Vice President Jejomar Binay still tops presidential survey inspite of billion peso building controversy

A source reveals to me a survey conducted during the height of accusations of graft against Vice President Jejomar Binay. The survey reveals that Vice President Jejomar Binay is still the top man to beat, with 42%, followed by 12% favoring Grace Poe, Estrada at 9%, with Chiz Escudero and Mar Roxas sharing the fourth spot with 8% and Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr at 7%.

Looking at the surveys, even if three of the names included in this survey join forces, their respective ratings still are insufficient to even go at par level with Binay's.

Now, where are the two accusers of Binay--Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes, the very first ones who declared an intention to run for President and Vice president, respectively? Well, curiously, Cayetano got a negative rating (negative 12) and Trillanes (negative 17).

So there. Controversies surrounding Binay's own version of a Burloloy building failed to sully the reputation of the vice president, as far as the people are concerned.

Seemed like Binay has achieved a status which only Erap got--a Teflon-like personality.

Hey wait, this survey was conducted before Senator Miriam Santiago announced her intention of running for the top post. Now that she already threw her hat unto the ring, the question is--will this change the survey ratings the next time? Will Santiago's announcement affect Binay's standing? Will Santiago get the expected fall out from Binay's?

Let us see. For now, seems like the Public is believing the yarn spun by Binay's handlers that all these accusations are just plain and simple politics.

By the way, these figures are already "out in the open" in a very tight circle of this country's influencers.

Vice President Jejomar Binay remains No. 1 in Presidential surveys

Senator Antonio Trillanes IV--
negative percentage points in soon-to be released survey

During an editorial meeting of a publication, one of the persons who attended the meeting shared an information which she got from a very reliable source--that despite the attacks against Vice President Jejomar Binay, the Vice President remains still the top bet in the presidential surveys.

Fact is, she says, two of the Vice President's attackers---Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV---got negative survey percentage points and are now out of the top 5.

I don't want to pre-emp the release of the surveys made by the top survey firms in the country, but, according to highly reliable information, Binay remains on top, followed by Grace Poe, Chiz Escudero, Miriam Defensor Santiago and Bongbong Marcos Jr. Mar Roxas remains at sixth place, followed by Trillanes and Cayetano, who both got negative percentage points.

So there.

Malou Tiquia, a friend, is correct--these attacks will not lead to Binay's downfall.

Jejomar Binay leads prexy bets--the question is--is he the one, really?

Photo politics in the works?

The fifth choice shaking the hands of the first choice. The photo taken by Senator Loren Legarda of Mar Roxas shaking the hand of Vice president Jejomar Binay is going the rounds. Of course, pro-Binay supporters would say, that's an early concession made by Mar. Is Mar Roxas giving up the ghost this early? Others who know their politics say that photo, though it was of no malice on the part of the "photographer" Loren, tries to picture Mar as the "dominant" of the two. Take a look at how Mar shook the hand of Binay. Mar's big hands covered those of Binay's. Likewise, notice how tall Mar is in relation to Binay. What that picture tries to convey is that Mar looks more presidential than the 5'5 tall Binay.

And notice how Mar patted the vice president in the back as if to say that he will be safe in the event that he, Mar, takes the top plum. This photo expresses too many glaring differences.

If you ask me, this photo shows how 2016 will eventually turn out. Observers should take 2010 as a lesson in electoral politics---big political machines are no match to the underdog.

Binay won on the strength of his own grassroots machinery plus those of Erap's. Villar tried to pull the rug under Erap and transpose it in his own Nacionalista party. He failed.

Binay meanwhile, is a safe bet, safer than Loren and of Mar's who are perceived publicly as bets of the ilustrados. Being the underdog, it is expected that voters will go with Binay.

However, take note that Binay won via the slimmest of margins. Yes, he appears and is considered strong now. Yet, lessons in History should be taken into consideration by people who want Binay to win--that Binay's positive gains in the polls should not be allowed to slid down the drain. This happened to many people already---De Venecia and Villar. They were very strong in pre-election surveys yet lost in a very bad way come election time. Philippine Agenda has a very good take on this see link.

Good if Binay sustains his lead. Good if Binay maintains his advance against his present political rivals. Binay as president is the best choice, since he is expected to maintain the present policies of the Aquino administration with some modifications.

The bad thing now, politically, is no one among those who are being bruited about as Binay's rivals deserve the people's trust.

Grace Poe who is a far second, is not keen on taking this role this early. Her feat in 2010 is no fluke. Yet, let's admit it that those votes were meant to really be impressive since voters felt that they should give her their support to vindicate their idol, former actor and presidentiable, Fernando Poe Jr. Poe as president is something which will take a different outcome since Pinoy voters are traditionalists. It is easy to defeat Poe in propaganda.

Escudero's chances at the presidency is slim since his rivals already discovered a clink in his political armor. Yes, his relationship with Heart is something being talked about yet it will not be enough to propel him to victory. Fact is, it might even be a factor in his defeat.

That 13 million votes of Bongbong Marcos inspite of the existence of the Yellow Army and the strength and power of the anti-Marcos forces did not stop him from getting into the winning circle. Yes, those votes were far less than Poe's but it shows how strong the Marcos political brand still is. This also reflects a yearning need among members of the underbelly of Philippine society of the concept of "order" which represented the Marcos brand name.

There are talks about a "dark horse" emerging from the sidelines. Among the present crop of political personalities in our midst, who will be that "dark horse"? Some say, its Panfilo "Ping" Lacson. There are talks that Lacson will gun for the Liberal party presidential nomination, something which I believe is more of a suicide for the party rather than an assurance of victory.

