Real game changers in May 10 elections

When UP public administration Professor Prospero de Vera predicted a Villar win largely due to "religious block voting", he has clearly shown his political naivete, worst, his fractured political analysis. De Vera's analysis is full of errors. For one, religious block voting has not clearly been established as a major political game changer and two, Philippine politics is entirely unpredictable that a prediction coming from a public administration professor and an issues adviser of a presidentiable is at best, unreliable. De Vera's analysis is more of a propaganda material to "save face" AND put a brave front on behalf of his boss, Manny Villar. Why so?

The real "game changers" in Philippine politics are these:

1. First, Filipino voters traditionally vote along ethnicity lines rather than religious beliefs. The Filipino electorate is divided into ethno-linguistic groups. Filipinos are thinking clearly. There is a clear divide between "religious duties" and "political duties".

Voting blocks in Philippine politics are the following: Ilokano, Tagalog, Bicolano, Cebuano, Ilonggo, Tausug, Maguindanaoan and Suluanon votes. There is no such thing as Bulakeno, Palawaeno, or even Pangalatok vote.

2. Political influence of local executives. This is one of the real game changers. Voters are influenced more by strong political leaders rather than strong religious leaders.

3. There is no such thing as Youth and Labor votes. There is, however, a gender vote. The Youth vote is fractured. It does not necessarily follow that if youth voters vote for a certain candidate, that is a sure win. Yes, the ranks of the youth vote (technically voters from 18 years old to 35 years old are considered youth voters) comprise 75% of the electorate. However, traditionally, this huge block is divided into age groups with differing beliefs and sub-cultural voting patterns. Example, the 18-20 years old age group votes differently than the 21-25 year olds, the 26-30 years old, the 31-35 age groups. The "Youth Vote" is divided along generational lines, hence, cannot be "unified" to support one candidate.

This goes with the "labor vote" because of differing ideological lines.

There is, however, a gender vote. Males vote for male candidates more than they vote for female candidates. Sixty percent of female voters vote for local female candidates than male candidates. However, in nationally elective posts, both male and female voters prefer male candidates more than female candidates. That explains why there are more male legislators than female legislators.

4. There is a regional provincial vote. Voters from the rural areas vote into office candidates perceived as "provincianos" rather than those born in Manila. Visayans prefer candidates from the Visayas while Mindanaoans vote for Mindanaoan candidates. This is quite evident in the senatorial race.

I now understand why Villar is losing the political game---he has an issues adviser who does not know what he is talking about. De Vera should provide his boss with the following analysis, per region, per linguistic block and per gender and age grouping.

Let's analyze based on reports:

1. The Ilocano vote is at best, going to Villar. Villar is expected to clinch the number one spot in the Ilocano provinces due to the endorsement of the very influential Ilocano vote of the Singsons. The Marcoses are still a force to contend with in the Ilocano provinces. Teodoro is second and Aquino, in third place. Pangasinan is one province which is going not entirely with Villar. Pangalatoks will probably go to Estrada, Aquino, Villar and Teodoro.

2. Central Luzon will largely go to Aquino. Nueva Ecija is going for Aquino, similar with Tarlac. Bulacan will largely go to Aquino, Estrada second and Villar third. Zambales and Bataan are going clearly to Villar, Teodoro and Aquino.

3. NCR is critical and being traditionally oppositionist, Aquino will have a big chunk of the votes here, followed by Estrada, Villar and Teodoro. I will not be surprised if Aquino and Estrada will fight tooth and nail for every square inch of Metro Manila.

Quezon city will largely go to Aquino, Villar and Estrada. Camanava is largely Aquino territory, followed by Estrada and Villar. Southern Metro Manila (Paranaque, Pasay,Taguig, Muntinlupa and Las Pinas) will be divided between Aquino and Villar. Pasay is gunning for an Estrada win although Aquino is registering very strong in certain communities.

Eastern Metro Manila is also going for Aquino while central Metro Manila is, again, a toss up between Aquino and Estrada.

4. With the death of former Batangas governor Sanchez, the fight is now between Aquino and Estrada whose influence in the province is still very strong. Certain areas of Batangas will vote for Villar and Teodoro but will not be enough to eclipse an Aquino win.

5. Cavite is clearly Aquino, an irony since most low cost housing projects of Villar are located in the province. There are still some areas which will go to Estrada and Villar, respectively.

6. Laguna is "open territory". Certain areas are clearly going for the Liberals, some to Teodoro, Estrada and Villar. Those near Rizal will be going for Estrada, Districts 1 to Aquino and others to Teodoro and Villar.

7. The Rizal provinces (Tanay, Taytay, Cainta, etc.) are also divided, yet Estrada remains very influential in most areas.

8. Bicolano vote will go largely to Aquino, while the crumbs will be shared equally by Villar, Estrada and Teodoro.

9. Visayan vote is also fractured. Aquino is very strong in Regions 6 but entirely weak in Region 7, which counts Cebu. Cebu has the biggest number of voters and most voters exhibit republican tendencies. What is significant, Cebuanos are influenced by their local government executives. Unlike voters in Metro Manila, voters in Metro Cebu are strongly influenced by their officials.

Villar has a very strong chance of clinching majority of the votes in Cebu, followed by Teodoro, Aquino and Estrada. However, if Teodoro wins Cebuano votes, that will actually benefit Aquino because even if Teodoro wins in Region 7, it will not be enough to defeat him. It is better that Cebuano votes remain divided between Villar and Teodoro.

10. Mindanao is therefore, a region where crucial voter support is needed. Whoever has a huge campaign kitty will win Mindanaoan support. It will be a toss up between Villar and Estrada in this area.

The Myth of the Religious vote as "game changers"

Self-proclaimed political analyst Prof. Prospero de Vera is not counting out his boss, Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar. Despite a clear slide in various surveys, the UP public administration professor and Villar’s issues adviser says that Villar has two (2) things going for him: one, the expected public pronouncement of support of the Iglesia ni Kristo (INK) and the El Shaddai and two, the 6-9% of “undecided” voters. De Vera describes these two as “game changers”.


Let’s analyze if what Prof. de Vera told Ted Failon and respected journalist Tina Monsod-Palma is a correct analysis of the real situation in Philippine politics. Will support from the INC and the El Shaddai change the political fortunes of beleaguered Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar?


Surveys place Villar at second place, alongside former president Joseph Estrada. Analyzing Villar’s survey rankings from the start of the campaign period, we arrive at a very safe estimate of about 24 to 27% electorate support for Villar, still bigger than Erap’s 18-20%. Translate that into actual numbers, Villar has about 10.08 million “sure votes” come May 10, 2010 elections. This 10 million vote estimate comes from an 80% voter turnout or about 40 million votes.


Villar’s closest rival, Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino, enjoys 35% to 40% “voter preference support”. Translate that into actual figures, this comprises about 16 million votes, 6 million or so votes bigger than Villar’s.


Now, if De Vera is to be believed, command votes from the INC and the El Shaddai will eventually whittle this 6 million vote difference down to a few thousand or even probably eclipse that of Aquino’s. De Vera says the INC’s 3-10 million membership coupled with that of the El Shaddai’s purported 8 million members will surely clinch Villar the presidency.


