Where would the NPC and the Nacionalista party put their political bets

The Liberal party has its bet, Mar Roxas, possibly running with Grace Poe. UNA, which is the party formed by merging former president Joseph Estrada's Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) and Vice president Jejomar Binay's PDP-Laban is fielding Binay as their own. Lakas is financing Rudy Duterte's trial balloon but nothing is definite yet.

Now, there are two main parties left which are the Nationalist Party controlled by former senator Manny Villar and the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) of Danding Cojuangco. The NP has three potential candidates, namely Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Bongbong Marcos and Antonio Trillianes IV. While there's no news coming from the NPC ranks, which formerly tried and failed to field Senator Chiz Escudero.

It is important to know where these parties will go or what direction will they take in the coming months since they are considered serious parties as well with their vaulted mass networks. NP is the second biggest political party yet we haven't heard from them.

Several months ago, talks that Senator Manny Villar was trying to revive his presidential interests went south when his wife, Senator Cynthia Villar herself doused cold water to the proposal. If you study what's happening very closely, it is actually a good time for Villar to revive his presidential ambitions, for several reasons.

1. Villar is perceived by the business community as a safe candidate. He belongs to the community and therefore understands what the business community needs.

2. There is no charge of corruption against Villar.

3. There is no formidable name among those being chosen strong enough to counter Vice president Jejomar Binay.

What is entirely possible is a Villar vs. Binay fight which is like a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao one.

Or, the Nationalista party can very well coalesce with the Liberal Party and secure the senatorial lineup as well as the second spot if Grace Poe decides to join the Nationalista.

In that setup, obviously the LP will gain more because their bet is weak. The only question really is--would it be enough to prop up the sagging popularity of Roxas? I don't think so.

If the Nationalista decides to put their trusts behind Binay's camp, then, the Vice president wins, hands down. The thing is two Nacionalistas, namely Cayetano and Trillianes were responsible for that smear campaign against the Vice president and this puts a merger in a very tight spot.

Of course, that will only happen if these two nincompoops bolt the party and join their principals at the Liberal party.

Possible deserters from the NP side are Cayetano and Trillianes who are expected to join the Liberals. If this happens, then they will be cheering in the sidelines with Grace Poe acting as Mar Roxas' John the Baptist. Will they sacrifice their own promising careers and reputations just to make Roxas' win? Well, this question is surely a multi-million enigma.

Now, how about Lakas?

Surely, Lakas will not field their own candidate because doing so would further decimate their ranks and eventually lead to their irrelevance. They would surely place their bets to the winning or probable winner. I bet my bottom dollar they would go to Binay.

So there.

Let's see what the Nationalist party would do in the next few weeks. Will they field their own or will they just coalesce but to whom or which party?

What now, Manny Villar and Prof. Prospero De Vera?

Professor Prospero De Vera of the University of the Philippines, a self-proclaimed "political analyst" and issues adviser of Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar has just shot himself in the mouth. Now I know why Villar stands to lose this elections--he has in his campaign team someone who claims to know the dynamics of Philippine politics yet debased himself by claiming that the Iglesia Ni Cristo (INC) is slated to support the candidacy of his boss.

De Vera even lied before Ted Failon and Tina Monsod-Palma that he knows something these distinguished journalists do not know. Speaking before the Filipino public, De Vera claims to know the "inner workings" of the INC leadership, even stating that he reportedly saw three surveys conducted by the INC which puts his boss on top of the heap. The professor was extremely confident that his boss has the INC endorsement  "in the bag" already.Pooh.

What De Vera does not know, and being an issues adviser and a "political analyst" HE SHOULD KNOW---the INC leadership hates premature announcements. If De Vera is really worth his salt, he should not have lied and claimed that he knows who the INC will endorse. Obviously, De Vera does not know what he was talking about and was even clueless on INC decision-making. When De Vera agreed to those interviews, he did not know that he was being trapped. :-)

Today, the INC finished De Vera off--they publicly announced support to the rival of his boss, Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino and his tandem, Mar Roxas. If I'm De Vera, I'll do an Ostrich and bury my head under the sand.

Villar just wasted thousands of pesos paying a supposed "issues adviser" who simply does not know anything about Philippine politics and its dynamics.

(To those who trust De Vera's advices--be forewarned. You could be next to lose your shirt and this election. :0)

Villar should fire both his issues adviser and his media handlers simply for ineffectiveness and utter stupidity.

Now, De Vera and Villar's publicists have all put their boss in a very tight situation. Villar is now in the quandary. He is now on the verge of losing his businesses, what with this impending poll defeat.

Look at Villar's bleak future...