It would take a gargantuan leap for anyone to erase those unsavory things which stuck to Lacson's political brand name. Yes, like Pnoy, Lacson was a senator. Yes, there is still a tight loyal base to support him should he jump into the bandwagon. However, Lacson has a klink in his armor, something which is very easy to expose and for the public to believe in.

Another dark horse is Miriam Defensor-Santiago who continues to do the campus rounds to entertain the young college students with her witticisms. But, for serious voters, that is about it. They are entertained by Santiago's speeches and antics, but will it be enough to consider her as a serious presidential bet? Some people say yes. Most would probably disagree. Santiago suffers from a Pichay disease---highly popular yet greatly detested, even, untrusted. As what veteran political analysts know, popularity is just secondary, even a tertiary consideration. Voters might remember your name but it does not necessarily follow that they will vote for you. I don't know how high or low Santiago's voter conversion is, but if Santiago is thinking of reprising her 1998 bid, that is far off. Would you vote for someone whom people think as some sort of a moon lover?

I agree with UP professor Clarita Carlos---the possibility of a dark horse getting the top plum is there. The obvious question is---who, then, is this dark horse?

A dark horse is someone who is popular yes, and is now involved in the political game. A dark horse who will just appear out of nowhere and declare himself as a strong bet for the presidency will surely learn a bitter lesson from the very start.

These people are the only ones left to be considered "dark horses"---Robredo widow, a young Congressman like Miro Quimbo, or religious leaders, sans Eddie Villanueva who already suffered humiliating defeats already only a thick skinned schizo would ever think of telling him to again jump into the fires of politics, or a Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao for president? Possible but highly unlikely. The Filipino People are still not as desperate as others think they are.

2014--a political year for the Philippines

2014 is also a political year for the Philippines--that is, for those who aspire the top Executive post in 2016. This means that we will all see these political personalities becoming more active and more engaged next year than this year's.

Those who aspire the presidency, one expert advise---less exposure is better. The more people talk about you, the more they will remember your weaknesses and inefficiencies, the more chance of you losing the competition.

A confidential study shows that most Filipinos want just to work hard and see less politics in the papers. Those who work hard will reap the benefits. Those who just use media outlets to prop themselves up to stellar status stands to lose rather than gain in the political department.

In Philippine politics, it is not popularity than urges people to vote for you come election time. A decade ago, this is the case. This explains why Gloria Arroyo became Nora Aunor come election time.

There is a thirst for new and fresh faces in politics. There is a silent hatred for traditional politicos or people who are young yet exhibit or show signs of being a trapo. Think of the young Maceda.

Consumer issues will top the headlines next year. Those who will champion lower prices of goods, of power and other utilities will surely win the hearts of many.

Epalism is one thing that most people hate.

One bold prediction for 2016---a new face will emerge as President. This person will emerge like how Obama did when he ran the first time.

Cast out the frontliners right now for the presidency.

Binay is a goner. This early, he along with his son and daughters are showing signs of snobbery, and of royalty, things which Filipinos hate. As they say---hindi pa man presidente, arogante na. That Makati incident and the slowly deteriorating state of Makati City are just two things why people will not vote for him come election time.

Same goes with Mar. Politically, the big horse that is the Liberal, is slowly decreasing its galloping speed and may not have the power nor the wherewithal to finish the race by 2016.

Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is casting his lot as a vice presidential wannabe, yet, his big mouth will surely lead him to destruction, since he is promising many people many things but delivering nothing or less than expected.

People are talking about Grace Poe as a "dark horse" yet, her initial performance as a Senator is a disappointment. This will affect her chances by 2016. It does not mean that your number one placement at the senatorial race in 2010 assures you of a higher post come 2016.

Senator Chiz Escudero is making his moves, using his strong connections with Pnoy, to gain more political points. The problem is, his wrangling with Heart's parents. That scene will haunt him in 2016. Escudero was'nt able to fully erase this scene from the minds of people, especially parents who comprise the bulk of the electorate.

How about Miriam Santiago's antics before young and future voters? Her school tours have impacted greatly on the minds of the young voters. Is she a presidentiable? Not if rational minds unite against her. I don't want to see Manila burning like Rome, with Miriam singing and playing the violin.

Many are talking about Ping Lacson, and how he is able to capture the public's imagination once more. Some say, Lacson is the best bet of the Americans, and when the Americans speak, Filipinos follow. As construction czar, Lacson is in the best position to capture the presidency come 2016. Some rumor mongers say the Americans will pour billions to help him in his job.

Well, Lacson's fate is brighter than others but it does not assure him of the job come 2016. It cuts both ways. If Lacson is not able to do his job as what he promised, then he's a goner. He is actually politically weak. His success depends on one thing---money. This early, Ping does not want to sign anything close to financial papers. How then will he be able to accomplish anything without using public funds?

Lacson faces a dilemma--re-construction means using public funds. He loses if corruption eats just one of his projects. One example--a road project. The Visayas needs more roads. One project tainted with charges of corruption will taint Lacson.

How about Senator Bongbong Marcos then? He is being pump primed for the presidency, with his mother as his endorser.

Well, 2016 stands a good chance of becoming like the sixties when his father, the late president Ferdinand Marcos assumed power. The conditions of the sixties are slowly re-appearing with elite families dominating both political and economic spheres of life.

The Marcos trademark remains spotless if you ask older voters. Young voters do not know what happened during Marcos dictatorial years. Those in the middle age range knows, yet this segment is fragmented.

Marcos has a strong constituency. Marcos has a very strong grassroots based electoral machine that if activated, would possibly give him the presidency. The problem really of Bongbong is the elite families whose interests will be affected once he assumes the presidency. To win, he will have to either cause the deaths of these families or enter into a compromise with them.

His father did these two things---enter into a compromise with some families and left others to die a rather slow economic death. He did not chose one above the other. The thing is, these families have long memories.

(expect a second part of this analysis..)