First, De Vera’s analysis is faulty simply because he did not take into account that those interviewed by survey companies include members of these two churches. Second, as every researcher knows, command votes will just account between 5-6% difference between Aquino and Villar ; and lastly, even if Villar gets the support of the INC and the El Shaddai, this will surely not be enough given that both groups’ actual membership does not tally with recent studies.


The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) places the estimated number of INC members at 2.3% of the total Philippine population. This estimate includes minors and it does not say how many actual registered voters among the INC ranks are. It is the single biggest Christian block in the country, about .3% bigger than the Aglipayan church. Compared with the Muslim minority which the CIA places at 5% of the total population, the Iglesia Ni Kristo really commands 2.116 million members only compared with about 4.55 million Muslim votes. The Apologetics website however, estimated INC membership between 3 to 10 million members worldwide, bigger than the Jehovah’s Witnesses.


Christian evangelicals comprise 2.8% of the population but they don’t command political influence largely due to its fractured nature. Attempts at unifying these disparate evangelical groups have fallen by the wayside due to the differing views of their leaders.


Clearly, this country is still dominated largely by Roman Catholics which comprise 80.9% of the population or about 73.61 million Filipinos. It is thru this huge block that the El Shaddai claims to have influence, although, the claims of El Shaddai leader Bro. Mike Velarde that his group commands about 8 million religious adherents are simply untrue.


The Iglesia Ni Kristo (INC) is known for its doctrinal belief on “block voting”. According to church doctrines, a member of their church is expected to abide by the decision of the majority. It says that every believer should be one with the church, and that includes political decisions. Nothing wrong with this, I believe, it is doctrinally sound.


This applies also in the case of the El Shaddai, a Catholic group which is categorized as “which has exercised this so-called “religious block voting” since their leader, Bro. Mike Velarde was catapulted to national prominence. Velarde has since positioned himself as a “kingmaker” in Philippine politics.


Now, will public support from both religious groups be enough to clinch the presidency for Villar?


Malou Mangahas wrote a PCIJ article published in 2002 which quoted my Political Science professor Felipe Miranda as saying that the INC block vote is “overstated”. Miranda says that the INC command vote depends largely on the strength of the decision of the head of the INC. Its decisions, however, are sometimes different from existing political reality.


In 1992, the Iglesia Ni Kristo leadership supported the presidential candidacy of Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco. Cojuangco lost that election. Fidel V. Ramos won that elections largely by the support of Cory’s Catholic legions and denominational Christian groups. In 2004, the INC supported Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo which nearly lost the elections to opposition leader Fernando Poe Jr. Prior to the elections, Arroyo’s “lead” over Poe was just 4.5 percentage points. The INC endorsement which analysts say translate to a 4-6 million difference could have given Arroyo a landslide win. It did not. Arroyo won over Poe with just a 1 million vote difference. And this largely was due to the Hello Garci operations by Arroyo’s henchmen, not religious command votes.


Officially, the INC claims to have about 5-8 million members throughout the country and overseas. It is the most trusted religious organization in the Philippines and the only Philippine-based religious group to have planted its branches firmly in 180 countries. While its members largely support the religious decisions of its leadership, some members have taken a contrary political stance. In numerous occasions, some of its members went and voted against several candidates whom the Church endorsed.


Given the differing figures, INC block voting at best, is estimated to give its presidential preference about 2 million votes more or less, while the El Shaddai’s actual political influence, at best, is a million or 1.16 million or even less. This stems from the votes cast for Buhay, the partylist organization of El Shaddai last 2007 partylist elections.  

More or less, both groups are good only for 3 to 4 million “command votes”, two million votes less than the 6 million votes difference between Villar and Aquino.

Now, if De Vera is still counting on the ranks of the undecided, actual numbers show that the 6-9% translates to 3 to 3.6 million votes only. Obviously, Villar will simply not get the entire votes of the undecided. More than half of these votes will probably not vote any presidential candidate and only about half of this number will vote for candidates other than Villar. Some will go to Aquino, others to Gordon, Teodoro and even Estrada.

Alarming


What is alarming is the one given by Prof. De Vera which is the phenomenon of “disfranchisement”. In his interview with Failon and Monsod-Palma, De Vera is banking on the huge number of disfranchised voters. He says that more voters disfranchised, the more likely and bitterly the fight between Aquino and Villar will become. I disagree.

In a scenario like this, disfranchisement will result to a 3 and even a 4-cornered fight. I agree that massive disfranchisement of voters will damage Aquino’s lead and will probably benefit Villar, Estrada and Teodoro. Let’s analyze.


Analysts say 80% of registered Filipino voters will eventually and actually cast their votes come May 10. In a disfranchisement scenario, this 80% or about 40 million, will go down to about 76% or 4 percentage lower. Translated—that’s about 38 million votes.


Aquino’s 6 million vote lead will just be between 4-5 million votes, closer than Villar’s, Estrada’s and Teodoro’s. Disfranchisement will affect the number of Aquino voters more than Villar’s, Estrada’s and Teodoro’s since it is presumed that majority of the votes will go to Aquino’s. The more disfranchisement, the closer the voter difference between Aquino and his rivals. However, De Vera is wrong to presume that only Villar and Aquino will slug it out. It will be a slug fest among Aquino, Villar, Estrada and even Teodoro.


This is likely to happen given the major glitches in the automation plan, the possible outbreak of politically-related violence and the purported plan of several political groups to effect massive disfranchisement in thousands of precincts nationwide.


I observed that the number of voters will actually be even more than 40 million since more Filipinos will go out and vote for their preferred candidates.

Why vote for Noynoy Aquino?

I met Noynoy Aquino for the first time last November 2008, in one of Mar Roxas' events. It was in Balai ni Mar. He came with only one bodyguard and appeared like a professor to me, not a distinguished senator.

What endeared him to me was his humility. He never bragged about his wealth, nor his pedigree nor his superiority to me. I am, but, a humble and poor man. He asked me for a light and I gave it to him and that started a conversation. Though I like to tell you what we talked about, I figured that it will not be fair to him.

Anyway, I was one of those who was shocked when he decided to run for president. When I saw him, I did not imagine that he's "presidential material". There was no glow around him, nothing extraordinary. Unlike, say, Erap and FVR and Cory--they have this "air" around them that suggests that they are not your usual or ordinary people. As they say, those who became or will become presidents usually has this "glow". I never saw that with Noynoy.

What I noticed was his sincerity and humility, traits that every single Aquino possesses. I met his mother and his sister in so many occasions and was struck me was their humility. I was not fortunate enough to meet his father, Ninoy, but shed a bucketful of tears when the dictator's henchmen shot him at the airport tarmac.

I was also one of those who went to Club Filipino and heard him tell the world that he was running for the presidency. I told some of my friends over at Mar's camp that probably, Mar's decision to back out was a wrong move, because, I think that Mar deserved to be the Liberal's standard bearer because he wants to be president while Noynoy was not that convincing, at first.

Then it hit me--what if Noynoy's decision to run was what God really intended? I reminded myself of the Biblical story of David, of how a poor and unknown shepherd became God's anointed one. David never aspired to become King but God anointed him. He never intended to become a warrior of God, but the Almighty put the fear of God in his heart and he vanquished God's enemies through the might of his slingshot.