Risa Hontiveros has just filed a graft case against Manny Villar before the Ombusman. This case will definitely be pursued by the new Aquino administration for sure. Villar faces a very bleak and black future once the Liberals win. Maybe, Villar will even be the first one prosecuted for plunder and graft and corruption.

The only thing that will save Villar is simply accept defeat and support Aquino. Maybe he can hammer out a deal. Yet, knowing Aquino and the Liberals, they will surely and simply reject any overtures from the Villar camp.

Because of this elections, Villar earned the ire of big-time enemies and that includes not just the Aquinos but the Estradas and several others.

Villar should now implement his exit strategy, but one advice--don't ask De Vera what to do next. He might simply ask you to release fraudulent and fake documents to save face.

Villar should simply do what the former Thai Prime Minister did--go on exile. Or, maybe accompany Arroyo in her and her husband's cozy chalet in Portugal.

Villar broke the highest law like the Arroyos

Manny Villar sees nothing wrong when he presented himself before the PSE board and lobbied for Vistaland. Villar said he broke no law.

The Nacionalista party standard bearer also defended himself by saying that Senators like him are not required to divest their interests in their companies--the law requires that they just have to divulge it.

I am totally disappointed with Villar---he simply does not get it. The issue is not law--its delicadeza.

Villar has committed the very sin, in fact, the original sin of this administration---the Arroyos are fond of telling the people they broke no law while their very act smacks of immorality, nay, gruesome unethical behavior.

Yes, Senators are not supposed to divest, only divulge their interests in their numerous companies. And yes, probably, he broke no law since the PSE, as correctly defended by Vista Land's lawyer Nalen Galang, is a private institution.

Yet, what Villar just did was actually prove the very fears of the people and why most will not vote for him---he has the tendency to use his position to benefit his numerous companies.

This act of Villar sends a very chilling message to big business---what will prevent Villar from appearing once again before the PSE or any business group and ask for concessions? If we elect Villar as president, what will then prevent him from breathing down hard against his rivals in the real estate business? Nothing, you say. That's precisely it.

When his companies bought land with liens or disputes attached to it and allegedly faked those titles, what will then prevent Villar from similarly doing the same things, and in a grandier fashion, as our president? Nothing, you say. Fact is, Villar will even be more fierce.

Even if the law does not bar Villar as a Senator from appearing before any business group, it is incumbent upon Villar, if he's really an honest, sincere and a good man, not to do things which are unethical.

Galang said when Villar appeared before the PSE, he was doing so not as Senate president but as majority stockholder of Vista Land. Crap.

Do you think Vivien Yuchengco or PSE board chairman Lim welcomed Villar as "Citizen Villar" not as "Senate president Villar" when he appeared before them? Surely Galang is not as stupid as many people think she is. That's a very weak alibi, weaker than ARMM governor Zaldy Ampatuan's alibi.

Laws are supposed to reflect our concept of morality but if there is no law that exists that bars someone from acting or doing things, then, the only recourse for someone if the law is silent is simply exercising his own moral conscience.

That appearance before the PSE is a moral judgment, not a legal one.

Hence, it's totally abhorrent for a person with a higher social standing like Villar, indeed, expected of him, to exercise the right moral judgment every single time he's faced with acts which the laws are silent.

Is Villar parroting what Arroyo said when she was asked about her call to the Comelec commissioners? She admitted doing the call but defended herself by saying that there is no law that bars her from doing so. Yes, the laws are silent. But its silence does not mean that you or anyone is entitled to do what many think as immoral or unethical.

When Arroyo defended herself by saying that there is no law that bars her from fraternizing or socializing with ZTE-NBN officials at the height of an ongoing bidding for the contract, does it mean that Arroyo broke no law when she and her husband went to Shenzhen to golf with the ZTE officials? Yes, the Arroyos broke no law except the highest law which the people expected them to follow and that is, the moral law.

Villar is hiding behind the technicalities of the law. What he fails to say is simply, he lacks the moral acuity expected of leaders like him. And that's the danger. If we elect Villar, we are electing an Arroyo clone.

Gilbert Remulla visits Andal Ampatuan Senior to get endorsement

Though Cynthia Villar denies ever visiting Andal Ampatuan Senior to get his so-called "blessing" for her husband Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar, a member of Villar's party was confirmed to have visited the warlord of Maguindanao.


And he is no other than Gilbert Remulla, the one with the infomercial lambasting trapos and encouraging us to vote for New Politics. To think that Remulla lied in his infomercial for reportedly telling us not to vote for trapos when he, himself, wanted to get the blessing of not just a trapo, but a warlord.


