The Red October: Times are ripe for a Revolution

The Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP), one of the country's major social influencers, has just issued a warning against President Noynoy Aquino's plan to implement the Reproductive Health Bill. The church leadership even warned Aquino of ex-communication should he pushes thru with his plan to support the RH bill. 


Let's forego discussions about this issue and just concentrate on the political implications of this issue. This is something being neglected by the Aquino administration.


First, the Church is threatening to launch a civil disobedience campaign. This is the first time over a decade that the entire Church leadership had threatened this kind of political action. 


With this issue creating a split among the populace and the jueteng issue threatening a serious rift among the elite groups, will this result to what some say, a revolution of serious proportions?


Will the prediction of former defense secretary Norberto Gonzales, the promoter of clerico fascism in the Philippines, fulfill itself this coming month? Let us see.


Things are beginning to unravel, the purported assassination plot against Pnoy, the ever widening rift between the Church and the Aquino administration, the rising dissatisfaction among Pnoy's volunteer groups, the internal conflict between and among groups within the palace and the ever increasing dissatisfaction of the public over the foibles committed by this administration.


These are, what some would say, events leading to a revolutionary situation.


If Gonzales again assumes power, then, he surely had surpassed Joma Sison in terms of being the only public intellectual who has successfully steered three revolts in a lifetime. 

October Challenge to the Pnoy Administration

Several uniformed officers in the know says, some military officers are preparing for a showdown. What is it is not defined. The scenario, they say, is several or even one or two months away. They described it as an October beer challenge. I described it as stupidity.

For one, there is no rationality behind these alleged grumblings in the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Those who probably grumble are those feeling that the "glory days are over", or those who have enjoyed the trappings of power before, only to lose it just because their backer has left the building, so to speak.

If you closely analyze things though, there is, however, a pattern that you can discern.

First, Pampanga Congresswoman Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the backer of a particular AFP class, has filed another bill, seeking to amend the Constitution of the Philippines purposely to allow the partition of Mindanao. MIndanao, as you know, is a flashpoint. Several rebel groups have been operating in the area for several decades now, fighting for an independent republic. The former government has acceded and in fact, was on the verge of signing a Memorandum of Agreement with the MILF for the recognition of their lands as ancestral domains. THis MOA-AD could have officially ended the internecine strife.Several groups, including those from the Ilonggo block of former Senator Mar Roxas blocked the MOA-AD signing.

The bill exploits this issue. The bill, as several observers say, is actually charter change. Arroyo is still hell bent in her desire to change the constitution to allow her to ascend the post of Prime Minister.

With the PR-initiated "military grumblings" now slowly transforming itself from an inside page story to headline, it pays to analyze that these grumblings and legal maneuverings are part of a bigger conspiracy to probably topple this administration. The only question is---is the times ripe for a challenge to the prevailing order?

No.

The political capital enjoyed by the present administration is still very much felt by all. There is no legal reason for a coup. First off, the new administration has not erred in most of its decisions. Second, there is no legitimate group within the military establishment credible enough to stand up and say that there is merit to a coup. Lastly, there will be widespread opposition to a coup. The People have spoken and have recognized the legitimacy of this administration.

IF, and I say IF these anti-Pnoy plotters are really hell-bent on what they want to do, and they are really determined to act and move, then, what they are planning to do is something of a naked lust for power. Even if they succeed in this weakest point for this administration, they will not be able to sustain their administration since many will definitely oppose it in a mistaken belief that they only did so out of personal interests, not of the wider and more credible, public interest.

And those who plan to change the charter, has one thing going against them--the widespread support of the people behind the legitimate government. If this government succeeds in its mandate of improving services for the people, then, there is no just cause for a chater change. There is no ideological leg for a regime change to stand on.

By the way, where in hell is former defense secretary Norberto Gonzales?

The meaning of a failed elections

Jose Camano, who migrated to the States after being disbarred by the Supreme Court due to an ethical (moral some would say) issue (extortion case with his partner the present MMDA chairman), says that what the hell are we talking about? The 1987 Constitution, says Camano is clear---there will be no vacancy in the post of the president simply because she is still the Chief Executive until June 30. So, why are sectors and quarters all thinking about filling a "vacancy" when there is none?