What prompted Noynoy to seek the highest post of the land? Is it because he want nothing more than glory? No, probably not. Is it because he wanted to save his family's ailing businesses? Obviously not. The Aquino's wealth will probably last a lifetime, even beyond Baby James' life time.

Is Noynoy seeking vainglory? No. And then it hit me again.

When this country was reeling from the distresses caused by a strongman's vanity, one lowly citizen stood up and said " Tama na, Sobra na" and it was his mother, Cory.

When people were being killed left and right, his father, Noynoy, stood up and said " Enough!".

Now, we are in the same depressing situation and its now the son's turn.

How many Aquinos do we need for us to change the lot of this country? One, two, or three? How much more sacrifice will this family do to us before we even realize that it is simply not just them who'll do the talking and walking--more importantly, it must be US.

God gives glory to those who seek not its beauty. And this, probably, is why we now see the only son of Ninoy and Cory giving his entire life, his entire future, so that others may be free.

Yet, I ask--how many more Noynoys do we need for us to finally liberate ourselves from the shackles of ignorance and poverty? Is it right for us to demand more from this family who has been giving us their entire selves for the last four decades?

This probably explains why many Filipinos prefer Noynoy than Villar. Villar desired the presidency, Noynoy does not. Villar prepared for years for this campaign for the top post, Noynoy did not.

And like what God and History always tell us---those whose fate are not congruent with God's, the Almighty will frustrate them.

By the way, the next survey will shock us---former president Joseph Estrada has overtaken Villar and is now statistically tied with Noynoy. What a shocker indeed!

Oplan C.U.R.E.

Mrs. Arroyo has called for an emergency security meeting with her cabinet to discuss the elections. Executive secretary Leandro Mendoza said, the administration is fully committed to ensuring the highest preparations for a clean elections. However, some quarters are not convinced. 

A source, who refused to be named, confirmed that Defense secretary Norberto Gonzales is currently going the rounds, meeting with battalion commanders of the AFP shortly after PMA Class 1977 meeting with Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino. The meeting, says a source, was nothing official nor even suspicious. It was not even a "gripe session." (Curiously, PMA Class 1977 was purportedly the class behind Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar. Did they move out of NP and into the loving arms of the LP?)

Meanwhile, another source says that the administration is planning the establishment of a junta before May 30, the day when Congress supposedly opens its session. This junta, says the source is to be a countermeasure against a possible "people power" to be instigated by certain quarters close to Liberal party bet Noynoy Aquino. 

The question is---will PMA class 1978 participate in this junta even after one of them assured me that they are all constitutionalists and will just abide with the duly-constituted civilian authority whoever that may be?

Will PMA Class 1978 stay in the sidelines and just let these things " move as naturally and as normally as possible" or will they be the actors in this political drama?

That's probably why former president Fidel Valdes Ramos and his gang are slowly appearing again before the media, propping themselves up again and just recently, held a dinner to get international support for their plan.

For one, if a group OTHER THAN the group of Norberto Gonzales hatch and execute a coup, that will surely be welcome development for the people. 

A junta by this administration will be strongly opposed by the People. All sectors will unite and will fight this junta, including this writer. 

The Undecided is growing while Voters suffer from "Villar fatigue"

Joseph Goebbels, Hitler's propagandist, once said that if you repeat a lie long enough, it becomes truth.

IN the case of Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar, the more he hammers his pro-poor message, the more people disbelieve him. Advertising, in this case, is really not doing him any good.

As what this blog wrote a few weeks ago, Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar's survey ratings continue to plummet, but surprisingly, the previous observation that his fall would benefit Estrada seemed erroneous.

Yet, it is not about Villar's steady fall in the ratings game that is so alarming---it is the growing number of voters who are shifting, from having a choice to "undecided".

Villar feel four percentage points more, from 29% to just 25% in the latest March Pulse Asia survey. Analysts (and that includes this writer) presumed that the decrease in the ratings of Villar will benefit Estrada, but this survey did not reflect such. Instead of Estrada, the voters actually went to other candidates and most, if not, all voters who dropped Villar as their candidate went to Gordon and went from having a choice to "undecided".

From a mere 6%, the undecided now stands at 9%--similar to the figure which SWS published a few weeks back. This "Undecided" is a crucial one for the three leading presidential candidates because if one of them gets a big chunk of this "sector" of the electorate, then, he levels the playing field.

Presidential frontrunner Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino gained one percentage point higher, this time at 37%. Estrada's numbers did not change---it remained at 18%, which probably shows that the Estrada "magic" has already waned or "plateau-ed". This means that, even if Estrada's numbers suddenly gain, it will not be enough to challenge Aquino's whose numbers are slowly improving.

This survey is very important for three (3) things:

1. This contradicts earlier presumptions that the more a candidate exposes himself on media, especially television, the more he gains supporters. Villar's ads are everywhere, even in cyberspace, yet the ads were not able to arrest his slide. This is expected since advertising just tells people what's the product is but does not have the ability to further explain other features of the product, something curable by Public Relations.

I think that the public is suffering from "Villar fatigue"--people are being overwhelmed by messages about him that instead of him getting positive feedback, he is now getting negative ones. Villar probably forgot that overdoing things is simply bad. Swamping us with ads appeals to kids--not to voters. Repetition of the same message tires the mind and a mind swamped with information will definitely reject the message.

2. Aquino should not rejoice in this latest survey findings because he is not benefitting from Villar's steady slide--his opponents are. Yes, he got one percentage point higher but this does not translate into a very comfortable position for him, no. People who reject Villar are shifting not to Aquino but to other candidates and worst, going to undecided. If the "undecided" grows bigger, this will be the number which election fraudsters will use to justify a fraudulent elections.

For example, if the undecided balloons to say 12 to 15%, this figure can be used by the camps of, say Estrada to justify a win (15% plus 18% is 33%--near Aquino's 37%; Teodoro's number is at 7% plus, say 12% becomes 19%--a figure which may force a 3-way fight) or even that of the administration. Or, even Villar himself.

Remember that the biggest gainer so far in any presidential race was Estrada whose 35% vote in 1998 remains formidable. Statistically, the best that Aquino will be able to get is around 30 to 32% which is still not quite a majority vote if you ask me.

In a 3-way fight, if all bets are off, then you have Aquino getting near 30%, Villar getting near 30% and Estrada getting probably also near 30%--meaning a statistical tie. Or, the scenario may also be Aquino just squeezing a few percentage points higher than Villar and Teodoro getting the undecided votes to himself, which will propel him eventually to an even status with both Villar and Aquino.

Meaning, Pulse Asia's analyst Ana Marie Tacorda is correct afterall--the presidential race is still "anybody's game". Aquino is still not yet in the safe zone.

3. If the undecided is growing, this indicates that people are still looking for candidates to vote as president. This is bad news for both Aquino and Villar because it allows their other political opponents to gain more of the territories they are losing. This is clearly good news for Teodoro, since if this news about Teodoro losing the Arroyos' support gain traction and leads to a "perception" that Teodoro is slowly turning himself loose from the administration, then it may improve his ratings for the next survey (in the latest Pulse Asia, this alleged news about Teodoro losing Arroyo support has not been published yet).