Remulla visited Andal senior for half an hour to get himself listed in the ones to be endorsed by one of the alleged masterminds behind the gruesome Maguindanao massacre. Here is the report of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, today, of Remulla's visit:

Remulla visited Andal Sr.

But another military officer, who asked not to be named for lack of authority to speak on the matter, said NP senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla visited Andal Sr. a month ago.

“He was here for less than an hour,” the military officer said.

The officer said several Maguindanao town mayors also visited Andal Sr. to discuss the presidential, vice presidential and senatorial candidates they would campaign for in their respective towns.

“They (mayors) consulted the old man,” the source said.

Villar, Roxas, Bongbong

“I saw their line-up—Villar for president, Mar Roxas for vice president and their senatorial candidates included Jinggoy Estrada, Ramon Revilla, Gilbert Remulla, Bongbong Marcos and Miriam Defensor-Santiago,” the source said.

Cynthia was indeed in Davao on April 9. She met with Quiboloy.

She arrived in the morning on a commercial flight. Immediately upon arrival at the Davao International Airport, she boarded a helicopter and went to North Cotabato with Kidapawan City mayoral candidate Francis Palmones.

At around 1 p.m., she returned to Davao City and met with Quiboloy. She took the 4:50 p.m. flight back to Manila on that same day.

So much for a lying senatorial bet. If Remulla lied today, he will definitely lie tomorrow.

Oplan C.U.R.E.

Mrs. Arroyo has called for an emergency security meeting with her cabinet to discuss the elections. Executive secretary Leandro Mendoza said, the administration is fully committed to ensuring the highest preparations for a clean elections. However, some quarters are not convinced. 

A source, who refused to be named, confirmed that Defense secretary Norberto Gonzales is currently going the rounds, meeting with battalion commanders of the AFP shortly after PMA Class 1977 meeting with Liberal party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino. The meeting, says a source, was nothing official nor even suspicious. It was not even a "gripe session." (Curiously, PMA Class 1977 was purportedly the class behind Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar. Did they move out of NP and into the loving arms of the LP?)

Meanwhile, another source says that the administration is planning the establishment of a junta before May 30, the day when Congress supposedly opens its session. This junta, says the source is to be a countermeasure against a possible "people power" to be instigated by certain quarters close to Liberal party bet Noynoy Aquino. 

The question is---will PMA class 1978 participate in this junta even after one of them assured me that they are all constitutionalists and will just abide with the duly-constituted civilian authority whoever that may be?

Will PMA Class 1978 stay in the sidelines and just let these things " move as naturally and as normally as possible" or will they be the actors in this political drama?

That's probably why former president Fidel Valdes Ramos and his gang are slowly appearing again before the media, propping themselves up again and just recently, held a dinner to get international support for their plan.

For one, if a group OTHER THAN the group of Norberto Gonzales hatch and execute a coup, that will surely be welcome development for the people. 

A junta by this administration will be strongly opposed by the People. All sectors will unite and will fight this junta, including this writer. 

Why Vote for Manny Villar?

A self-made man. An iconoclast in the business world. A great achiever. A visionary. This is how I and many others describe Manny Villar. The only question that I want others to answer is this—Villar is all what people expect him except a revolutionary. And our times call for a revolutionist as our leader.

Villar, in spite of his bravura, is not fit to be president, simply because during his terms as Senate president and Speaker of the House, he was not instrumental in legislating laws that improved our lives.  

Many people who are rooting for Nacionalista party standard bearer Manny Villar believe that he fits the job quite perfectly. Villar, they say, did many things. He builds low cost houses. He passed some legislation. He was formerly a speaker and Senate president. He’s ripe for the picking.

This is probably true. There is one question that I wanted everyone to answer—when Villar was speaker, was that a time when we all said “good job”? Was he remarkable as a Senate president too?

No. When Villar was speaker that was the time when he betrayed his closest friend, Joseph Estrada. Was there any landmark legislation during Villar’s time? None. We do not remember anything extraordinary when Villar was speaker of the Lower House.

How about when he was Senate president? None. Do we remember anything so significant and so earth-shaking in fact about his term? None. Not one single thing.  Fact is it was during his time that these graft charges filed against the Arroyos went to naught. 

And remember that C-5 controversy? He was there when the road was diverted. 

We all saw what happened in our country when Villar was speaker and when he was Senate president. There was no landmark legislation, nothing that changed our lives. Villar, as they say, was never even there.

Villar was out there, campaigning, solidifying his mass bases and preparing for the presidential campaign. He did not use his position as Speaker to implement laws that would have improved the lives of the poor. When he was Senate president, there were no changes made even in the way the Senate operates. Villar was just there for the position.

