Even Detained General Danny Lim convinced of NP involvement in fake Noynoy psych record

Let me publish here the complete Press statement of Brigadier General Danny Lim on the fake psych report issue initiated by the Nacionalista Party.

Gen. Lim to Villar: Apologize for fake psychiatric report

Rebel general says NP’s smear campaign is unwarranted, asks Villar to do a Manny Pangilinan

“Apologize.”

This is the simple unsolicited advice given by Brigadier General Danilo “Danny” Lim to Nacionalista Party standard bearer Manuel “Manny” Villar on the fake psychiatric report which claimed that Liberal party presidential bet Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III was clinically depressed and smoked marijuana.

In a statement released on Monday, the detained general said a simple apology from Villar could give immediate closure to this issue. He urged the NP standard-bearer to replicate the humility of another “Manny”, who he said, “took the responsibility of owing up to his indiscretion.”

“I urge Senator Villar to do a Manny Pangilinan,” Lim said. “A true national leader is capable of acknowledging when he is at fault, whether he or his people caused the transgression. As such, I ask, can Villar do that? Can he swallow his pride and admit wrongdoing?  

Lim said the mere fact that institutions such as ABS-CBN and Ateneo De Manila University already confirmed that the alleged psychiatric analysis of Aquino was fake and was sourced from the NP are enough reasons for Villar to seek apology and owe responsibility.

“Instead of cashing in on this propped up controversy which is only wasting our time and hurting many people, Villar should be responsible enough to order his people to stop from further escalating the issue,” Lim said.

Lim is reacting to the Villar camp’s statement on Sunday challenging Aquino to address the issues contained in the fake psychiatric report.

“It flies in the face of logic. To begin with, the document is a forgery. So how could somebody respond to such a report without making a fool of himself? Naturally, Noynoy will not dignify this,” Lim said.

Lim who is also running for senator in the May polls appealed for sobriety. He said instead of engaging in mudslinging, candidates especially those seeking the presidency should engage in a passionate and communicative “platform brawl.”

“As a substitute for mudslinging and empty bravado, I strongly suggest we focus our energies in elevating the level of the electoral discourse. Let’s talk about real issues, concrete platforms and policy proposals,” Lim asserted.

The bemedalled soldier said candidates resorting heavily to black propaganda and smear campaigns are those who are incapable of firm reasoning and democratic persuasion. He said the Filipino voters deserve “better exchanges from better candidates.”

“Let’s prove to the voting public we are deserving of their votes. Let’s be the candidates they want us to be,” Lim said.

Lim also challenged all presidential candidates to make public their plan on how to restore good democratic governance after Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s nine-year misrule. He particularly issued the challenge to Villar who recently was bombarded with accusations that he is Arroyo’s secret candidate.

“I suggest Villar put more energy in disproving this accusation instead of the fake Aquino psychiatric report. The VillArroyo tag will not go way by simply dismissing it. The only way to repudiate it is for the NP presidential bet to set the record straight on how he will make Arroyo accountable for her crimes against the people. Again I ask, is Villar up to it?” Lim ended. 

The Undecided is growing while Voters suffer from "Villar fatigue"

Joseph Goebbels, Hitler's propagandist, once said that if you repeat a lie long enough, it becomes truth.

IN the case of Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar, the more he hammers his pro-poor message, the more people disbelieve him. Advertising, in this case, is really not doing him any good.

As what this blog wrote a few weeks ago, Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar's survey ratings continue to plummet, but surprisingly, the previous observation that his fall would benefit Estrada seemed erroneous.

Yet, it is not about Villar's steady fall in the ratings game that is so alarming---it is the growing number of voters who are shifting, from having a choice to "undecided".

Villar feel four percentage points more, from 29% to just 25% in the latest March Pulse Asia survey. Analysts (and that includes this writer) presumed that the decrease in the ratings of Villar will benefit Estrada, but this survey did not reflect such. Instead of Estrada, the voters actually went to other candidates and most, if not, all voters who dropped Villar as their candidate went to Gordon and went from having a choice to "undecided".

From a mere 6%, the undecided now stands at 9%--similar to the figure which SWS published a few weeks back. This "Undecided" is a crucial one for the three leading presidential candidates because if one of them gets a big chunk of this "sector" of the electorate, then, he levels the playing field.

Presidential frontrunner Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino gained one percentage point higher, this time at 37%. Estrada's numbers did not change---it remained at 18%, which probably shows that the Estrada "magic" has already waned or "plateau-ed". This means that, even if Estrada's numbers suddenly gain, it will not be enough to challenge Aquino's whose numbers are slowly improving.

This survey is very important for three (3) things:

1. This contradicts earlier presumptions that the more a candidate exposes himself on media, especially television, the more he gains supporters. Villar's ads are everywhere, even in cyberspace, yet the ads were not able to arrest his slide. This is expected since advertising just tells people what's the product is but does not have the ability to further explain other features of the product, something curable by Public Relations.

I think that the public is suffering from "Villar fatigue"--people are being overwhelmed by messages about him that instead of him getting positive feedback, he is now getting negative ones. Villar probably forgot that overdoing things is simply bad. Swamping us with ads appeals to kids--not to voters. Repetition of the same message tires the mind and a mind swamped with information will definitely reject the message.

2. Aquino should not rejoice in this latest survey findings because he is not benefitting from Villar's steady slide--his opponents are. Yes, he got one percentage point higher but this does not translate into a very comfortable position for him, no. People who reject Villar are shifting not to Aquino but to other candidates and worst, going to undecided. If the "undecided" grows bigger, this will be the number which election fraudsters will use to justify a fraudulent elections.

For example, if the undecided balloons to say 12 to 15%, this figure can be used by the camps of, say Estrada to justify a win (15% plus 18% is 33%--near Aquino's 37%; Teodoro's number is at 7% plus, say 12% becomes 19%--a figure which may force a 3-way fight) or even that of the administration. Or, even Villar himself.