Camano is right--Mrs. Arroyo will still be president until June 30. The question that everybody is finding or looking for a solution is simply this--who will be her successor come June 30. 


If, say, this election fail, and God knows I don't want it to fail, how then will we resolve the issue of succession? If the automated elections prolong the count, especially if it conducts a parallel count, and Comelec fails to transmit the results of the elections prior to the opening of Congress, who will then be proclaimed as president? That is the issue, Mr. Camano. 


The concern for the period of May 10 to May 20 is legitimate since Mrs. Arroyo is in the running as Congresswoman of Pampanga. If she is running AND manning the fort as well, how will the results of the elections in Pampanga be as clean and of the highest integrity? Anyway, that's beside the point. Some say that will be the trigger that will surely launch a coup against her. That period, some analysts think, is the period where executive power is at its weakest and most vulnerable. For security analysts, who clearly understand the dynamics of politics, that is the supposed "clink" in the armor of invinsibility of Mrs. Arroyo. 


Let me explain to former Atty. Camano, who is now hiding in the States after that extortion case he committed here in the Philippines, that this period is critical to the survival of democracy in the Philippines for 4 simple reasons:


1. This is the period of counting, the most important leg of the elections. If the results are questionable due to tampering (either automated or manual), that will trigger massive public reaction, even outrage. That is a security issue.


2. If, during the period of counting, a massive rally erupts and certain sectors question the preliminary results of the count, that is also a potential, if not, a serious security issue. 


3. One of the possible scenarios being discussed wildly in certain rounds is the possibility of Mrs. Arroyo and her gang activating her "close associates" in the military for a possible takeover of government. This is where I take the PMA Class 1978 to task---they told me that they will not Mrs. Arroyo to be the "caretaker" of the government, while waiting for the final results. IT will be better, says one of the members of PMA Class 1978, to just allow her to just "fade away" to exile or retirement. Meaning, they will not even allow her to even serve as Congresswoman should she win this coming elections. 


4. This is when the supposed "vacuum" exists, when there is a failure to proclaim a winner. Remember that the elections is not just about voting and counting the results, no. The conclusion of any elections is the proclamation of the winner. If this elections will not lead to a favorable interpretation of the results from all groups, then, that will justify a takeover. 


All sectors whom I talked with says that this elections is the final one. This is the last straw, so to speak. This is the last democratic option left available before anyone decides to move against Gloria. If this election still fails to proclaim a legitimate successor, then, anything is entirely possible. 


So, Mr. Camano, this is not as simple as one accepting a client then going to the other side to accept an offer for a huge sum of money. No Joe, this cannot be remedied by extortion. And this is even not interpreting any Constitutional provision which is entirely silent on the matter. This is about anticipating possible dire consequences, which, unfortunately, your mind cannot grasp. This is not about law. This is about power, and the struggle of groups in our society. 

Oplan C.U.R.E.

Mrs. Arroyo has called for an emergency security meeting with her cabinet to discuss the elections. Executive secretary Leandro Mendoza said, the administration is fully committed to ensuring the highest preparations for a clean elections. However, some quarters are not convinced. 

A source, who refused to be named, confirmed that Defense secretary Norberto Gonzales is currently going the rounds, meeting with battalion commanders of the AFP shortly after PMA Class 1977 meeting with Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino. The meeting, says a source, was nothing official nor even suspicious. It was not even a "gripe session." (Curiously, PMA Class 1977 was purportedly the class behind Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar. Did they move out of NP and into the loving arms of the LP?)

Meanwhile, another source says that the administration is planning the establishment of a junta before May 30, the day when Congress supposedly opens its session. This junta, says the source is to be a countermeasure against a possible "people power" to be instigated by certain quarters close to Liberal party bet Noynoy Aquino. 

The question is---will PMA class 1978 participate in this junta even after one of them assured me that they are all constitutionalists and will just abide with the duly-constituted civilian authority whoever that may be?