The best thing is for Aquino to continue campaigning in the provinces, continue strengthening his support from the ABC class, continue getting more support from the E-class and fortify his political alliances in the Luzon and Mindanao regions. Aquino needs to reach out to the undecided to deter his political opponents from catching up.

For Villar, all I can say is simply desist from the public eye, decrease your ads and try to allow your senatoriables to gain more traction. Fortify your hold of the E-class and regain what you lost from the ABC class. You have three more weeks to do it.

For Teodoro--continue what you are doing because you might probably be surprised of the result. You are gaining support from the ABC class, but you are not connecting with the D-E.

IN the case of Estrada, the former president should improve his relationship with the ABC class and regain those territories he lost to Villar in the D class. If he improves his communication strategy and connects more to the ABC class, that will surely affect Villar and help him level the field in a 2-way fight with Aquino.

Villar loses ground battle to Erap

The latest SWS survey just came out. Noynoy Aquino of the Liberal Party is still ahead of Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar despite being outclassed in the ads and air war. Aquino's lead is widening, while Villar's numbers are on the downside, probably affected by the latest campaigns by former president Joseph Estrada who continues to garner percentage points. Estrada is now third, narrowing the gap between him and Villar's. Villar's ranking fell by six points while Estrada gained four percentage points, an indication that Villar is the one losing territories with the renewed Estrada campaign.

Like what I wrote here previously, Estrada's campaign is hurting and will hurt Villar's in the coming weeks. Estrada is regaining his lost territories which were "hijacked" by the Nacionalista. Now, will it help that Villar is gaining allies from the administration party? Will this improve his standing notwithstanding? Let's just see in the next survey because these April surveys will show if really local executive support impacts on the way people perceive national candidates.

And it seems that the trend is following a very distinct pattern:

While Estrada regains his old territories hijacked by the Nacionalista, Villar loses considerable areas of support. However, while some areas covered by Estrada went back to him, most areas shift to Noynoy. Hence, the more Estrada campaigns, the more Noynoy benefits and Villar suffers. If this trend continues, Villar will be at the losing end of the game. In the end game however, it will be a very close fight among Noynoy Aquino, Villar and Estrada. The likelihood of a candidate gaining just 5-7% lead over his closest rival exists.

The ABC class is a revelation---Villar lost 16 percentage points which Aquino actually benefitted by gaining 15%. This means that the ABC class has now shifted their loyalties. It is in this class where support for Villar is weakening.

And what is highly significant is the fact that Estrada is gaining NEW territories, a fact which must not escape notice from the Liberal party. Aquino's base of support seemed to be at a standstill--between 35% to 40%--good, but not entirely. It just shows that Aquino's support base is not eating up those of Villar's and even of Estrada's.

There is about 5-6 million people who remains undecided. Critical for Aquino, Villar and Estrada to gain a slice of this huge number. Whoever exploits this will gain a slight advantage in the end. Villar lost considerable support in the "D" Class, about six percentage points, which benefitted Estrada who gained four and Richard Gordon who got two percentage points. In the "E" class, Villar lost four percentage points, while Aquino and Eddie Villanueva got two percentage points each, an indication that the masses are shifting their loyalties.

Manny Villar is no Teflon guy: Villar mass balloon has burst open

The latest Pulse Asia survey this month is very, very significant for two (2) reasons: one the survey employed or mimicked the conditions which are expected in an automated elections and two, the survey was conducted barely two and a half months away from the May 10, 2010 polls. And we all know in the politics business that surveys conducted during the periods of February AND March reflect a truer pulse of the public preference than those of April.

36% favors Noynoy as President

Thirty six percent (36%) of those surveyed said they prefer Liberal party presidential candidate Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino over all others, a one percentage point drop from his previous 37% rating.

What is very significant is the monumental drop in the ratings of Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar. From a statistical tie last month, Villar dropped to 29% after being in the spotlight for his role in the highly controversial and corrupt C-5 road project. As expected, a drop in Villar's ratings benefitted former president Joseph Estrada who improved to 18%. This belies earlier statements from the Nacionalista Party that their bet will further increase in rankings following the statistical tie standing last January.

That 6% drop in Villar's ratings went to Estrada. This shows two (2) things: first Villar does not have a support base which he can confidently call his own and second, his mass base will be diluted by the improving numbers of former president Joseph Estrada.

The Liberal party therefore, must change tack and re-direct their efforts at party strengthening and continuous party building instead of worrying on attacks made by the Nacionalista party. Attacks by the Nacionalista will definitely fall by the wayside.

Meaning, Noynoy and his gang should sit comfortably in their chairs and let former president Joseph Estrada improve his media image more. Estrada has to regain his old bailiwicks, which will actually benefit the Liberals more than the Nacionalistas.

Meaning, to seal a Noynoy victory, Estrada should stay in the race. If he balks or decides to withdraw, his entire constituency will shift to Villar.

A re-invigorated Estrada campaign machinery will further dilute Villar's numbers, and expose the weakness of the Nacionalista campaign machinery. Some analysts whom I talked with in some email exchanges say the next few weeks will reflect the true base support of Villar which lies in the vicinity of 17% to about 23%. That 29% mass base support still has some segments of the Estrada constituency and if Estrada continues his media campaign and increases his media awareness and his Jeep ni Erap and Tricycle in Erap campaign machinery kicks in this March 26, this is really bad news for Villar.

A drop in Noynoy's numbers improves Gilbert Teodoro's chances

Liberal Party has to be extremely vigilant though with the 2% surge of Gilbert Gibo Teodoro.

Teodoro's numbers are improving because he is eating up a very miniscule part of Noynoy's constituency and consolidating support bases of other minor or weaker candidates such as Madrigal's, Perlas' and JC delos Reyes'. The 1% drop of Noynoy and all other weaker candidates went to Gilbert Teodoro.

To avert such situation, these candidates should probably withdraw and throw support behind Noynoy Aquino. That way, Noynoy's constituency will not be diluted nor affected by the on-going campaigns being launched by Teodoro.

Apart from this though is the fact that the highly vaulted Lakas-Kampi machinery has not kicked in and this is a comfortable 15% which is not reflected at all in the surveys. By all estimation, Teodoro has about 22-23% preference ratings in the final stretch, and surely, this will not be enough to defeat Noynoy.

The C-5 road controversy and other accusations which point to previous graft practices by Villar will continue to affect his chances. The C-5 road, "Villarroyo" and his overspending are issues which the masses understand and has in fact, caused very serious concerns and doubts about Villar. No amount of PR-related actions will avert this and I seriously think that Villar should re-study his strategies and tactics and maybe come out with activities on how to stop these issues from spilling over the urban and rural communities.

Noynoy Aquino must do the rounds more than Villar

John Nery's opinion column today is worth reading, especially by those working for the poll victory of Senator Noynoy Aquino. The recent surveys should be a cause of alarm since Aquino's distrust rating has suddenly plummeted from 10 to 12, the same distrust rating of his closest rival, Manny Villar. Though most of his observations are valid, Nery's suggestion is, to my opinion, wrong.

The only way for Noynoy to gain more traction and lessen his distrust rating is simply work to expand his horizontal sectoral or grassroots organization. There is no other way. He cannot fight Villar in the infomercial game since it entails huge sums of money. He can, however, increase his sorties, even make it triple, which is less expensive than putting it in 350,000 peso TV spots.