Remember that the biggest gainer so far in any presidential race was Estrada whose 35% vote in 1998 remains formidable. Statistically, the best that Aquino will be able to get is around 30 to 32% which is still not quite a majority vote if you ask me.

In a 3-way fight, if all bets are off, then you have Aquino getting near 30%, Villar getting near 30% and Estrada getting probably also near 30%--meaning a statistical tie. Or, the scenario may also be Aquino just squeezing a few percentage points higher than Villar and Teodoro getting the undecided votes to himself, which will propel him eventually to an even status with both Villar and Aquino.

Meaning, Pulse Asia's analyst Ana Marie Tacorda is correct afterall--the presidential race is still "anybody's game". Aquino is still not yet in the safe zone.

3. If the undecided is growing, this indicates that people are still looking for candidates to vote as president. This is bad news for both Aquino and Villar because it allows their other political opponents to gain more of the territories they are losing. This is clearly good news for Teodoro, since if this news about Teodoro losing the Arroyos' support gain traction and leads to a "perception" that Teodoro is slowly turning himself loose from the administration, then it may improve his ratings for the next survey (in the latest Pulse Asia, this alleged news about Teodoro losing Arroyo support has not been published yet).

The best thing is for Aquino to continue campaigning in the provinces, continue strengthening his support from the ABC class, continue getting more support from the E-class and fortify his political alliances in the Luzon and Mindanao regions. Aquino needs to reach out to the undecided to deter his political opponents from catching up.

For Villar, all I can say is simply desist from the public eye, decrease your ads and try to allow your senatoriables to gain more traction. Fortify your hold of the E-class and regain what you lost from the ABC class. You have three more weeks to do it.

For Teodoro--continue what you are doing because you might probably be surprised of the result. You are gaining support from the ABC class, but you are not connecting with the D-E.

IN the case of Estrada, the former president should improve his relationship with the ABC class and regain those territories he lost to Villar in the D class. If he improves his communication strategy and connects more to the ABC class, that will surely affect Villar and help him level the field in a 2-way fight with Aquino.

Manny Villar and his wealth: The story is not if he's poor

There were reports and columns written questioning the real socio-economic status of Nacionalista party standard-bearer Manny Villar. I read some and really, I don't see the point of Villar's political opponents beating a dead horse just to hit him.

For one, who among us really care whether he was born poor or he was a member of the middle class? The fact that he became a billionaire without hurting himself or others is something every one should emulate. The story is not about his roots--the real story is how he amassed that great wealth.

Did Villar stole money from the public coffers just to be the wealthiest legislator of the land? Did Villar sold sub-standard or poorly constructed housing projects that frustrate the dreams of those who bought them?

And did he used his position to help his various companies grow in wealth?

These are the more substantial issues rather than telling people that he lied about his Tondo roots. Give Villar the benefit of the doubt. If he really grew up poor like us, then, so be it. If he grew up in a middle class family, well and good. The point really is how Villar amassed great wealth. That's the story.

I think this thing attacking Villar's proletarian roots will backfire simply because he is exploiting it for his advantage. Villar is now going around town, picturing himself as the underdog.

And you know what? It worked for him before. When he was being attacked personally and he went around town telling people that he was being persecuted by the elite, Villar was able to get a very high survey ratings. The formula is simple--have yourself attacked, become an underdog and the people will sympathize with you.

The Liberals should not do such a thing simply because it will only allow Villar to hug the headlines and recover lost territories.

The greatest loss for Villar came from the middle class, with 16 percentage point drop. The Liberals should concentrate on graft and corruption issues against Villar and his being perceived as an Arroyo stooge. Then, that would definitely affect him.

Manny Villar is no Teflon guy: Villar mass balloon has burst open

The latest Pulse Asia survey this month is very, very significant for two (2) reasons: one the survey employed or mimicked the conditions which are expected in an automated elections and two, the survey was conducted barely two and a half months away from the May 10, 2010 polls. And we all know in the politics business that surveys conducted during the periods of February AND March reflect a truer pulse of the public preference than those of April.

36% favors Noynoy as President

Thirty six percent (36%) of those surveyed said they prefer Liberal party presidential candidate Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino over all others, a one percentage point drop from his previous 37% rating.

What is very significant is the monumental drop in the ratings of Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar. From a statistical tie last month, Villar dropped to 29% after being in the spotlight for his role in the highly controversial and corrupt C-5 road project. As expected, a drop in Villar's ratings benefitted former president Joseph Estrada who improved to 18%. This belies earlier statements from the Nacionalista Party that their bet will further increase in rankings following the statistical tie standing last January.

That 6% drop in Villar's ratings went to Estrada. This shows two (2) things: first Villar does not have a support base which he can confidently call his own and second, his mass base will be diluted by the improving numbers of former president Joseph Estrada.

The Liberal party therefore, must change tack and re-direct their efforts at party strengthening and continuous party building instead of worrying on attacks made by the Nacionalista party. Attacks by the Nacionalista will definitely fall by the wayside.

Meaning, Noynoy and his gang should sit comfortably in their chairs and let former president Joseph Estrada improve his media image more. Estrada has to regain his old bailiwicks, which will actually benefit the Liberals more than the Nacionalistas.

Meaning, to seal a Noynoy victory, Estrada should stay in the race. If he balks or decides to withdraw, his entire constituency will shift to Villar.

A re-invigorated Estrada campaign machinery will further dilute Villar's numbers, and expose the weakness of the Nacionalista campaign machinery. Some analysts whom I talked with in some email exchanges say the next few weeks will reflect the true base support of Villar which lies in the vicinity of 17% to about 23%. That 29% mass base support still has some segments of the Estrada constituency and if Estrada continues his media campaign and increases his media awareness and his Jeep ni Erap and Tricycle in Erap campaign machinery kicks in this March 26, this is really bad news for Villar.

A drop in Noynoy's numbers improves Gilbert Teodoro's chances

Liberal Party has to be extremely vigilant though with the 2% surge of Gilbert Gibo Teodoro.