Will PMA Class 1978 stay in the sidelines and just let these things " move as naturally and as normally as possible" or will they be the actors in this political drama?

That's probably why former president Fidel Valdes Ramos and his gang are slowly appearing again before the media, propping themselves up again and just recently, held a dinner to get international support for their plan.

For one, if a group OTHER THAN the group of Norberto Gonzales hatch and execute a coup, that will surely be welcome development for the people. 

A junta by this administration will be strongly opposed by the People. All sectors will unite and will fight this junta, including this writer. 

Gonzales will push for Martial Law: Oplan Alpha in full gear

Defense secretary Norberto Gonzales, Mrs. Arroyo's Rasputin, was conspicuously absent last night at the Joint Session of Congress. Ermita said Gonzales was on a very important mission to Singapore.

A check with a source says that Gonzales met with three generals, an Ateneo professor, two representatives of businessmen, a member of the clergy, three former government officials and at least four civil society leaders in a hotel along Orchard Road (near Bugis junction) in Singapore.

Where did these groups met (they are still meeting)? Raffles Hotel lobby.

The topic? Martial law in the Philippines come December or January of 2010.

The critical issue? How to shore up support for such a declaration.

The problem? How to neutralize negative views from the US. The US, thru the Department of State, has issued a negative reaction on Proclamation 1959. Gonzales fears that the US will support oppositionist groups in the event of a declaration of martial law.

Gonzales is ready to implement his Machievellian plan. And surely, and I believe it will be Orwellian in the end game.

New Society, part II: What's wrong with a transition government?

Manolo Quezon III had a very interesting take on concepts and ideas being entertained by certain groups to solve a problem like Gloria. His column today talks about talks between Arroyo's intel chief, Bert Gonzales and Chief Justice Reynato Puno. Sources from the opposition, whom Manolo did not mention, say that Puno and BertGon are in the "thick of things", talking about the possibility of a transition government, austensibly along the lines of Macoy's New Society. And since these men are either beneficiaries or victims of that New Society, there is now, what Manolo believes to be common ground among them.

Actually, the idea of a council-type of government has been there since 1989. During the Cory administration, a group of idealistic military officers, along with several civilians, formed this concept to address the main issue that hinders the full democratization of governance---the issue of power.

Power, under the present Constitution, is lodged solely in the Executive. Yes, there is what we call "balancing acts" or three branches of government enjoying "equal powers"; but in reality, most of the power is being exercised by the Executive.

The problem with a very powerful Executive is in only applies to unitary governments established in one contiguous area. Power is exercised only thru effective implementation. If you have several major islands and your communication infrastructure is still underdeveloped, you definitely have a problem of fully implementing good policies. Or if your infrastructure is at best, only responsive to certain areas of your territory and the rest is left to the discretion of local executives who do not know any better, then, obviously, governance fails each and every time.

Hence, devolution is the answer. Yet, if the power of the purse still resides on the Executive, then, expect that nothing will ever change because local governments function only when financially equipped. Giving local governments the power of the purse and being responsible for the overall administration of their territories require charter change. And since major economic and political powers here disdain that idea because that would obviously affect the status quo, no substantial change would ever occur. In such a situation, drastic measures ought to be implemented as soon as possible before the entire system collapses due to its inability to give adequate social services.

The best way to save the system from total collapse is entertain the idea of a surgical operation. Seize political power and establish a Council-type of government that would oversee the transition from partially free to full democracy is the best solution. Now, democrats would probably say, that's un-democratic. Probably, even America would issue a public condemnation.

But, if you look closely, there was a point in American history that they resorted to such similar measures. When a country faces the total deterioration of its governmental and political institutions, drastic measures ought to be done immediately either on the short or long-term. Honestly, there's nothing wrong with the concept of New Society. In Marcos time, the problem was Macoy used that only as a propaganda platform. He needed to justify his militarist action and mouthing terms as "pagbabago" or "Bagong Lipunan" gave him political legitimacy.