Being a non-traditional candidate, Noynoy must do a lot of non-traditional methods to gain more conversion of votes. His problem is not awareness. Noynoy's dilemma is how to increase his conversion. If you look at the surveys, Noynoy is effective in reaching out to people. He just needs more areas to cover and more places to go to and share his platform with the people.

And since it is but a few months prior to May 10, Noynoy must cover more ground than his closest rival. Instead of concentrating on vote-rich provinces, Noynoy must go to those areas with smaller constituencies because fraud usually occurs or happens in those places. Meaning, he must not leave any stone unturned.

This month is most critical in any candidate's life simply because this is when people make decisions. Most voters have already decided whom to vote for and many would probably keep those decisions closer to their sleeves. The last few surveys would dictate whether we will have a minority president for this year OR someone with a simple majority. Sectoral endorsements are very important in this phase of the campaign and those who already secured them enjoy a very comfortable margin leading to the polls.

Noynoy Aquino and Joey de Venecia III supporters being harassed in Mandaluyong

The Commission on Elections should clarify and make certain common poster areas in cities, especially in Mandaluyong. And Comelec officials should ensure the safety of political opponents of the Abalos' and Gonzales' families. I personally witnessed how the dominant political hegemon in Mandaluyong is denying their political opponents, both national and local, access to these common poster areas.

Last night, while doing my midnight rounds in urban poor communities, I and my group of grassroots organizers were harassed by member of the barangays and the Mayors Action Center (MAC) of Mandaluyong mayor Benhur Abalos. When I was still a journalist, Benhur was a good friend. I even supped dinner with him, when he was still being groomed by his father as a successor to him. Now, I myself, fell victim to the rapaciousness and the almost dictatorial-like behavior of his men.

Unfortunate since I know Benhur to be a good man. And he, definitely, will not tolerate these kinds of behavior.

It seemed though that politics have indeed changed the man.

I learned from barangay officials in Mandaluyong that the Abaloses' gave explicit instructions to deny postering of known political enemies of the family in the city. The COMELEC designated common poster areas in all other cities. I observed, however, that in Mandaluyong, there were no designated common poster areas. If there were, then, these are BANNED from being used by political opponents of the two dominant political clans in the city---the Abaloses and the Gonzaleses.

Fact is, the long stretch of Martinez avenue is banned from Noynoy Aquino and JDV3 posters. JDV3 Movement supporters were warned not to place JDV3 posters in these areas, even in public markets and residences because Joey de Venecia III, according to some barangay officials, is a known political enemy of former mayor Benjamin Abalos sr.

When a Noynoy supporter reportedly posted a tarp of the Liberal party bet infront of his house, which happened to be along Martinez avenue, people wearing vests and with firearms reportedly cased the house and took some photos. After a few days, the house was ordered torn down for allegedly being an "obstruction."

Urban poor residences along the avenue are being constantly warned of dire consequences should they disobey the wishes of the Abaloses. Fact is, suspicions arose that the fire which ate up most of Welfareville was a "warning" to those who were planning to oppose the Ampatuan-like political clans in Mandaluyong. Previous to the big fire, peoples of Welfareville were planning to oppose the Abaloses and were, in fact, supportive of the Domingos who are traditional political opponents of the Abaloses.

Similar instances were also noted when some residents of Parola installed tarps of Noynoy Aquino and plastic posters of Joey de Venecia III. These posters were placed in areas legally allowed by the Comelec. However, some barangay officials reportedly visited these residents and asked them to tore down these posters otherwise " there'll be consequences."

Urban poor supporters of Noynoy Aquino and Joey de Venecia III were reportedly being harassed constantly by barangay officials in Mandaluyong. Supporters of the Domingos and the De Guzmans who are planning to contest the mayoral posts being held by Benhur Abalos are also being asked not to take part in the polls for pain of "harassment or death."

The Comelec and the military should put Mandaluyong in their hotspot list. My colleagues in the Media and civil society should not look far--here in the heart of Metro Manila lives a very dangerous political clan out to terrorize and deprive the people their voices and subvert their wills.

They have been doing this for the past twenty years and the peoples of Mandaluyong are sick and tired of them. Civil society should struggle against this political clan and people must militate against the Abaloses.

What is most comforting is this---one of the Noynoy and JDV3 supporter told me that no amount of coercive or terroristic tactics will ever deny them their right and their will to vote for New Politics in their city.

Joey de Venecia III represents New Politics, as well as Noynoy. The People's will will be followed. And Justice will reign in Mandaluyong if the people unite and civil society help them.

Let the New Patriots of the New Generation train their guns, err, sight on the Abaloses.

Where is Truth in Advertising in political ads?

Some of the things people are talking about in slums which I visited on TV ads and slogans by politicians

On Noynoy Aquino's " Hindi Ako Magnanakaw" promise:

" Hindi nga siya magnanakaw pero pano ang mga Kamaganak Incorporated? Hindi rin ba sila magnanakaw?"

On Manny Villar's "Naging Mahirap" ad:

" Hindi na siya mahirap pero sa bilyong bilyong pisong ginagasta niya sa kampanya, siguradong pag presidente na siya, TAYO na ang maghihirap."

On Gibo Teodoro's Galing at Talino ad especially that one where he is a pilot:

" Ngayon pa lang, gusto na nyang mag-travel kung saan-saan. At san yung galing? Yung galing na lumikha ng isang warlord sa Maguindanao? At yung talinong hayaang magnakaw ang mga kapanalig niya sa gobyerno?"

On Dick Gordon's Transformer ad:

" Buladas lang. Galing magsalita para itago ang nakaw sa bayan."

On Joseph Erap Estrada's ad:

" Sabi nya tahimik daw sa Mindanao nung panahon nya. Anong tahimik? Dalawang giyera ang inilunsad niya nung panahon nya. Saan ang tahimik dun? Gusto ni Erap, gerahin ang mga Bangsamoro at alagaan lang ang mga tradisyunal na Muslim leaders sa Mindanao."

:-). Truth in advertising should apply to political ads.

Why is Aquino and Villar already tied in the presidential surveys?

Jay, a good friend, asked me why is that Senator Noynoy Aquino lost 8 percentage points in the latest presidential surveys and he is now statistically tied with Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar. THIS IS INSPITE OF THE FACT THAT 24% OF THE ELECTORATE FAVORS A CANDIDATE WHO IS NOT INVOLVED IN ANY GRAFT CASE AND HAS A VERY GOOD ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAM, TRAITS WHICH NOYNOY AQUINO DEFINITELY HAVE.

Jay, this is my explanation, based on my knowledge on sectoral and ground work and on political reality.

First, Noynoy is losing his traditional bailiwicks and hemorrhaging heavily in areas which were traditionally slanted in favor of the Liberal Party.

There are two (2) explanations behind this: he is losing the ground war and his communication/imaging teams are not helping support ground work.

Every one knows that the Manny Villar team already is mobilizing the best and the brightest grassroots organizers especially in the Luzon corridor. Villar is giving 45,000 pesos for regional coordinators, higher than any other candidate. These organizers have significant influence and numbers in these areas, especially in Northern, Central and Southern Luzon. Look at the latest Pulse Asia survey Jay and you'll find that Noynoy lost in these areas--SIGNIFICANTLY.