So, do we expect him to achieve anything better or anything revolutionary if elected as president? I doubt it. The Filipino People gave him all the chances to make the grade, but he failed—twice. How then will we be assured that he will do good as our president?

How then will Villar be able to effect substantial changes in the lives of the poor, when while he was boss of the Lower House and eventually, president of the Senate, Villar did nothing or did not even lift a finger or even found it upon himself to make laws that will improve the lives of the poor. Review the laws he was able to pass, and there was no single piece of legislation on improving the economic condition of the poorest Filipinos.

How then will Villar even say that he will end poverty when God and the electorate already gave him ample time to make his mark as an anti-poor crusader yet he failed? Are we so generous that we will give this man a second or third chance to again fail and fail miserably? As one of my friends said, if you want change, don’t do the same thing over and over again. Because if you do, you’ll get the same dismal result.

If you asked me, the only possible result is simply under a Manny Villar administration, things will be totally different. We will probably see one Villar corporation using a fake title as bank collateral. Villar did it when he was a member of the Lower house when his bank, Capitol Development Bank, used an alleged fake title to secure a 1.6 billion loan from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Villar would probably defend himself by saying that he already divested all his business interests in favor of his children. That’s crap. Everyone knows in Vistaland that Manny Villar still calls the shots there. That is the same case in Camella Homes and other businesses of the Villars.

How then will Villar be able to recover the billions of pesos he spent during the campaign? Don’t tell me that we all were taken a joy ride by the Villars. Three billion pesos is nothing to sneeze at. Don’t even cajole me and say that Camille Villar will be able to recoup 3 billion pesos after the elections, without even dipping her fingers in any government-related project?

Let me end this by taking a jibe off the latest informecial of Villar and Loren. These candidates are asking us to vote for those with skills and experience already in governance. 


How can we even do what they’re asking when those with skills and experience like them did not even do good when we gave them the chance to lead us? Loren has been in public service for decades already; same case with Villar. Can you possibly and truthfully say straight to my face that your life improved because of them?

Atty. Alex `Pinoy' Lacson

I have a confession to make--if not for this guy, I would have probably died already. Yes. I owe my life to him---Atty. Alex `Pinoy' Lacson.


I don't agree with the latest infomercial of Manny Villar with Loren Legarda. The commercial discourages us to vote for new faces, new blood. 


I truly believe that if we want change, then, we must change our set of leaders. It is time for us to do this. This elections is our chance. Let us not elect traditional politicians please. These politicians had their chance, and for decades, nothing had happened to us.


Time for a change. Time for new Pinoys with new ideas for us to improve our lives.



http://www.youtube.com/v/Kht759r0SEE&hl=en_US&fs=1&

Even Detained General Danny Lim convinced of NP involvement in fake Noynoy psych record

Let me publish here the complete Press statement of Brigadier General Danny Lim on the fake psych report issue initiated by the Nacionalista Party.

Gen. Lim to Villar: Apologize for fake psychiatric report

Rebel general says NP’s smear campaign is unwarranted, asks Villar to do a Manny Pangilinan

“Apologize.”

This is the simple unsolicited advice given by Brigadier General Danilo “Danny” Lim to Nacionalista Party standard bearer Manuel “Manny” Villar on the fake psychiatric report which claimed that Liberal party presidential bet Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III was clinically depressed and smoked marijuana.

In a statement released on Monday, the detained general said a simple apology from Villar could give immediate closure to this issue. He urged the NP standard-bearer to replicate the humility of another “Manny”, who he said, “took the responsibility of owing up to his indiscretion.”

“I urge Senator Villar to do a Manny Pangilinan,” Lim said. “A true national leader is capable of acknowledging when he is at fault, whether he or his people caused the transgression. As such, I ask, can Villar do that? Can he swallow his pride and admit wrongdoing?  

Lim said the mere fact that institutions such as ABS-CBN and Ateneo De Manila University already confirmed that the alleged psychiatric analysis of Aquino was fake and was sourced from the NP are enough reasons for Villar to seek apology and owe responsibility.

“Instead of cashing in on this propped up controversy which is only wasting our time and hurting many people, Villar should be responsible enough to order his people to stop from further escalating the issue,” Lim said.

Lim is reacting to the Villar camp’s statement on Sunday challenging Aquino to address the issues contained in the fake psychiatric report.

“It flies in the face of logic. To begin with, the document is a forgery. So how could somebody respond to such a report without making a fool of himself? Naturally, Noynoy will not dignify this,” Lim said.

Lim who is also running for senator in the May polls appealed for sobriety. He said instead of engaging in mudslinging, candidates especially those seeking the presidency should engage in a passionate and communicative “platform brawl.”