Teodoro's numbers are improving because he is eating up a very miniscule part of Noynoy's constituency and consolidating support bases of other minor or weaker candidates such as Madrigal's, Perlas' and JC delos Reyes'. The 1% drop of Noynoy and all other weaker candidates went to Gilbert Teodoro.

To avert such situation, these candidates should probably withdraw and throw support behind Noynoy Aquino. That way, Noynoy's constituency will not be diluted nor affected by the on-going campaigns being launched by Teodoro.

Apart from this though is the fact that the highly vaulted Lakas-Kampi machinery has not kicked in and this is a comfortable 15% which is not reflected at all in the surveys. By all estimation, Teodoro has about 22-23% preference ratings in the final stretch, and surely, this will not be enough to defeat Noynoy.

The C-5 road controversy and other accusations which point to previous graft practices by Villar will continue to affect his chances. The C-5 road, "Villarroyo" and his overspending are issues which the masses understand and has in fact, caused very serious concerns and doubts about Villar. No amount of PR-related actions will avert this and I seriously think that Villar should re-study his strategies and tactics and maybe come out with activities on how to stop these issues from spilling over the urban and rural communities.

War Cabinet

While Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile accuses colleague Senator Edgardo Angara of trying to "broker" talks between Senators Manny Villar and Richard Gordon at the height of the C-5 road controversy, the administration maneuvers to tighten its grip over the State.

Members of PMA Class 1978 are now positioned in very sensitive posts in the military and PNP, as what this blog tried to warn the public last year. Members of the class are poised to ascend power by March, the month when General Victor Ibrado retires. Calls for the extension of Ibrado's term fell on deaf ears. Mrs. Arroyo is determined to appoint a very close friend and "mistah", Lt. General. Delfin Bangit as the New Chief of Staff ahead of the May 10 elections.

Not that Bangit and members of PMA Class 1978 are unqualified--the timing is really suspicious, what with their honorary member in her last days in power.

Fact is, Mrs. Arroyo and her cohorts are really doing it quite well, what with the appointment of General Mendoza as Executive secretary. Mendoza, as everybody knows, is not just a loyal soldier--he is, in fact, the president's "enforcer." Mendoza proved his mettle during EDSA dos and numerous stinking deals as DOTC secretary.

What we are seeing is in fact, preparatory to the formation of a war cabinet, with Arroyo's most trustworthy mistahs controlling both the AFP and the PNP and her trustworthy enforcer serving as Little President. Nothing suspicious with a former General holding power as Executive secretary. The timing is really off.

And if you look at it more closely, other PMA classes have positioned themselves behind presidential candidates, a move which tells you something. PMA Class 1977 and other classes have been supporting Manny Villar, while others support Gibo, Erap, Gordon and some even support Noynoy. These classes are like Guardians of the political elite, ready to act in the event of widespread fraud or a discredited elections.

Though Arroyo promises to lead a smooth transition of power by June, with these formations and configurations, you'll get a sense where the Nation is really headed after the elections. And you can't really blame yourself from actually having that stinking feeling that something very dangerous will happen sooner or later.

Manny Villar's 20 peso anti-poverty program

How to spot an Arroyo mini mini-me? Simple. Just tag those who give 20 pesos to young kids. Or those who give scholarship grants like playing Mickey Mouse money.

Ask Manny Villar. And of course, his alleged political opponent cum chuwawah, Gibo Teodoro. They both think giving 20 peso bills to impoverished kids is not a violation of election rules.

Probably, its not a violation of any thing. Giving bills to kids who are very young to be voters can't be an infraction of any bill, law or any code. Kids are obviously not voters.

What is so damningly stupid about what they are doing is simply teach the very evils of corruption and ingraining these in very young minds.

That, this early, they are teaching kids that politicians ought to give money to the poor. That giving money, the very act of sharing what they stole anyway, is a good and easy way to reach the hearts and minds of the suffering masses.

Arroyo herself has this brilliant idea when she distributed money to the poor at the height of the economic crisis. Those were not dole-outs, her government defended her acts--it was an assistance coming from the president's heart.

Bull. Crap.

After that, Arroyo got 76% of Filipinos shouting her ouster. So much for dole-ing out the people's hard earned monies.

Same goes to scholarship grants. These grants are not some Mickey Mouse money to be played around. Grants should be earned, not distributed like some worthless piece of paper. How would you change the mind-sets of the proletarian class, when, this early, these two nincoompoops go around town, giving scholarship grants and 20 peso bills.

In the eyes of those in the slums, everything is earned, not given. When you give something, its automatic (even axiomatic) that you expect something in return, probably, like singing "Naging Mahirap" campaign songs?

Giving money and soliciting votes through scholarship grants perpetuate poverty and corruption. It does not sit well with the poor that these two candidates treat them as a group of mendicants waiting for manna.

Candidates can best serve the poorest of the poor by serving the Country with the utmost honesty and integrity.

And please naman, do stop this stupid and wasteful practice of campaigning. It does not help our people lift themselves from poverty.

Is this Manny Villar's way of uplifting the very situation of the poor, by giving them 20 pesos or scholarship grants that mean nothing? Is this the "formula" against poverty?

I shudder at the very thought that Ka Satur Ocampo and Liza Masa are tolerating these campaign practices. These are happening at the very tip of their noses. Whenever they are there, they are destroying the very equity of the Bayan Muna and Gabriela names. Its inevitable that the masses associate them with these despicable Manny Villar antics.

Sometimes I think that one of the signs that the end of everything is very near when good men decide to party with the corrupt just for survival.

Noynoy still tops the surveys, yet Manny Villar is narrowing the lead. Or so it seems..

Forty two percent of Pinoys will vote for Senator Noynoy Aquino while 35% will go for Senator Manny Villar and thirteen percent to former president Joseph Estrada. The survey was commissioned by BusinessWorld, and conducted by SWS during the period January 21-24, 2010. 

The gap is just seven percentage points, which, in all indications, point to a near-statistical tie already between Villar and Noynoy. If Villar closes the gap further and sustains it, that will surely hurt Noynoy's chances of clinching the top spot.