Second, Villar's communication teams are COMPLIMENTING ground work, by giving campaign materials and even penetrating barangays and urban poor communities with Manny Villar posters, streamers and leaflets. 

Every one knows that the Liberals are losing their generals and lieutenants and these people are crossing political lines and now working for Villar.

The second major reason is that Noynoy already LOST THE INITIATIVE and his EMOTIONAL CONNECTION with his traditional bailiwicks and those of the middle forces have been whittled especially with his latest television ad.

Manny Villar's TVC is infectious while Noynoy Aquino's latest TVC is funny and stupid, to say the least. It does not connect with the 24-44 age group. 

Noynoy Aquino's TVC shows him rapping the problems of the country away. How stupid! My age group hates rappers. 

This shows that marketing experts are doing a very stupid and damaging work for Noynoy. They are helping Villar, and not Noynoy Aquino. 

Imagine, you're in the lead and you want to IMMITATE THE SECOND LEAD BY SHOWING A TVC WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT TRAILING YOU? STUPID!!

Fact is, in branding, when you're leading, you do not fear. Only those who trail want to imitate the leader. The leader must be extremely confident of his position since that shows that you probably are doing something correct in the first place.

Hey Kris, please LEAVE POLITICS and just settle in your showbiz work. You are not cut out for this. POLITICAL ADS ARE DIFFERENT FROM PRODUCT ADS. 

Lastly, people are slowly realizing that is better to elect a new leader with a very concrete platform than elect someone who just wants to regain an old glory. 

When people of my age group saw Noynoy with the Makati Business Club members in Cebu, it evoked memories of Kamaganak Incorporated and Cory's cronies.

Those images are bringing back memories of corruption during Cory's time. As what I suggested a few entries ago, Noynoy should DISENGAGE HIMSELF from his mother's cabinet members and those of the Hyatt 10 and instead, SHOW NEW FACES.

People want NEW FACES IN GOVERNMENT. IT IS BEST THAT NOYNOY CONSIDERS PRESENTING ATTY. ALEX LACSON or other POLITICAL NEOPHYTES IN THE LIBERAL SLATE more than those traditional political personalities running under the party. 

If the strategic thinkers within Noynoy's group refuses to acknowledge this reality and instead, remain stubborn and stupid, they will eventually lose this war and blame themselves for losing the initiative.

 

That controversial meeting between Mrs. Arroyo and Manny Villar

Last May 2, 2009, New Philippine Revolution exposed the alleged meeting between Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Nacionalista bet Manny Villar. The meeting, arranged by two of Villar's closest associates, Ricky Razon and Manny Zamora, brother of Villar's campaign manager Ronnie Zamora, inspite of denials, did, indeed, happened.

Remember that Villar formally requested Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile's permission to fly out to Spain on the eve of a Senate ethics probe against him. Villar's alibi---that Spain trip was a long promised "second honeymoon" between him and his wife, Congresswoman Cynthia Villar.

Villar took off and his camp did not issue any statement regarding his controversial Spanish trip.

At that time, Mrs. Arroyo, as confirmed by former deputy spokesperson LoreLIE Fajardo, was on her two-country visits to Egypt and Syria. The plan was supposedly divert her itinerary and land on Spain for a brief 10-12 hour "side trip".

However, when some quarters got wind of the supposed meeting, the presidential appointments secretary reportedly got an instruction not to proceed and instead, hold the meeting in the Philippines instead.

New information however leaked out. Last December, when Mrs. Arroyo and her family went to Hongkong for their regular Christmas holiday season vacation, emisaries from the Villar camp were reportedly seen talking with the First Gentleman in one of the ritzy hotels of the island state.

Among those seen with the First Gentleman were members of Villar's inner circle. This was confirmed by one of the members of the entourage.

The question really is---what is so wrong with Villar meeting with Arroyo? If meeting Arroyo means collusion, then, was there any occasion where Noynoy Aquino also met Arroyo and also accused of colluding with the oppressive regime?

Why do I believe Noynoy Aquino is "it"

Why do I believe that Senator Benigno Noynoy Aquino will clinch this year's presidential post? First, every one who has experienced a national campaign will definitely tell you that funders and election groups consider the year-end surveys as barometers of the people's pulse. A 40 plus percent rating is insurmountable. Even if the next survey leader manages to get at least 39% (which is impossible), the survey leader will still win.

Former president Joseph Estrada, at the height of his popularity, only managed to get a 38-41% trust rating. As we all know, Estrada got the highest number of votes ever by a presidential contender.

Since funders always rely on scientific surveys, expect a deluge of financiers and funders to the Liberal party.

Second, I believe that there are only two contenders that will seriously challenge Noynoy Aquino and the Liberals in the end game: Manny Villar and Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro, three if Joseph Estrada continues his campaign (there are talks that Erap will back out in the middle of March or April). Villar is Noynoy's serious opponent. Barring any controversy, Noynoy will squeak a win out of Villar. Villar's machinery will sputter in the end.

Now, since I expect the outbreak of political violence in this elections, Noynoy Aquino will still win in the end if he leads the people's movement against electoral fraud.

Noynoy Aquino Platform of Government

Seems some people online are enjoying themselves, bashing Noynoy Aquino. And why not? These people are still clueless and misinformed, and about what?

What's the platform of your government, Mr. Aquino? When your father ran for Senator and president, he presented a very clear Nationalist-inspired platform, something concrete, lucid and palatable to the tastes of the electorate. In your case Mr. Aquino, nada. Are we, the people, not deserving of your attention? At least during this Christmas break, please find time to sit down with your advisers and hammer out a platform. That way, people will not say that the Noypi campaign is all fizz no substance.

That's what people are saying online about Noynoy. This just shows that these people failed in research.

Noynoy Aquino has 16 very simple "points to ponder" in his site http://www.noynoy.ph/. If Gordon has his transformative politics, Noynoy has his "transformative leadership". The platform has sixteen (16) points, namely:

1. A government headed by a President who will be the foremost crusader against graft and corruption.
2. Job generation is top priority to realize or concretize economic gains or data before the people.
3. Education as central strategy, meaning the Noynoy administration will surely invest in enhancing the skills or the potentialities of human resources to combat poverty.
4. Advancement or improvement of public health.
5. Enhancement of the justice system
6. An Executive department that dispenses equal justice and fair to everyone.
7. Recognition of farms and rural enterprises as key engines for achieving food security.
8. Anti-poor programs that widens economic opportunities for the poor.
9. A government that promotes conditions for growth of all economic sectors, big or small.
10. A government that promotes local employment opportunities and takes care of Filipinos who decide to work abroad.
11. Political appointees chosen based on integrity, competence and performance.
12. Professionalization of the government bureaucracy.
13. A government that promotes gender equality in all spheres of life.
14. " A broadly supported peace initiative" in Mindanao--whatever that means.
15. Allow the building of "Inclusive urban communities"--whatever that means.
16. Sustainable use of natural resources for the betterment of the country.