“As a substitute for mudslinging and empty bravado, I strongly suggest we focus our energies in elevating the level of the electoral discourse. Let’s talk about real issues, concrete platforms and policy proposals,” Lim asserted.

The bemedalled soldier said candidates resorting heavily to black propaganda and smear campaigns are those who are incapable of firm reasoning and democratic persuasion. He said the Filipino voters deserve “better exchanges from better candidates.”

“Let’s prove to the voting public we are deserving of their votes. Let’s be the candidates they want us to be,” Lim said.

Lim also challenged all presidential candidates to make public their plan on how to restore good democratic governance after Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s nine-year misrule. He particularly issued the challenge to Villar who recently was bombarded with accusations that he is Arroyo’s secret candidate.

“I suggest Villar put more energy in disproving this accusation instead of the fake Aquino psychiatric report. The VillArroyo tag will not go way by simply dismissing it. The only way to repudiate it is for the NP presidential bet to set the record straight on how he will make Arroyo accountable for her crimes against the people. Again I ask, is Villar up to it?” Lim ended. 

Villar loses ground battle to Erap

The latest SWS survey just came out. Noynoy Aquino of the Liberal Party is still ahead of Nacionalista standard bearer Manny Villar despite being outclassed in the ads and air war. Aquino's lead is widening, while Villar's numbers are on the downside, probably affected by the latest campaigns by former president Joseph Estrada who continues to garner percentage points. Estrada is now third, narrowing the gap between him and Villar's. Villar's ranking fell by six points while Estrada gained four percentage points, an indication that Villar is the one losing territories with the renewed Estrada campaign.

Like what I wrote here previously, Estrada's campaign is hurting and will hurt Villar's in the coming weeks. Estrada is regaining his lost territories which were "hijacked" by the Nacionalista. Now, will it help that Villar is gaining allies from the administration party? Will this improve his standing notwithstanding? Let's just see in the next survey because these April surveys will show if really local executive support impacts on the way people perceive national candidates.

And it seems that the trend is following a very distinct pattern:

While Estrada regains his old territories hijacked by the Nacionalista, Villar loses considerable areas of support. However, while some areas covered by Estrada went back to him, most areas shift to Noynoy. Hence, the more Estrada campaigns, the more Noynoy benefits and Villar suffers. If this trend continues, Villar will be at the losing end of the game. In the end game however, it will be a very close fight among Noynoy Aquino, Villar and Estrada. The likelihood of a candidate gaining just 5-7% lead over his closest rival exists.

The ABC class is a revelation---Villar lost 16 percentage points which Aquino actually benefitted by gaining 15%. This means that the ABC class has now shifted their loyalties. It is in this class where support for Villar is weakening.

And what is highly significant is the fact that Estrada is gaining NEW territories, a fact which must not escape notice from the Liberal party. Aquino's base of support seemed to be at a standstill--between 35% to 40%--good, but not entirely. It just shows that Aquino's support base is not eating up those of Villar's and even of Estrada's.

There is about 5-6 million people who remains undecided. Critical for Aquino, Villar and Estrada to gain a slice of this huge number. Whoever exploits this will gain a slight advantage in the end. Villar lost considerable support in the "D" Class, about six percentage points, which benefitted Estrada who gained four and Richard Gordon who got two percentage points. In the "E" class, Villar lost four percentage points, while Aquino and Eddie Villanueva got two percentage points each, an indication that the masses are shifting their loyalties.

The wrath of the Masses against the C-5 road scam

Senator Manny Villar's monumental drop in the surveys shows the wrath of the ABC-D classes. Villar lost a considerable number of Filipinos belonging to the socio-economic ABC and D classes due to the C-5 road controversy. People are now realising that Villar is corrupt. More than the 40 plus percent from the ABC classes who went to Noynoy, and a considerable drop in the D classes show the Masses' contempt of Villar regarding the C-5 road scam. Villar's inability to explain what really happened and his evident contempt of the Senate boomeranged against him.

Likewise, his drop also reflected the successful re-claiming of areas considered as traditional Erap bailiwicks by an invigorated Estrada campaign machinery.

The Nacionalista Party released a statement saying that they are not entirely concerned and that Villar can still regain it. I sincerely doubt it. I have friends in the Nacionalista party and I must laud their sectoral efforts. However, areas which were traditionally Erap are now being tapped and invigorated. It seems that Erap is on the roll. 

Fact is, the soonest Erap regain these areas, the more Villar will lose this game. And the more that Noynoy Aquino's team hammer their anti-corruption slant in their infomercials, the more that Villar will lose ground.

