simple. Even in areas with automated elections, chances are, excuses will be made to justify manual counting. Will that affect tallies in national posts? Yes. Will it affect tallies in local posts? Surely no. Local candidates will not allow that to happen. Yet, expect that also to happen since the names of local candidates are in the bottom rung of the 2-feet ballot.

If a precinct chooses to manually count, that will take at least two days for a minimum sized area and at least four days for those counting in the provincial level. That will surely frustrate people and will increase tensions.

Imagine where counting takes 5 days and nationally televised poll counts such as the PPRCRV, NAMFREL and quick counts of television networks show a national candidate, say Villar, leading. Five days are a lot to cook up something. Quick counts are not official counts, but traditionally, they influence politics more than anything else.

What if, example, these quick counts show varying figures, what then? How will the Comelec resolve that if only a few, say 30% of areas successfully counted the votes electronically while the rest of the 70% resort to manual? That is surely, an expected delay in the entire poll process.

A 30% automated count will not be substantial in a two or three-way fight, especially in the presidential polls. And this is not un-likely to happen. Fact is, many people expect this to happen.

That is the tipping point.

As I wrote some weeks ago, the winner in the May 10, 2010 elections will be the one who will stand up and seize the initiative. The winner will not win by count. No. He will win by default.

Dangerous Times Ahead

There are three things which we need to watch in the coming days and weeks. First, last ditch attempts at charter change. Second, possible administration measures to justify extra constitutional means to perpetuate the status quo and third, eventual outbreak of dissent due to public frustration of a non-election scenario.

This administration should not risk a no election scenario. For the past weeks, there is a noticeable increase of prep activity for the elections. Through this ingenious events, it successfully prepared the public to expect an elections to happen in May 10, 2010. People are desirous already of change next year and to frustrate them would definitely mean big trouble. As I wrote in previous entries, wide-spread aggression is possible if this government frustrates the people's desire for change.

Two signs that lead people to surmise a no-election scenario: one, the failed bidding of the automation of the elections at COMELEC and the charter change deliberations next Tuesday.

Though there may have been legitimate reasons, one fact remains that the bidding failed. COMELEC has until May 30 to come up with a new set of bidders and a new bidding process. They can't allow the previous bidders to re-bid. That's a no-no. If they do that, the entire process will be perceived as tainted and it would definitely affect the entire conduct of the coming elections.

It's already May 14 and is 16 days enough to re-do the bidding? COMELEC should speed it up otherwise, public support for a constitutional means for change would surely crumble and justify an extra-constitutional way out of the Arroyo mess.

While prospects of automation hangs in the balance, Arroyo supporters at the House are expediting charter change. So, both--the COMELEC bidding and charter change--are heading towards one deadly deadline.

If charter change succeeds, they'll be elections anyway, albeit, not presidential, but parliamentary. Yet, if automation fails, and it's back to manual counting, the entire integrity of the whole electoral process is definitely suspect and renders the entire constitutional process void ab initio.

That justifies a term extension that would probably be backed up by a pro-Arroyo military. National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales already suggested this some months ago.

Now, is this is a possibility? Yes. Remember that come 2010, class 1978 will be the dominant player in both the AFP and the PNP. With a pro-Arroyo class as the ascendant class, the possibility of either Martial rule or a term extension is there.