Notice some familiar key phrases and concepts? Yes, you guessed it---every single word in Noynoy's platform of governance has been reflected in previous State-of-the Nation (SONA) addresses of every single president since Marcos. In fact, read the Medium Term Development Plan of the government---each and every item there is uncannily similar with those found in Noynoy's platform of Government.

Words or key phrases such as "sustainable use of natural resources", " broadly supported peace initiative in Mindanao", "professionalization of the government bureaucracy", "job generation", " equality", and "education as central strategy".

So, do we expect things to change if we elect Noynoy Aquino into office?

Profiling the 2010 Presidentiables

Yesterday, I had the time to write about the psychological profiles of at least four (4) Presidentiables, namely: Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar. Gibo Teodoro and Joseph Estrada. Read it at http://pinoyobserver.com. These posts are very interesting because these look at the psychological aspect rather than qualifications or what-have-you. In political analysis, political psychology is an important tool since this looks at how personalities would react in certain situations.

For example, Noynoy Aquino will suffer from some sort of a physical reaction when faced with a stressful situation. He is a strong-willed individual, believes in what he is fighting for, and has a genuine concern for his fellowmen. Under his administration, Noynoy will definitely allow the present crop of business elites to remain the same, and only those areas or fields that need to be changed will be attended to. Noynoy is also a revolutionary. He will welcome a change in the technological landscape. He loves to be with people and listen to their problems. He also has a philosophical mind.

Despite his public persona, Manny Villar has an independent streak in him. He loves life. He is a calculated risk-taker. He values freedom and is an incurable Optimist. He cherishes new ideas, will try them out, yet, will probably come up with one concrete solution after discussing the others. He is quite an adventure seeker and loves to travel to learn on new things. Definitely, under a Villar presidency, expect more foreign travels with him. Yet, society will be freer and more democratic under his stead.

Gibo, as I learned, has similarities with former president Fidel V. Ramos in terms of management and leadership styles. He is very intelligent, a quick thinker and very creative. He is somewhat a Noynoy Aquino opposite since Gibo will probably be more flexible in terms of welcoming new ideas rather than opposing them.

If you closely look at the psychological profile of former president Joseph Estrada, he surely is destined to be the President of our country. He has all the attributes of a Leader. He is bright, a risk-taker, a zealot, and possesses natural managerial skills. He loves action and hates routine. That's why expect a revival of midnight Cabinet meetings should we elect him back.

I have three more profiles to write---Richard Gordon, JC delos Reyes and Eddie Villanueva. Read them all at PinoyObserver (http://pinoyobserver.com/ or at http://www.pinoyobserver.wordpress.com/).

Noynoy Aquino continues to lead in the presidential race

Senator Noynoy Aquino continues to lead other presidential aspirants in the presidential surveys. In the latest Pulse Asia report, forty four percent of 1,800 adult respondents interviewed said they will vote for Noynoy Aquino as the Philippines' next president. Pulse Asia said Noynoy's ratings remained "stationary", while all others increased.

Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar's ratings improved by 4 points (from 19 to 23%) while Joseph Estrada's ratings went up by 8 points (from 8% to 19%). Gibo Teodoro of the administration party got 3 points after remaining as a cellar dweller for some time. While the other presidential aspirants got ratings of 1% to 0.50%.

The Pulse Asia survey validated our earlier blog entry that says that should Chiz Escudero withdraws from the race, his supporters will increase the ratings of Joseph Estrada and some will possibly go to Noynoy and Manny Villar. It seems though that Escudero's constituency broke up and most transferred to Estrada and Villar.

The Liberal Party welcomed the Pulse Asia results. This shows, says the Liberal, that most people favor the advocacy of the party for an honest and clean government.

As a researcher, these survey results mean these things:

1. Noynoy Aquino, thru his relentless campaign sorties and less the "glamourous" TV ads, is solidfying his mass base support. If he sustains his lead, he will be the most formidable candidate ever in the history of Philippine elections. No other candidate has been given the mandate of 44% ahead of the elections. Joseph Estrada, who commanded the most successful presidential campaign ever, just got between 23-30% ratings ahead of the 1998 elections. He got more than 30% of the electorate vote.

2. Manny Villar's lead is still surmountable. Since Villar got the nationalist block on his side, that is about 2-3 million votes extra for him. Likewise, should the Marcoses endorse him, Villar stands to gain from the Solid North votes. If he solidies support from Mindanao and snatch Visayas away from Noynoy Aquino, it will increase his chances of clinching the presidency.

3. Don't count Joseph Estrada out yet. His ratings continues to surge, a benefit he gained from the withdrawal of Chiz Escudero. However, his mass base will just be between 20-24%, still lower than Noynoy's. In the event that Erap decides to withdraw from the race, his supporters will shift to Villar. That would benefit Villar.

4. Gibo Teodoro needs a miracle to win. He needs to make a public "disengagement" with the Arroyo administration. However, that would only translate into a ratings "push" of 8 points. Arroyo's 4% stable mass base will only be translatable to Teodoro's and give him a ratings of about 11-14%.

Surveys & PR: Waiving the Magic Wand

Surveys as traditional tools for political campaigns have been around since the Cory Aquino administration. SWS surveys came to light after a series of surveys show someone leading prior to the elections and the founder claimed to have "predicted" that person's victory. SWS came into the forefront of things when it "accurately" predicted the poll victory of Joseph Estrada (this is still disputable). It did not, however, foretold of his early ouster.

When numerous questions against surveys cropped up, especially against the "integrity" of these SWS surveys, many of which were "commissioned", up came Pulse Asia of my former professor Felipe Miranda. Pepe Miranda is one of the country's leading political analysts. He is a political science professor of the University of the Philippines-Diliman. He partnered with other political heavyweights and created the survey research group.

So now, people know of just two survey groups---Pulse and SWS. In recent months, their surveys show the same ratings, except for Villar, Aquino and Estrada, they show that Gordon gets a consistent 1% "approval" or " trust" ratings and his partner, Bayani Fernando is a consistent " number 1", meaning 1%.

Gibo's ratings were worst than these two former administration allies---negative 0.80%. Then, it slowly turned to about 1-2% in recent Pulse and SWS surveys. Now, another outfit, called "The Center" reportedly got results indicating that Gibo's ratings are now double digits. And that is, shortly after that Harapan debates over at ANC. Wow.

Two things---when PR guys drop their pants and use the pure discipline of marketing research to back up their rah-rah sisboomba campaigns for their clients, surveys tend to magically turn into a wand. Yes, a wand, a very dangerous one.

When PR guys create survey groups, and these survey groups magically churn up data to support whoever commissioned them for PR work, not research, they waive the survey like a wand and presto! Their clients immediately turn from "dismal" to "winnable".

And when surveys are used and manipulated for unjust ends, research gets a very bad reputation. Instead of being in the service of the electorate, research and surveys are now being transformed into PR tools.

I do not dispute however, that Noynoy's ratings are "slowing down" and "going south" (if that what "stationary dive" means) since that essentially is the law of the universe--everything "heavy" must come down. Statistics always follow a historical trend, since it depends much on previous actions and preferences.