Villar has released his "Laging mahirap" commercials again, but without the pizzaz. The reception is quite lukewarm. And this is the problem with TV ads. If you already saturated the airwaves, people will get tired and instead of positive reactions, you'll get negative feedback.

Villar needs a change of tack fast and must realise that his so-called poverty story is not effective anymore. He needs a new gimmick. Whatever it is, it should probably address the C-5 road scam.

The question really is---will he be able to convince us that he did not dip his hands in the gravy pot with C-5 when overwhelming evidence show otherwise?

Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part I

The man who will spearhead the mass movement in May 2010 will become Arroyo's successor. And this man will be among those who will run in the presidential post, the man whom everyone thinks will win but will be cheated even in an automated elections setup.

Who is this man? Let us analyze.

For now, Noynoy Aquino remains the top contender for the presidency. He sustains a commanding lead over his opponents in the survey. What is damaging him at this point are Word-of-Mouth statements which say that his numbers are diminishing or decreasing. Obviously, any one who knows his statistics that when a candidate's numbers are high in the early stages of the campaign, it would "normalize" only by March or April. In Noynoy's case, surely, his numbers will remain high but when the actual start of the campaign begins by February, that will surely change.

Noynoy's problem is easier than, say, Villar's or Estrada's, since the Liberal Party's main worry is just how to sustain Noynoy's trust ratings. Conversion is another problem that is only solvable thru a wide and expansive grassroots machinery.

Though it is easier for Noynoy, in the final stretch, he has to have a big resource base to use in the actual voting and counting phases of the elections. Noynoy has to protect his votes, otherwise, he will lose. In order to do just that, the Liberal party must manage an entire virtual army of volunteers who will risk their lives just to monitor the developments on the ground. Management means billions, and that's an undeniable fact of political life.

Now, this is what bugs the Liberals since, at this point, they do not have the full support of the traditional political financiers, since some of these funders are obviously in other camps, especially in the Nacionalista party.

This is what Noynoy's Liberals and other contenders fear---the time when the Nacionalista Party unleashes their vaunted resources. The Nacionalista, as you know, is perceived to be the "strongest party" with the "biggest and strongest network", because of Senator Manny Villar.

Villar, as you know, is determined to win. He has charted his political career even way back when he ran as Congressman of Las Pinas. He planned this to happen. Villar has his billions and a wide network of supporters, coming from his real estate companies. Villar can actually spend five billion pesos and it will not even affect him in the short-run (long-time yung effects yan).

If Villar gives 1 billion pesos to Mindanao (that is the rumour), that is a game changer. If Villar allots 1.5 billion pesos to Luzon and 1.2 billion pesos in the Visayas and probably half a billion pesos worth of advertising and propaganda materials, he might, just might, clinch it.

The only stumbling block for Villar's ascendancy to the highest post is simply a public uprising.

Are you asking what will happen to Joseph Estrada's PMP and UNO? Their situation is worse than the Liberals since (1) their ranks have been decimated with defections and (2) they don't have the entire Tsinoy community financial support. There are even talks that Estrada might, just might, throw in the towel prior to the elections.

How about Gibo Teodoro's campaign? What will happen to him?

Gibo will only get as far as 14% or 16% of the votes, not enough for a win. Despite the much-publicized strength of the Lakas-KAMPI CMD party, it would take Gibo, more than 5 billion pesos to win, which, under current circumstances, the administration will be hard-pressed to get.

Remember that the Arroyo administration is now operating under a re-enacted budget; meaning, Arroyo will only get or expect to get the same amount of monies from the budget to support Gibo.

Noynoy's Social Contract without the fine print

I just finished a table which compared the platforms of the Nacionalista and the Liberal Party. You can see this in this link.

Noynoy Aquino's "Social Contract with the Filipino People" is entertaining because it is a contract without any fine print. Meaning, you don't know what you are supposed to sign for.

For example, the "Contract" (download Platform 75 at http://www.noynoy.ph/)  talks about addressing poverty thru transformational leadership, with emphasis on addressing graft and corruption. From there, the platform seeks to address the issue of poverty through job creation but nothing specific as to what would generate jobs or what is the role of government in terms of generating local jobs.

It talks about the economy and the importance of strengthening the rural sector but says nothing about how to actually strengthen it. Curiously though, the Contract does not even talk about agrarian reform, nor agricultural productivity or even the issue of developing rural industries.

Noynoy Aquino and the Liberals want us to sign for change, but how to actually do it, remains still, under a cloud or realm of contemplation (?) or study (?). No concrete stand on trade liberalization nor of agrarian reform. No concrete foreign policy issues discussed and even on the issue of peace and order, the platform lacks concrete solutions on how to address the insurgency problem. There is, however, a phrase on the Mindanao issue, which lacks comprehension--a broadly supported peace initiative---a meaningless term devoid of any explanation whatsoever.