IN the vice presidential race, forty nine percent (49%) of Filipino voters will go to Mar Roxas while twenty or so percent will vote for Loren and running closely is Makati mayor Jejomar Binay.

Bong Revilla tops the senatorial race, along with my friend, Joey de Venecia III. Joey de Venecia's III campaign is taking on a whole new tack, with his newest television ad. He's just one percentage point shy from Teofisto Guingona's which is placed at 11th spot. 

Now, let us analyze why Noynoy's lead continues to drop.

Like I said in my earlier posts, it is natural for Noynoy's ratings to settle in a realistic spot after his phenomenal "surge" to the top a few months ago. That's the law of the universe---every single thing which has weight will surely come down. A 50% or so ratings is definitely NOT a true reflection of the public's political preference for any single one candidate or personality. Noynoy's true ratings will actually be within the region of 36-40% and come May 10, 2010, that will surely go down to about 32-35%, reflective of what former president Joseph Estrada got when he ran and won in the 1998 presidential elections.

Now, the entire political scenario will change IF the following happens in the next few months:

1. Lakas-Kampi endorses VILLAR

2. Erap withdraws and endorses VILLAR

3. Ed Villanueva withdraws and endorses NOYNOY

4. Gibo's campaign sputters for lack of funds

A Lakas-Kampi endorsement for Villar will surely bolster his campaign machinery and widens his lead. An Erap endorsement will seal the deal for Villar (which in all probability, will never happen).

A likely possibility is for other reformist minded candidates to just rally behind Noynoy and put a very solid progressive and reformist movement or block. That will end the dreams of Villar for the presidency.

Oust Enrile move is dirty face of traditional politics

Calls for the ouster of Senator Juan Ponce-Enrile is being spearheaded by Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar and with him, are Senators Aquilino Pimentel and Alan Peter Cayetano. What is quite disturbing is these men are using the argument of the constitutional line of succession in justifying their coup d'etat against Enrile.

We all know that Villar has been hurt by the Senate report linking him to the anomalous C-5 road controversy. And Enrile was the one who recommended that Villar be censured and for Villar to return the 6.2 billion pesos his companies took from the government coffers.

Villar, including his allies at the Senate, refuse to give back the monies they reportedly stole from the public coffers.

Villar and his allies planned a coup last week which fizzled out.

And who is the Senator whom Villar wants as Enrile's replacement? It is no other than Senator Edgardo Angara, the one who brokered the Villar-Legarda merger.

If the Villar bloc really wants to safeguard and assure a smoother transition, then, they should not push for Angara since we all know who Angara supports as president. Everyone knows that Angara is one of Villar's most trusted associate.

I would withdraw my opposition if Villar will only promise to give back that 6.2 billion pesos which he got from the C-5 project.

Villar is mocking the Senate: Where is Lacson, Legarda and Pangilinan?

Where were Senators Panfilo Lacson and Loren Legarda in yesterday's Senate session? They were supposed to support Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile. Legarda and Lacson were at the forefront of the Senate attempt to probe Villar's unethical practices. Yet, they were not around when the Senate was supposed to take up that report.

Mr. Lacson, what gives? And Ms. Legarda--where is your loyalty? Is it to Villar or to the Nation?

And how about Senator Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan who signed the report written by no less than Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile? Was Pangilinan asked by his friend Villar not to attend yesterday's session?

Where is your loyalty, Mr. Pangilinan? To Villar or to the Nation who suffered?

Senator Manny Villar should not mock the very institution which professes to be the last bastion of democracy in this country. Villar should not hide behind the "alibi" of political propaganda and face the accusations like a man. Why is Villar so afraid of facing his colleagues before the Filipino People? 

Like what a judge said, guilty people, they are those who usually make the wrong excuses.

Villar is trying to weaken the very institution which took care of him for so many years and which, allowed him to get 6.22 billion pesos from the public coffers, the very same monies he is now using to get to the top spot.

Villar should be man enough to admit that he erred or at the very least, acted in an unethical manner.

If you look at it, this C-5 report serves as the final nail to seal Villar's campaign for the presidency. Senator Jamby Madrigal wants Villar charged before the Ombusman and Madrigal should be supported by the People.

This C-5 probe will serve as the Damocles sword hanging above Villar's head even if he wins the May 10, 2010 elections. This will forever haunt him and will mar his administration, if he wins.

And this is a very bad thing for us, the Filipino People. We do not deserve someone with a graft case again sitting as president.

Manny Villar cost the Filipino People 6.22 Billion pesos, says Senate C-5 report

And its out.

Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile just confirmed that twelve senators already signed the committee report on the controversial C-5 road project. Enrile, who wrote the report, says that these signatures will allow the Senate to take up the report on the floor by today.

According to the report, the C-5 road project which was recommended by Villar himself, has caused the Filipino people more than 6.22 billion.

The money came from the realigned P4.28 billion for the extension project, the P1.8 billion spent for the original project but which was wasted due to the realignment, and the P141.1 million in overpriced right-of-way payments for Villar’s real estate.

Those who signed the report includes: Enrile, Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada, Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel Zubiri, and Senators Rodolfo Biazon, Panfilo Lacson, Jamby Madrigal, Edgardo Angara, Benigno Aquino III, Sen. Manuel Roxas II, Francis Pangilinan, Richard Gordon and Francis Escudero.

The report says that:

Villar violated the conflict-of-interest rule by not divesting himself of his interests in Adelfa Properties, Golden Haven Memorial Park and Azalea Real Estate Corp. (now Brittany Corp.) when it was apparent to him that these corporations had a contract with the public works department for right-of-way acquisition.

That prompted the Senate to censure Villar.

The question really is---is this part of the political game? Is this part of efforts to villify a presidential candidate?

Okey, even if it was, indeed, part of a shame campaign the final point is still this---WILL VILLAR RESPECT THE INSTITUTION THAT WANTS HIM CENSURED BY BRINGING BACK ALL THOSE MONIES WHICH HE ALLEGEDLY TOOK FROM THE FILIPINO PEOPLE?