In our case, pushing for a New Society is the order of the day. Change is a necessity. Now, some people say, why entrust to a few people the fate of our country? I ask them---why entrust it to those now in power when we already know that they're big-time thieves and liars? We've always been under the strong spell of a few elites. And even with another election, that political reality would never, ever, change. For us to really change the present power structure, we need an event that would justify a change in that structure. We need new elites that would serve the people first before anything else.

I think a sizeable number of the populace would agree on a transition government provided that no other member of the Arroyo regime is there. Should this indeed happen, let the major players do it properly. They must not cut corners. For as long as they:

1. Jail Mrs. Arroyo and her husband---there must never be a compromise on this. Mrs. Arroyo has to go.
2. Imprison others who stole billions from the public coffers. Arrest Joc-Joc Bolante and the rest of these big-time operators.
3. Allow members of people's organizations, academe and civil society to take part in national policy-making
4. Enforce the laws.
5. Make peace with revolutionary groups.

...then I see no point of strongly fighting these people. In fact, they need our support. Now, should they fool us, then, they all know what happens to governments that fool the people--they are shot on sight.

Crackdown on cha-cha

National security adviser Norberto Gonzales and ISAFP Chief Gen. Rey Prestoza and even AFP spokesperson, Lt. Col. Romeo Brawner Jr. were all one in saying that the military is not the ones behind the spate of bombings that happened in Metro Manila this week. They all say there's a destabilization plot, allegedly being committed by two groups and funded by an opposition politician. While PNP chief Jesus Versoza denied that there is a destabilization plot on-going.

Which is which? Who to believe? The chief of the PNP saying there's no destab, or these three gentlemen?

To help you, my dear readers and friends judge who to believe, let's go back to the very words Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo told reporters last June 21.

During her working visit in Japan, Mrs. Arroyo said that she's not out to scrap the elections. What she's after, Mrs. Arroyo said, is to reform the political system through constitutional amendments. She categorically stated her desire for charter change through "political and economic reforms". “What I have always said, and it was part of my campaign platform in 2004, is that the political system needs to be reformed,” the President told reporters covering her working visit in Japan.

Mrs. Arroyo said the political and economic reforms she wished to implement would entirely depend on the efforts of her allies and “ultimately on the people of the Philippines.”

Okey, two things---charter change is on and the elections. Its clear that Mrs. Arroyo will push ahead with amending the constitution prior to the elections, so expect the fight against cha-cha to really be messy and protracted, since it just spewed out of Mrs. Arroyo's mouth that she's routing not just for economic reform (as what Speaker Nograles only wants) but "political reforms" as well. Meaning, Mrs. Arroyo is really gunning for a shift to parliamentary, a desperate move, says her detractors, to prolong her stay in power.

So, come July 27, allies of the President will not just change economic provisions of the 1987 Constitution--they will also try to change political provisions--a clear violation of the "gentleman's agreement" made by administration allies in the Lower House.

Okey. So the elections are on. What kind? Partial automation, the palace said. So, what would happen is Comelec will have a joint venture (or whatever that arrangement is) with Smartmatic only to partially automate the elections. But, why is the palace and Comelec insiders preparing for partial instead of full elections?

Because they are anticipating that the elections will fail anyway. Why do I say that?

Note the statement made by Norberto Gonzales regarding a "revolutionary government" setup with Mrs. Arroyo as head. These ideologues and hawks within the palace are deliberately sabotaging the elections to create the necessary scenarios for justifying an action like this.

Why float an idea if these palace men have'nt thought about it and considered it within the confines of Malacanang?

That said, going back to the original question---who to believe? I believe Verzosa when he says that there's no destabilization because he knows very well that its government who's doing those scare tactics and government troops are no destabilizers. Why do it in the first place?

To precipitate a crackdown of anti cha-cha group leaders, to instill fear in them enroute to July 27. Its not martial law that this government intends to achieve ultimately, although its a sweeter, if we are to believe what Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita said previously, but merely to derail the organizing efforts being undertaken by anti charter change agents.