Read it and you'll find that it is peppered with "motherhood statements" and hasty written conclusions and ad-hominems that shows an amateurish treatment of the very serious societal issues the country is currently facing. 

What the people need least is another document which promises a broad-strokes solution to problems which need concrete answers. We need substance, not empty promises that links this to that.

Even in the issue of ecological preservation, the Social Contract is wanting. It does not say what are the means to actually preserve our natural resources or what would be the role of the people in this.

The absence of any stand or position regarding agrarian reform nor a review of onerous trade pacts or agreements shows that Noynoy Aquino's platform is not transformational nor as revolutionary as most of us hope. The platform refuses to make a concrete stand on these vital or core societal issues because probably, it wants to preserve the interests of those behind the party, namely, the landed gentry and Big Business.

I felt betrayed, simply because I expected a Contract that presents solutions, not motherhood statements or stirring up phrases or sloganeering or emotionally laded ones. Probably,  Noynoy Aquino expects us to jump in a crevice without even him telling us why or why not? We need leaders who not only inspires, but also provides us with concrete answers. We don't need someone to tell us we are poor or that government has corrupted our morals and has stolen billions from us. We know that as a fact already. What we
need is someone who will tell us how to actually lift ourselves from this morass and how will he address the issue of corruption or how to deal with those who already committed graft and corruption.

Again, it is curious to note why Noynoy and the Liberals did not even tackle the issue of prosecuting Mrs. Arroyo and her gangster members. Unlike in the Nacionalista Party platform, the Aquino platform is silent about the prosecution of Mrs. Arroyo.

I felt like Noynoy Aquino just threw us that social contract for us to read and sign and just support him and when he wins, that would probably be the time that Noynoy and the Liberals will sit down and hammer concrete solutions to our most pressing problems.

The question really is---is Noynoy Aquino really ready on the task of steering us or commandeering the entire Filipino People towards nation-building? I ask him and the Liberals to reform this Social Contract, make it more responsive and then, maybe, I'll be able to answer with firmness, that, indeed, Noynoy Aquino deserves to be our leader.

Manny Villar personifies Gloria Arroyo

For the nth time, Senator Manny Villar failed to again honor his previous commitment to the people--that after filing his Certificate of Candidacy, he will start joining presidential debates. Last night, ANC held a presidentiable forum and Villar, not even his shadow, was there.

For somebody whom reports say is very serious in his campaign for the presidency, Villar's action is not just condemnable---it shows Villar's lack of responsibility. Binabastos ni Villar ang taumbayan. Villar is mocking us. Villar just disrespected the Filipino People.

Villar's actions also reinforce the belief that he will just be using his billions just to get elected.

We cannot elect someone who does not respect us. Villar just showed that he is no different from Arroyo.

And it's days after he filed his CoC, yet, we don't even know what Villar is fighting for. We don't know his platform. Aside from motherhood statements that he is for the People and he wants to fight the scourge of poverty, what else Mr. Villar?

We don't know where Villar positions himself when it comes to the RH bill.

We don't know what Villar would do with the secessionist and insurgency problems.

We simply are in the dark as to what Villar will do with private armies.

And we simply don't know how Villar will actually help the poor, whom he claims to belong to.

Is Villar afraid to cross swords with the witty Noynoy Aquino? Is he afraid that he will lose his "mystique" when other contenders expose his lack of an indepth knowledge about the ills of this Nation?

It is very dangerous to elect such a man into office, who thinks that everything is for sale, and who thinks that he is not accountable to explain himself before the very people he wants to serve.

The Senators of the People

General Danny Lim, one of those who deserve to be elected for the Senate, is filing his Certificate of Candidacy on November 27. The good general is running under the Liberal Party AS A GUEST CANDIDATE, contrary to earlier reports that he was asked by the United Opposition to bolster their senatorial slate.

In the last survey, Lim was not in the Magic 12. It means that Lim should work harder. That was the situation that Antonio Trillianes found himself in during the 2007 elections. At the last stretch, Trillianes won.


Aside from Lim, I expect good friend Susan "Toots" Ople to file her CoC. She will do so on November 30, the birthday of our national hero and the only representative of the proletariat, Andres Bonifacio.

Ople is the only one with a Labor agenda. She has been working for the interests of the OFWs and locally-based laborers and workers for the past decades. We hope she will continue her advocacy at the Senate.

There are reports that Makabayan has severed their ties with the Nacionalista Party. Good. Satur Ocampo deserves a seat at the Senate. His entire life has been devoted to the Cause of the People. Same goes to Liza Masa who has worked hard to improve the condition of Filipinas and children in this country.