WILL VILLAR BE GENTLEMANLY ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY SAY THAT HE WILL RETURN THAT 6.22 BILLION BACK?

If you will look at this issue very closely, this is a matter of respect in the institution which Villar considers himself member of.

Beyond politics, I think it is incumbent upon Villar, as a gentleman, to respect the institution of the Senate.

If he will just accuse this institution of political propagana and what-have-you, this is just a vile attempt to obfuscate the real issue, which is--this institution demands your censure and you must respect its decision.

Again, the dare is---will you, Mr. Villar, give back all those 6.22 billion which you took from us?
 Villar is being made to pay back those billions he took from the public coffers.

Aquino asks Villar--"Where were you when we were fighting the abuses of Arroyo?"

“When you see that there is oppression and you do nothing, you are in effect also supporting that oppressive system.”

This is the quiant response of Liberal party bet Noynoy Aquino on the swipe made by Nacionalista party presidential candidate Senator Manny Villar on his ability to lead the nation in reforms.


Aquino took a jibe at Villar for questioning his capability to lead the nation in genuine reforms. In last Saturday’s presidential debates, Villar took the bull by the horns and lambasted Aquino for two things: (1) Aquino’s alleged lack of managerial competence and (2) the Liberal party’s inability to lead the Nation towards change.

Aquino hits Villar in the jugular by pointedly asking Villar why was he, as Senate president, absent in all those hearings and public fights against the abuses committed by the Arroyo administration.


Manny Villar---an Arroyo surrogate candidate?


Aquino says that even Villar’s shadow was nowhere to be found during those times when all the People were questioning the illegal deals made by the Arroyo administration, particularly that which happened in the NBN-ZTE deal.


For Aquino, this just proves one thing–Villar is also in collusion with the Arroyo administration.

When push came to shove, where were you? What have you done? He says he is not a person who easily picks a fight, but when you see the abuses in the system, does it not make you want to stand up and say enough is enough?” Aquino said in an interview.

Aquino’s diatribe against Villar confirms earlier suspicions that Villar is actually the dummy candidate of Mrs. Arroyo.

Noynoy Aquino's ratings is still high

I've been in the business of marketing research for more than eight years now, which started with my stint in Singapore. And one of the things I believe that I can expertly call an expertise is market surveys and other tools of market research. Being a post-graduate student in Communications research from the University of the Philippines-Diliman, I can look at the figures of a survey and provide an accurate reading.

When the first survey results came out, showing Noynoy Aquino's ratings at 56%, I was first to write that this is actually not a good thing since, this rating will eventually go down. Why? First, historically, no one has ever maintained such a high rating, even the ever popular former president Joseph Estrada. Second, previous elections would show you that presidentiables maintain just a ratings of between 25-32%, the highest one Erap got. And Erap got more than 35-40% of the electorate votes in 1998, the highest ever by a president.

Now, it would be presumptuous for anyone to say that an Aquino would replicate an Erap. Of course, that would totally be impossible.

Aquino's rating is now pegged at 44%, no significant improvement from his previous month's ratings. This just shows that Aquino's "natural constituency" of 40-44% is still high. Meaning, even if Manny Villar whittles the margins down to 11 percentage points, it would still be impossible for Villar to actually catch up with Aquino.

What had happened in the current ratings game is simple---Chiz Escudero's supporters have naturally broken up and most of them actually benefited Manny Villar instead of Estrada. Probably, some segments of the Youth support for Chiz gravitated to Teodoro, that's why Teodoro's ratings "improved" to 5% from 0.8%

Yet, like what I wrote some weeks ago, Villar's and Escudero's camps share the same constituency and evidently, when Escudero withdrew from the race, most of them would shift to Villar and some also to Noynoy.

Now, the entire game would change if Escudero suddenly goes public and express his support to Noynoy Aquino. When that happens, Villar's numbers would be affected and it would surely go down to about 4-6 percentage points. Aquino's numbers would also widen and other presidentiables will not be able to catch up.

So, the present ratings "boost" for Villar is not entirely a good thing for the Nacionalista bet. This will still change and Villar's will eventually plateau between 27-33%, still not enough to give Aquino a good showing at the polls. 

Do I agree with Senator Aquilino Pimentel's statement saying that the "emotional support" of the people for Noynoy is slowing down? Yes, I agree. 

In fact, as early as December of last year, support for Noynoy Aquino has ceased to be just an emotional knee-jerk reaction after the death of Cory. What we saw as the 44% ratings of Noynoy is a manifestation already of "rational choice".

Take note---Noynoy's ratings right now are more "believable" since these reflect rational choices already by a significant number of the electorate.

Meaning, all the Liberals have to do is maintain the current 40-44% support and bar any controversy, and they will win eventually.

Now, what would make Villar win over Noynoy? Let us make a comprehensive study about that in my next blog entry, so stay tuned.

Why Do I think Manny Villar deserves the presidency

I had previous reservations about Manny Villar. I thought that he's running for the presidency out of sheer madness. Yep. Imagine, you own several properties. You're a certified billionaire already. You got the top plums in the legislature already. What more can you ask for?

Why waste 5 billion pesos just to get elected? Is the presidency worth that much?

For someone like Villar, who came from the ranks of the proletariat, being president is a childhood dream. Several decades ago, most kids in Metro Manila dream of either being a doctor, an astronaut, or...being president someday. Even someone as dirt poor as I was, I once dreamt of being an astronaut or at best, the President of the Republic of the Philippines.

Of course, I did not get to be an astronaut nor the president of this country but I am proud to say that, I got more than what I bargained for---I became a journalist and a teacher.

For Villar, being president is more than any other vocation. Its a mission. A mission to spread his message that anything is possible. That someone as poor as he was before can actually become a billionaire and probably even president someday.

That for me is a better proposition than Noynoy's, who just want to continue a legacy which we are not even aware of today.

And when Villar says that every Filipino can rise above poverty, he is talking from experience. Villar is an incurable optimist and we need someone like him to give us at least some hope that our future, and the future of our children will be as bright as his.

