Gloria can't seem to get it

Yesterday, Gloria Arroyo lambasted her critics for plunging the country into post-election instability. She vowed to stay until 2010, guiding and leading what she said as the "ship of state" with a "steady hand". Obviously, her statement was an attempt to counter a Time magazine article which described her government as a government "under siege."

Deflection

Arroyo's statement is a classic example of how her government tries to vainly solve a continuing crisis by always deflecting the issues and blaming others for the things that the government did. For example, who created the ZTE mess? This anomalous deal was never initiated and never concocted by the anti-Arroyo groups. It was purely a concoction of the enterpreneurial minds of her people. And what about the bribery which happened right inside the palace? Was it, again, a "spin" made by the Anti-Arroyos? No. Her close political adviser, Ronnie Puno, was the one who made those classic buyouts.

Is Arroyo prepared to bribe 85 million pinoys?

She said in her statement that she'll solve the political crisis threatening to end her regime. How? By offering millions of pesos more to her critics, supporters and would-be critics? Is Arroyo prepared to "buyout" 85 million Filipinos, especially the 11 million Filipinos living in sub-human and extreme poverty? How about the 45 million Pinoys who think that they are poor? Is Arroyo prepared to buy their loyalties out in exchange for power until 2010?

Arroyo is misled

I think Arroyo is being misled to think that she is governing this administration in the right way. She and her advisers are always saying that they're the ones responsible for the growth of the economy. Are they kidding? They, themselves, say that the only thing that keeps this country afloat is the billions of dollars worth of overseas remittances. There are, however, real concrete gains in economic development. Yet, these developments, I repeat, are natural consequences of regional economic growth.

Peso is strong because US economy is weak

The peso remains strong because the US economy remains weak and the dollar trades so low against other currencies due to the continuing housing loan problems. The Philippine economy continues to strengthen not because of government intervention. As I wrote in previous entries, the economy grew independently of politics. It has been insulated. That's why I always write here that whatever form of government the people decides to install in exchange of Arroyo's will always succeed because it will never affect the way we do business or it will not stop the flow of foreign investments in the country.

Arroyo--a threat to democracy and economic stability

Arroyo's continued stay in power actually remains a threat to the continued economic growth and stability of this country. Why? Because (1) foreign investors will think twice in entering into government contracts because of the consequences of the ZTE mess. Second, there will always be political instability because issues hounding her have achieved a new level of vigour--that of graft and corruption. The legitimacy issue has never been so life threatening to Arroyo because of the Filipinos' penchant for letting things go. However, bribery and corruption issues are totally different things. It affects moral sensitivities which Arroyo would find very hard to counter. She may be an illegimate leader or an election cheat. That's okey. But, if she is now being portrayed as a cheater, a liar and worst, a briber, then, Filipino moral sensitivities are sure to be pricked quite quickly.

Why?

For Filipinos, bribery and graft and corruption reflect social inequities in graphic fashion. Filipinos can always accept sub-human working conditions, human rights violations here and there, low wages, etc. for as long as they feel that there is an equitable system working for them. Filipinos have this sense of wanting to achieve something. For example, Filipinos will rationalize that the reason why they have'nt been promoted could be due to some factors, which are mostly, about them (attitudes, etc.).

However, if Filipinos realize that the real reason why they remain poor, working for low wages, etc. is due to the system, then, it's time for them to militate against this system.

Quick People Pulse

Based on surveys, Filipinos have this collective feeling that there's terribly wrong with the system because of the way it is being governed. There are enough laws, the people say, for the country to be "great again". However, mismanagement seems to be the reason for all their miseries. What's worst, the inability and the inadequacy of the leadership to manage are being solved at the level of transactional politics. This government, the people think, is not solving the core problem of mismanagement. In fact, it made attempts at solving the issue through bribery, which the people found to be despicable.

