Manny Villar is no Teflon guy: Villar mass balloon has burst open

The latest Pulse Asia survey this month is very, very significant for two (2) reasons: one the survey employed or mimicked the conditions which are expected in an automated elections and two, the survey was conducted barely two and a half months away from the May 10, 2010 polls. And we all know in the politics business that surveys conducted during the periods of February AND March reflect a truer pulse of the public preference than those of April.

36% favors Noynoy as President

Thirty six percent (36%) of those surveyed said they prefer Liberal party presidential candidate Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino over all others, a one percentage point drop from his previous 37% rating.

What is very significant is the monumental drop in the ratings of Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar. From a statistical tie last month, Villar dropped to 29% after being in the spotlight for his role in the highly controversial and corrupt C-5 road project. As expected, a drop in Villar's ratings benefitted former president Joseph Estrada who improved to 18%. This belies earlier statements from the Nacionalista Party that their bet will further increase in rankings following the statistical tie standing last January.

That 6% drop in Villar's ratings went to Estrada. This shows two (2) things: first Villar does not have a support base which he can confidently call his own and second, his mass base will be diluted by the improving numbers of former president Joseph Estrada.

The Liberal party therefore, must change tack and re-direct their efforts at party strengthening and continuous party building instead of worrying on attacks made by the Nacionalista party. Attacks by the Nacionalista will definitely fall by the wayside.

Meaning, Noynoy and his gang should sit comfortably in their chairs and let former president Joseph Estrada improve his media image more. Estrada has to regain his old bailiwicks, which will actually benefit the Liberals more than the Nacionalistas.

Meaning, to seal a Noynoy victory, Estrada should stay in the race. If he balks or decides to withdraw, his entire constituency will shift to Villar.

A re-invigorated Estrada campaign machinery will further dilute Villar's numbers, and expose the weakness of the Nacionalista campaign machinery. Some analysts whom I talked with in some email exchanges say the next few weeks will reflect the true base support of Villar which lies in the vicinity of 17% to about 23%. That 29% mass base support still has some segments of the Estrada constituency and if Estrada continues his media campaign and increases his media awareness and his Jeep ni Erap and Tricycle in Erap campaign machinery kicks in this March 26, this is really bad news for Villar.

A drop in Noynoy's numbers improves Gilbert Teodoro's chances

Liberal Party has to be extremely vigilant though with the 2% surge of Gilbert Gibo Teodoro.

Teodoro's numbers are improving because he is eating up a very miniscule part of Noynoy's constituency and consolidating support bases of other minor or weaker candidates such as Madrigal's, Perlas' and JC delos Reyes'. The 1% drop of Noynoy and all other weaker candidates went to Gilbert Teodoro.

To avert such situation, these candidates should probably withdraw and throw support behind Noynoy Aquino. That way, Noynoy's constituency will not be diluted nor affected by the on-going campaigns being launched by Teodoro.

Apart from this though is the fact that the highly vaulted Lakas-Kampi machinery has not kicked in and this is a comfortable 15% which is not reflected at all in the surveys. By all estimation, Teodoro has about 22-23% preference ratings in the final stretch, and surely, this will not be enough to defeat Noynoy.

The C-5 road controversy and other accusations which point to previous graft practices by Villar will continue to affect his chances. The C-5 road, "Villarroyo" and his overspending are issues which the masses understand and has in fact, caused very serious concerns and doubts about Villar. No amount of PR-related actions will avert this and I seriously think that Villar should re-study his strategies and tactics and maybe come out with activities on how to stop these issues from spilling over the urban and rural communities.

Why is Aquino and Villar already tied in the presidential surveys?

Jay, a good friend, asked me why is that Senator Noynoy Aquino lost 8 percentage points in the latest presidential surveys and he is now statistically tied with Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar. THIS IS INSPITE OF THE FACT THAT 24% OF THE ELECTORATE FAVORS A CANDIDATE WHO IS NOT INVOLVED IN ANY GRAFT CASE AND HAS A VERY GOOD ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAM, TRAITS WHICH NOYNOY AQUINO DEFINITELY HAVE.

Jay, this is my explanation, based on my knowledge on sectoral and ground work and on political reality.

First, Noynoy is losing his traditional bailiwicks and hemorrhaging heavily in areas which were traditionally slanted in favor of the Liberal Party.

There are two (2) explanations behind this: he is losing the ground war and his communication/imaging teams are not helping support ground work.

Every one knows that the Manny Villar team already is mobilizing the best and the brightest grassroots organizers especially in the Luzon corridor. Villar is giving 45,000 pesos for regional coordinators, higher than any other candidate. These organizers have significant influence and numbers in these areas, especially in Northern, Central and Southern Luzon. Look at the latest Pulse Asia survey Jay and you'll find that Noynoy lost in these areas--SIGNIFICANTLY.

Second, Villar's communication teams are COMPLIMENTING ground work, by giving campaign materials and even penetrating barangays and urban poor communities with Manny Villar posters, streamers and leaflets. 

Every one knows that the Liberals are losing their generals and lieutenants and these people are crossing political lines and now working for Villar.

The second major reason is that Noynoy already LOST THE INITIATIVE and his EMOTIONAL CONNECTION with his traditional bailiwicks and those of the middle forces have been whittled especially with his latest television ad.

Manny Villar's TVC is infectious while Noynoy Aquino's latest TVC is funny and stupid, to say the least. It does not connect with the 24-44 age group. 

Noynoy Aquino's TVC shows him rapping the problems of the country away. How stupid! My age group hates rappers. 

This shows that marketing experts are doing a very stupid and damaging work for Noynoy. They are helping Villar, and not Noynoy Aquino. 

Imagine, you're in the lead and you want to IMMITATE THE SECOND LEAD BY SHOWING A TVC WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT TRAILING YOU? STUPID!!

Fact is, in branding, when you're leading, you do not fear. Only those who trail want to imitate the leader. The leader must be extremely confident of his position since that shows that you probably are doing something correct in the first place.

Hey Kris, please LEAVE POLITICS and just settle in your showbiz work. You are not cut out for this. POLITICAL ADS ARE DIFFERENT FROM PRODUCT ADS. 

Lastly, people are slowly realizing that is better to elect a new leader with a very concrete platform than elect someone who just wants to regain an old glory. 

When people of my age group saw Noynoy with the Makati Business Club members in Cebu, it evoked memories of Kamaganak Incorporated and Cory's cronies.

Those images are bringing back memories of corruption during Cory's time. As what I suggested a few entries ago, Noynoy should DISENGAGE HIMSELF from his mother's cabinet members and those of the Hyatt 10 and instead, SHOW NEW FACES.

People want NEW FACES IN GOVERNMENT. IT IS BEST THAT NOYNOY CONSIDERS PRESENTING ATTY. ALEX LACSON or other POLITICAL NEOPHYTES IN THE LIBERAL SLATE more than those traditional political personalities running under the party. 

If the strategic thinkers within Noynoy's group refuses to acknowledge this reality and instead, remain stubborn and stupid, they will eventually lose this war and blame themselves for losing the initiative.