Villar also has the character and the strength of a Leader. Who, in his right mind, would actually get opposing groups together in one political party? Two decades ago, it was unimaginable for a member of the Leftist movement to be seen with a member of the Marcos family. Now, Satur Ocampo, a victim of oppression during the Marcos times, shares the same stage as that of Bongbong Marcos, the son of the dictator. It takes a great Leader to do just that.

And of course, Villar's platform of government deserves our support. It is a very clear platform of government that prescribes real solutions to real problems. Compared with Noynoy's platform, Manny Villar's program of government provides effective solutions.

Now, what is just disturbing is the fact that Manny Villar associated himself with known traditional politicians. He needs to resolve that. And he must assure the public that he will not be swayed by their sweet talk and their billion peso offers.

Barring any major hurdles, Manny Villar will be able to eclipse Noynoy in the polls but the question really is--will he be sworn in as president? Will civil society allow Villar to realize his childhood dream to become president of this country?

Manny Villar's Platform: A No-nonsense Social Pact

Satur Ocampo, former Nationalist Democratic Front (NDF) head and Lisa Masa, the recognized women’s rights activist, are running under the Nacionalista Party as guest senatorial candidates. In an interview, Satur said that the reason why they aligned themselves with the Nacionalista, a traditional political party headed by no less than billionaire Manny Villar were for two reasons: first, other parties are not interested in adopting the Makabayan platform of government and only Villar says the party is ready to accept these points as part of the Nacionalista platform.


I secured for myself, a copy of the Nacionalista Party platform and read it. I also have a copy of the platform of the Liberal Party, the main political rival of the Nacionalista in the forthcoming elections. Armed with these two documents, I am trying to put them into a matrix, comparing their points and seeing if these are responsive to the current social needs.


Based on data culled from the National Statistics Coordinating Board (NSCB), the Bangko Sentral’s Consumer Confidence Index and the current AC Nielsen reports, Filipinos’ top five (5) concerns are:


1. Stability of the local economy
2. Job security
3. Increases in bills (electricity, power, water)
4. Increases in gasoline prices
5. Good governance issues (re: graft and corruption)


The Nacionalista Party platform focuses on two main points: the issue of poverty and social injustice. Reading the document, the platform provides concrete solutions to the issue of poverty—develop the rural sector and enhance or strengthen local industries. Their anti-poverty program is the most concrete and the most responsive since it addresses the root causes, and presents not just cosmetic solutions.


For one, the Nacionalista Party wants to create a self-reliant and independent local economy. In order to do just that, the Nacionalista Party intends to improve the conditions in the countrysides by implementing agrarian reform, increase rural productivity and develop and strengthen local industries.


The Nacionalista Party believes in the concept of land-to-the tiller, the main essence of true agrarian reform. The Party also seeks to provide CARP beneficiaries of funds support thru rural finance and also provide technical supports. It seeks to compensate small and medium-sized land owners who were previously not given any by the government.


For the Nacionalista party, development of both the rural and the urban sectors of the economy should go hand-in-hand and results to job generation. While developing the economy, the Nacionalista Party hopes to involve the stakeholders in preserving the national patrimony, by introducing the National Land Use policy and infusing ecologically-sound practices on farm production. Fisherfolks will be involved in conserving marine resources.


Micro-financing, strengthening rural finance infrastructures, safety nets against the onerous effects of trade liberalization, promotion of subsidies and SMEs loans are just some of the support mechanisms propounded by the Nacionalista party. This shows a very close involvement of government in supporting both the rural and urban economies. However, it is curious to know though how the Nacionalista Party would address the budget deficit problem that may arise in the implementation of these programs.


In addressing social injustice, the Nacionalista Party encourages the involvement of all sectors. The platform recognizes the strengthening of human rights, promote involvement of stakeholders in preserving people’s and individual rights and likewise highlight the role of the Youth, women and labor sectors. Social injustice is viewed on two levels: domestic and foreign. In the domestic front, the Nacionalista wants to review onerous contracts entered into by government, prosecute officials who committed graft and corruption, liberalize the social sphere by respect of human rights and shield the people from grave injustices. Transparency in government transactions and the promotion of integrity are some of the solutions being offered by the party.

In the foreign affairs sphere, a review of the Visiting Forces Agreement and some trade pacts entered by the previous dispensation is offered. The Nacionalista Party says that these onerous trade agreements and foreign cooperative ventures should be scrutinized and reviewed.


For me, the Nacionalista Party platform is responsive. It gives no motherhood statements, no broad strokes solutions and no bull-shit phrases and promises. It is not a slogan merely to satiate the reformist tastes nor a program which offers the same old and tired strands of pseudo-nationalist propaganda. It is well-thought out and direct to the point.

Come 2010, a President Estrada, an Estrada as Senate President and an Ejercito as Speaker

There are those who refuse to see what's before them for lack of knowledge or simply want to close their eyes to the truth.

Come 2010, if the people decide, then, we will have a Joseph Estrada as president, his legitimate son, Jinggoy Estrada as Senate President and an illegitimate son, JV Ejercito, as Speaker. Talk about an Estrada restoration, this one is for the Guinness book of World Records.

And we condemn the Ampatuans for being warlords when we face the possibility of just one family dominating our entire country and dictating our very future for six years.

If Manny Villar wins the presidency, then, I see a repeat of the despised Arroyo regime. Imagine a president having his son in Congress and having an ex-Congresswoman as First Lady? What are the chances of his son being elected Speaker of the House while Villar sits as president? Likely, yes.

This is also the case of Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro, who wants to field his mother as Congresswoman of Tarlac, replacing his wife, the lovely Nikki Prieto-Teodoro. A mother and son tandem ruling the government?

How about the case of Noynoy Aquino? Should he wins, he will have a Councilor in Valenzuela as first lady?

Worst if we elect former president Joseph Estrada. Imagine a scenario where Erap sits as president while his son, Jinggoy Estrada serves as Senate President. That is not far-fetched since Jinggoy enjoys top spot as a senator in all surveys. If Jinggoy clinches the no. 1 position as Senator in this elections, we may have to contend with the possibility of an Estrada as Senate President.