Lack of trust affects governance

This extreme lack of trust by the people of their government threatens democracy because it fosters widespread dissent. There is an underground reservoir of dissent waiting for a spark to explode. Since this government feels and sees itself being threatened daily with instability, it will always be under siege. And in times of seige, there's nothing more honorable than hoisting the white flag.

Malacanang's exit strategy

Romulo Neri is a very important man nowadays. He's expected to show up at the Senate hearings to shed light on the ZTE deal. ANC's Ricky Carandang had a chat with him a few days ago and he seems unaffected by it all. Remember that Neri told Carandang and the Inquirer that he received an indecent proposal from ZTE officials via Chairman Abalos involving millions of dollars. Neri was previously the head of the government's economic planning portfolio. That department was responsible in approving such deals because its the one who gives the justification for government to undertake of such a project. If Neri tells the unvarnished truth, that he was bribed or that an attempt to bribe him did happen, then, this issue is finished. What government must do is just pressure the Supreme Court to declare it unconstitutional, throw the deal to the waste basket and get on with running the government. The SC decision is the most convenient way out of this mess. The government will not lose face to the Chinese. Likewise, the Chinese will definitely understand it if this deal does not push thru.

However, this issue will continue in another front. Neri's revelation will change the direction of this controversy. Right now, all attention seems to be directed at the gang of FG and Abalos. The attacks seem to be pointing to the palace, specifically at the presidency.

Issue Shifting

Neri's testimony is important because it would prove whether there really was a bribery. A mere attempt could easily persuade the public that the deal was tainted with corruption. The onus of proving otherwise, remains with Abalos. However, Abalos will find it very hard to convince the body politic that he did'nt receive a single cent from the Chinese.

If I were Mrs. Arroyo, i'll allow Neri to nail Abalos and the ZTE guys. Judging from the amount of publicity this controversy has generated, Neri's controversy will condemn Abalos to perdition, conveniently allowing FG and Mendoza to distance themselves from the payoff scandal. If this happens, the issue has been effectively contained because it'll be limited to just what the public or government anti-graft prosecutors must do to Abalos. Reports say that Mendoza is clean. I believe them. News articles say that FG was just used by Abalos to put pressure on ZTE's rivals, which, in this case, Joey de Venecia's group.

Malacanang's spinsters should (1) allow Neri's testimony to point to Abalos as the "it" guy. They should write stories that'll say that Abalos actually used his influence and pressured the First Gentleman to accede to this deal. That way, all blame will be directed at Abalos.

Impeachment

Let Abalos sacrifice himself for the sake of the palace. Abalos will definitely be allowed to retire in peace, because he can't be impeached anyway. It'll be a wasteful use of public funds if Congress files an impeachment case against him. The old man is retiring from the Comelec anyway. Common sense dictates that, for the sake of peace, Abalos should be allowed to end his term with "dignity" eventhough he does'nt deserve it.

The Exit Strategy

The main question is this---will Abalos be party to this strategy? Will Abalos allow himself to be further maligned by this scandal? There are precedents anyway. Perez' s case is one. Joc-joc's case is another. Perez is now enjoying the fruits of his indecency somewhere in Batangas while Joc-Joc remains comfortable in his high security cell in the United States. After all of his helter-skelter thing, Abalos has the chance to "wither away", so to speak, a few months from now, when all things simmer down. If I were Abalos, i'll accept this exit strategy. Anyway, if all reports are true, he already received the monies from the Chinese. He can retire in peace. ZTE already paid him. If the SC decides that government should not push for this deal, then, ZTE cannot really demand Abalos to return the money, right? It'll be convenient to all parties to just allow another body to give them the way out. And the SC is the one such body.

Joey's fate

This NBN project will still be given to Joey's group. I don't know if you noticed, but all of these Chinese deals have been bagged by JDV's group. They just raised this thing because one project was not given to them. Civil society groups should scrutinize all Chinese deals and they'll find that JDV's group got all these projects (i.e., Northrail, etc.). Surely, Malacanan will give Joey some projects just to silence him. Its just a question of when. I think we will see Joey in the next few years.