Yet, prematurely announcing it seemed more of PR rather than a credible survey. That it was announced in an untimely manner shows that the survey was a manipulated one and not credible at all. How in the world can you process 1,200 respondents in one week, granting that indeed, you pooled these respondents together and processed their responses? That's possible if you just have one question. But, how can the "Center" came up with assumptions that are more qualitative than quantitative. It does not make any sense.

It makes sense though if PR firms or guys involved in Public Relations wave the magic wand.

"The Survey" of " The Center"

Ed Malay, a publicist, created The Issues and Advocacy Center or "Center", purportedly a survey group. A PR man of former president Fidel V. Ramos, Malay spearheaded surveys on presidentiables, the most recent, a survey reportedly showing administration candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro's "surge" and Liberal party candidate Noynoy Aquino's "stationary dive".

I've been in the strategic marketing research for a very long time (since my MA in Comm Res-UP Dil), managing survey groups for banks in Singapore before (Citibank, AMEX, etc.) and even helped in creating a research group (ITMC) which assist private companies and in a decade of involvement, this is the first time that I encountered the term "stationary dive". What in the world does this mean?

The "Center" said that Noynoy Aquino continues to lead Manny Villar by 7 points, yet the "Center" noted "the survey" shows Aquino's ratings slowly levelling to a point where it is now just 31%. Malay, however, said that Noynoy continues to show strength in the "super regions", yet, highly praised Gibo Teodoro for getting at least double digit ratings (10%) after the presidential debates.

And it seems that the "Center" was created to specifically aid in the candidacy of two formidable administration allies---Gibo Teodoro and Richard Gordon. Whereas these two always get single digit (and rather dismal) ratings in Pulse Asia and SWS (Gibo--2%; Gordon--1 or even less), "The Center" says in "The Survey", that Gibo is now double digits and Gordon "at least 8%". Wow. Talk about statistical improbabilities, this one is phenomenal.

Look at what Ed Malay told the media about "The Survey" results:

“The other significant movements were Teodoro’s climb to 10 percent on the strength of his bold decisions on the Maguindanao massacre and his impressive showing in two presidential debates, and former President Joseph Estrada’s 19 percent as he bounced back from last October’s survey,” he said.


“Sen. Dick (Richard) Gordon also began to make his presence felt with eight percent.”


Malay said Teodoro benefited from the positive reviews that he has been generating from the public debates among the presidential aspirants, as well as his handling of the Maguindanao massacre even when he was no longer defense secretary."

See the PR standpoint? Let me reproduce with the permission of the Philippine Star and Paolo Romero, what Ed Malay, the publicist cum survey man, told a news conference about what "The Center" noted:

In the wake of the Maguindanao massacre, Filipinos “have begun to look not only at the qualifications of the presidential aspirants but also at the experience and capability of each to lead the country in 2010 and beyond,” he added.



Malay said the presidential debates became a springboard for Teodoro by highlighting the qualities of strong leadership and bold ideas associated with strong leaders.


"The debates were most harmful to Noynoy,” he said.


“(They) exposed the weakness and lack of depth on the basic issues by the neophyte senator when ranged against a more knowledgeable and experienced candidate such as Teodoro who topped the 1985 bar exams.”


With the elections five months away, the Center sees a further tightening of the race among the top four or five candidates, Malay said.


Malay described Aquino’s once-formidable lead – driven by public outpouring over his mother’s death in August – as a ”myth” and a “bubble.”


He cited an earlier survey by The Center taken Oct. 19 to 26, 2009 where a “stationary dive” in Aquino ratings was detected.


The survey was the first since Dec. 1 after the candidates had filed their COCs with the Commission on Elections.


Malay said the survey was a more focused and accurate assessment of voters’ sentiments than earlier ones.


“People have started narrowing down their choices and preferences, basing them not on rhetoric but on what each presidential candidate represents such as their platform of governance, family values, advocacy of issues, and the viability of the roadmap each has proposed to lead the Philippines out the political and economic doldrums,” he said.


Malay said the survey asked respondents the question, “Who would you vote for from among the list of nine presidential aspirants (Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar, Erap Estrada, Gibo Teodoro, Dick Gordon, Bro. Eddie Villanueva, JC de los Reyes, Jamby Madrigal and Nicky Perlas) if elections were to be held today?”


Reacting to The Center’s survey, Zambales Rep. Mitos Magsaysay said it only “confirms the crowd-drawing charms of Teodoro, who visited several cities across the country in denims and green polo shirts, even without celebrities in tow.”– Paolo Romero

Malay mo tama si Ed. At malay mo din ang "Sentro" ay ginagamit lamang para kay Gibo. You'll never know--Malay ni Ed.
Wow. Talk about surveys, this one is definitely PR-related. "The Center" is one wrecking crew, trying very hard to project that Gibo is the man to beat in this elections and trying to justify that political machinery still works here.

Shalani Soledad---single mother?

We got a lot of buzz from residents of Valenzuela and other people when I posted this entry about Shalani Soledad, the fiance of Senator Noynoy Aquino over at Filipino News Network (see the entry at http://filipinonewsnetwork.com/2009/08/13/whos-noynoys-girl-a-closer-look-at-shalani-soledad/). I never thought that entries about Shalani would actually get 182 (http://filipinonewsnetwork.com/2009/09/12/shalani-soledad-noynoy-aquino-and-the-people-of-valenzuela-politics-and-intriques/) comments. This is even bigger than FilipinoVoices.com.


Initially, I wrote a very nice entry about Shalani. Yet, when responses and comments were pouring in, information suddenly appeared denying most of the facts about Shalani. For example, an alleged close family friend of the Soledads said that Shalani's real surname is not Soledad but the surname of her mother. There were malicious insinuations from commenters that Shalani had a Saudi for a father and so on. Likewise, there was information about Carlo, the brother of Shalani, having a spat with her and the alleged manipulations done by her uncle to Shalani, and so on and so forth.

What was damning however, was the information that some residents gave us---that Shalani Soledad reportedly sired a child out of wedlock.


Yes, and people say the father is Atty. Jimboy (some call him Jiboy) Cabochan, now connected with the Bureau of Customs

I know Jimboy, he's a fraternity brother of mine and he's a kababayan. His family hails from the same hometown--San Miguel Bulacan. And the Cabochans are political heavyweights in that side of Bulacan. (QC Councilor Atty. Bong Suntay and Jiboy Cabochan are cousins.) The Cabochans even founded a fraternity at the San Beda College of Law, purportedly the biggest there---Lambda Rho Beta.


I don't know, however, if this out of wedlock thing is true. I lost Jiboy's number. Jiboy graduated from his law studies at San Beda College of Law sometime in the late 1990's. He's a certified ladies' man but I don't exactly know if he has a son with Shalani.


If this is true, then, these information are damaging not just to Shalani, but to Noynoy Aquino. Anyway, nothing wrong if Shalani has a child out of wedlock, since she and Jiboy are not married anyway. So, there's no legal impediment for a marriage between her and Noynoy.


Now that Shalani Soledad is now a public figure, due to her association with Noynoy, it is in the best interest of Shalani to explain these things. These malicious rumours could ruin not just Shalani's, but also Noynoy's career.


Another accusation against Shalani---the Valenzuela councilor reportedly LIED about her academic and personal information record.


Ms. Soledad---could you please explain all of these things para maliwanagan ang taumbayan?
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