If Estrada dies due to old age or disease, and efforts are made to discredit the vice president, then, another Estrada replaces the old one. Cute. :-)

Don't forget that another son, JV Ejercito, is gunning for the Congressional seat of San Juan, while his mother, Guia, is poised to win the mayoral post which JV will vacate come June 2010.

Come 2010, that would surely bring the entire Philippine House down---an Erap for president, a Jinggoy for Senate President and a JV Ejercito for Speaker. If all of them wins, then, we literally have a dynastic family ruling the entire Philippine political system. This is the surest way for us to have our very first Constitutional monarchy---an Estrada one, at that. Wow!

So you think that Erap has the moral authority to demand the Arroyos not to seek elective posts when all of his family are involved in this elections?

Besides, we saw how the Estradas abused their power when they occupied Malacanang. And we all know that Estrada is what, as Ebdane says, "utak pulbura" (meaning a war-freak), then, we can say that Estrada can be likened to an Andal Ampatuan.

Probably yes. Imagine, Ejercitos dominating the political system, armed with guns and their bullies, again.

And this is simply not too different when you ask me about Bangon Pilipinas presidential bet Eddie Villanueva. Villanueva has a son for a Congressman whom reports say will run as a legislator in Bulacan. Another Villanueva sits as mayor in one of the towns in Bulacan too. Should Eddie wins, then, we have a possible repeat of an Arroyo-like regime.

So, who do we choose?

The worst evil is elect an Estrada. The least evil, is, I think, vote for a Noynoy who will simply not allow a repeat of the Kamag-anak Incorporated that dominated his mother's administration. Or, will he really not allow this?

I say go for a JC delos Reyes. Oh, by the way, a JC win would translate into a Gordon? Wala na talaga.

Kay Nicanor Perlas na lang tayo.:-0

Senator Manny Villar magpaka totoo ka at harap ka na sa Senado

Mayroon akong challenge kay Nacionalista Party presidentiable and billionaire Senator Manny "Sipag at Taga" Villar.

Kung ala ka talagang tinatago, pare ko, tungkol diyan sa C-5 road controversy, puwede bang pagbigyan mo kami at humarap ka sa Senate ethics hearing mo? Binabastos mo kami, Manny dahil ibinoto ka namin (ako binoto kita at frat brother ko ang kapatid mo) at may accountability ka sa mga bumoto sa iyo na ipaliwanag ng mabuti ang side mo sa Senado.

Huwag kang magtago sa saya ng BIR, dahil, sa palagay mo, maniniwala kami sa pagdepensa sa iyo ng BIR? Syempre, sa ganyang kalaking anomalya, me sabwatan na sa pagitan ng BIR pati na mga taong sangkot dito.

We're not born yesterday Manny. Hindi ganun kadaling maloko ang taumbayan. Kung sa Las Pinas ay nagagawa mo ang gusto mo, dito, sa larangang sinuungan mo, hindi ganun kadali ito, pare ko.

Pareho tayong taga-Tondo. Laking Tondo din ako. At alam kong alam mo na me batas tayong sinusunod sa Tondo---magpaka totoo ka. At huwag na huwag mong pagnanakawan ang kapitbahay mo.

Huwag mo ring gamitin ang alibi na ang lahat ng ito ay pulitika. Hindi pulitika ang tanungin sa iyo bakit 10 beses mas mataas ang ari-arian mo dun. Hindi rin pulitika ang tanungin ka bakit sa kabila ng pagbabawal ng batas sa mga senador na tulad mo na mag endorso ng mga proyektong may direkta kang pakinabang.

Manny, hindi yan pulitika kundi ethics yan at pagtatanong kung bakit ka lumabag sa saligang-batas. Ibig sabihin ng ethics, Manny, eh, delicadeza.

Pera namin yung napunta pambayad dun. At me karapatan kaming tanungin bakit overpriced ang proyekto mo.

Gumagamit ka na ng impluwensya dyan, Manny. Hindi na tama yan. Humarap ka sa Senado, wag lang sa midya. Kundi, tiyak matatakot kami kung maiboto ka at nandun ka na sa palasyo. At alam mo naman, sa ating mga taga-Tondo, pag takot tayo, iba ang nagagawa natin.

Danger signals for Mar Roxas, Chiz and Villar

In the latest Pulse Asia survey conducted during the period July-August, Mar Roxas placed fifth with 11 percent, 4 percentage points lower than Chiz and about 14 percentage points behind Nacionalista Party's standard bearer Manny Villar. What this suggest is that Roxas' ratings already plateaued and there's no room for Roxas anymore to maneuver to the top. This is the same case with Chiz Escudero, whose ratings continue to hover between 16-19%, while what's surprising is Villar's ratings continue to rise, yet, I believe that statistically, he has already attained his highest ratings. However, if Villar sustains his ratings of 25 to 27%, he may yet be the next president.

This survey also shows that despite the enormous efforts by Mar Roxas to improve his ratings through advertisement, he's not getting the high favorability ratings commensurate with the value that he's paying for those ads. Remember that Mar Roxas and Villar spend almost the same in terms of radio and TV ads. Villar is getting favorable reactions while Roxas does not.

Likewise, Roxas is not getting favorable ratings either from that highly publicized wedding with ABS-CBN broadcaster Korina Sanchez. In fact, his ratings got worst when he announced his engagement with Sanchez. Roxas ratings suffered a 2 percentage point cut despite his very aggressive propaganda campaign.

And don't count former president Joseph Estrada out. Estrada continues to sustain a very comfortable ratings. This is reminiscent of his ratings in 1998, when he registers a very high ratings in the third quarter of 1997 before finally getting the highest ever public approval ratings in the first quarter of 1998. Estrada's ratings validate info I am getting from grassroots organizers that the public is enthusiastically accepting Erap's candidacy if ever.

And look closely at the survey, Mar Roxas registers poorly in the National Capital Region and Mindanao, with just 8 percent and mind you, even in his natural constituency, the ABC class, he registered a mere 9 percent! That sends you a message that even intellectuals and the middle class don't seem to favor him as their president.

Worst, in the Visayas, his natural stronghold, he places third, with 16%---a far cry from the 30% of Villar and the 22% of Noli de Castro. Now, should Chiz runs, they'll be sharing or breaking the oppositionist class, the D socio-economic class, since they share the same 12% percentage points.

Mar Roxas' eight percent ratings in Mindanao validates earlier information that he enjoys little or no support from Muslim communities due to his warlike stance regarding the MOA-AD. I heard highly reliable info from grassroots organizers in Mindanao that they'll ensure that Mar gets zero votes in Mindanao.

Some suggestions for Mar Roxas

1. Please abandon the padyak theme. It's really not working for you.

2. Be different and rise above the rest by highlighting what you did for the poor and the middle class during his term.

3. Be different, otherwise, you'll lose.

On Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro

Despite his commercials and PR efforts, Gilbert Gibo Teodoro registered a poor 0.2percent rating, just 1 percent higher than relative unknown presidential candidate JC Delos Reyes. Imagine this delos Reyes does not even have television ads but he's just a tad lower than Teodoro's ratings.

This is a laughable situation. I think Gibo is just mishandled. He should change tack soon.

Suspicious Timing of Survey Releases

Pulse Asia released its latest survey that shows Senator Manny Villar at the top of the heap. Villar got top spot despite being criticized for getting billions out of a government road project.

Today, the Senate ethics trial continued, with Senator Jamby Madrigal exposing how Villar used his position as legislator to jack up real property prices of his land in Sauyo Las Pinas. Villar, according to Madrigal, sold land at 13,500 pesos per square meter, when property prices were just at 1,300 per square meter around the area. Madrigal postulated that government agencies could have colluded with Villar to make those properties far higher in prices than current market prices.

What is most suspicious, however, is the timing of the release of these survey results. For example, Pulse Asia released the results the same day the Senate hears Villar's ethics case. This is most suspicious, to say the least.

Was there a conscious rider to Pulse Asia and SWS to release their results on the same week as these hearings? Twice this happened already and it seems that these survey agencies are creating the impression that Villar's image is like teflon--indestructible despite successive potshots and negative criticisms.

Pulse Asia and SWS should answer this. Are they providing fodder for Villar's defense? Is there a conscious effort to use these surveys to neutralize the negative effects of the Senate ethics trial.

Velarde's Presidential Candidacy: The Real McCoy

Newspapers today headlined the inauguration of El Shaddai leader's latest project---a P 1 billion peso church in his lot in Paranaque. The church, which is billed as the "biggest place of worship and prayers in Asia" can accommodate 15 to 25,000 worshippers, still not enough to accommodate the weekly 300,000 devotees that usually attend El Shaddai worship services.

Now the shocking part---El Shaddai's leader Bro. Mike Velarde intimated his desire to run for the presidency in 2010. Quite a dream he says since as a kid, he always dreamt of becoming president. Many political observers doubt the sincerity of Velarde, since he knows for a fact that he does not have the numbers to back his campaign.

The dead giveaway was Velarde's statement saying that should he become president, he'll merge the church and the state---an obvious joke. Velarde is no fool, yet he's quite a joker. He knows that that's impossible.

Velarde's pronouncement is obviously a bait meant to increase his waning political stock. Velarde is an astute politician. He knows that when he announces his candidacy, many political leaders would obviously try to negotiate his way out of it.

One such politician is Joseph Estrada who said that he'll talk with Velarde today to convince him to give way. Of course, Velarde will try to appear coy and will try to prolong negotiations, of course in exchange of something.

Everyone knows that Senator Manny Villar already got Velarde's support, way ahead of the others. They teamed up together in that C-5 road controversy. Remember that Velarde's company, Amvel Properties, got a 1 billion peso payment for the right-of-way and the one who masterminded that was no other than Senator Manny Villar.

So, what's the game plan for Velarde? First, that pronouncement was meant as a bait, a lure for other political parties to negotiate terms with him. Second, Velarde's campaign machinery would just be deemed as a "wrecking crew" meant to dilute the opposition ranks. We know that Velarde's constituency is the same as those of Erap's and Velarde's entry into the race would surely affect on-going organizing efforts.

Akalamo farming, yun pala phishing: Villar gives Nokia phones to site recruits

There are limits to what you can do as a consultant for a political client. In my case, I don't have a problem with that simply because I don't accept political accounts. One common thread that governs both corporate and political accounts is one word---decency.

Yep, decency.

For example, do you know that the Akalamo.com site which is being handled by a group named Havoc, has just violated the law on decency? Yep. They're giving away Nokia phones for those who will register in their site and give their "akalamos".

Worst, it is basically a promotional contest meant to increase site traffic yet, there are NO DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) certification. Meaning, it is a contest which violates the law.
Technically, it is still not the formal political campaign period and Villar's lawyers would just shrug it off and say, we violated no provision of the Omnibus Election Code. Villar has not filed his certificate of candidacy and technically, giving Nokia phones is simply NOT pre-election campaigning.

Akalamo is giving Nokia 7100 supernova model for those who will (1) register as members in the site (2) giving away their personal details and avatars and (3) recruiting two more members (read this link). Is that phishing? Yep, modified lang.

What's disturbing is the fact that everybody knows this is the period of grassroots organizing and though this promotions at the AKALAMO site is technically NOT pre-election campaigning and hence, does not fall under the category of VOTE BUYING, still it is also a phishing campaign meant to bolster the ranks of young voters for Villar.

Ano ba naman po, Mr. Senator. We are corrupting our young people. Of course, you'll say its simply not vote buying, pero sir, ganon na din po lumalabas yun. I suggest you re-think your strategy and try to come up with different ways on how to attract supporters the clean way.

Otherwise, nakakatakot isipin na at this point in the game, hindi na kayo malinis maglaro. Pano pa kung maging pangulo na po kayo?



Akalamo me fair game, yun pala hindi. Promoters of the site have lots of explaining to do.