I had a chance to meet Teofisto Guingona III, also running under the Liberal Party and I must say that the scion of the last Filipino Nationalist also deserves to win. TG, as his friends call him, is quite intelligent.

TG deserves our vote.

Col. Ariel Querubin is also gunning for the senate. I don't know how serious he is in his candidacy but definitely, Querubin deserves our support and vote. I don't quite understand though why he is running under the Nacionalista Party.

My Senatorial Slate:

1. General Danilo Lim
2. Susan "Toots" Ople
3. Satur Ocampo
4. Liza Masa
5. Teofisto Guingona III
6. Col. Ariel Querubin

Villar's pamamanhikan kay Loren--will this change Manny's chances?

Michael Lim Ubac, Philippine Daily Inquirer reporter quoted Senator Loren Legarda on the so-called "dramatic pamamanhikan" MannyVillar and his wife did with the lady vice presidential aspirant last Sunday. Loren was quoted thus:

“He told me, ‘I believe in your platform on environment, agriculture and climate change,’ and I said, ‘I believe in your platform on helping migrant workers and pushing for their rights.’ In that respect, we clicked right away,” Legarda told this reporter

Do you believe this crap? I don't.

If you look at it, that Sunday event was grotesque to say the least. It was a melodramatic rendition of a torn 45 vinyl record. Imagine a Manny Villar grinning ear-to-ear when his wife gave him away to Loren. This only happens in Muslim marriages, when the first wife agrees to give her husband away for the second.

It was a marriage of convenience between two traditional politicians---that's it. Were there any talks about protecting the environment, or the OFWs as what Loren said? Bull. Between two trapos, the environment and OFWs are least among the issues they probably discussed.

Loren agreed on Villar's proposition because she needs money to defeat Mar Roxas. Roxas continues to lead by 37% percentage points,  a mile away from Loren's ratings. Without logistics and a network, Loren is a sure loser.

Obviously, among political parties the Nacionalista Party is, by far, the most organized and with the widest of grassroots networks. Loren will not go to Lakas-KAMPI CMD, the party is suffering from organizational disarray. The Liberal will not accept her, neither is the United Opposition (UNO) for reasons the NPC also knows.

In this "grotesque marriage" between a billionaire and a political courtesan, the groom seems on the losing side and the so-called bride got all the goods. Villar has logistics, Loren does not. Villar has the organization, Loren, zero. But Loren has her charms work for her. But, will that charm benefit her political "husband"?

Will a Loren Legarda improve the chances of a Manny Villar in the presidential race? Pulse Asia's October survey sees Villar's rating slipping further south, an indication that last August and September's ratings had already reached a plateau. Villar peaked so early that he now faces a tough climb against formidable and more popular political opponents such as Noynoy Aquino and Joseph Estrada.

Loren's constituency is the same as that of Villar's. To get the presidency, Villar needs to get as many provinces and regional voting blocks as possible. Example---Batangas is a sure give-away to Noynoy after Vilma Santos transferred from Lakas to Liberal. Batangas is one province with the biggest voting block, not just in terms of numbers but moreso as an ethno-linguistic block.

Cavite remains a white country considering that Lacson's influence over the province is more pervasive than the Remulla's.The Remullas are aligned with the Nacionalista. The province's foremost party, the Partido Magdalo is a card-carrying member of Villar's party.

Laguna is obviously another "white country" and in the 2010 elections, support will split between Estrada and possibly Villar's. It is too early to say if Noynoy Aquino's Liberal Party can actually snatch this province away from the two, but now, it's possibly going for Villar more than Erap.

The solid North is also fragmented, with the Marcoses supporting Estrada, a big factor in getting this vote-rich region. While Ilocos Sur remains "liberal", Cong. Eric Singson is not running; his son Owen is. So, it remains to be seen whether Ilocos Sur will break away from tradition and vote in block behind Noynoy instead of Villar.

Pangasinan is also a vote-rich province. The De Venecias, it seems, are rooting for Villar. Yet, their influence in the province is not that formidable compared in previous years. Governor Espino remains a force to reckon with despite rumours of an Agbayani comeback. Having said that, Pangasinan is definitely white country with no major political party claiming the entire province their own.

Bulacan has over 2 million voters. Former governor Josie dela Cruz is reclaiming the governorship, with the "blessing" of incumbent governor Mendoza. Dela Cruz remains a very strong and influential force in the province but traditionally, Bulakenos do not vote as a block. Whoever Dela Cruz aligns herself with will, in the end, get the most votes. Dela Cruz, by the way, is an administration ally. 

Cebu, another vote rich province with 5 million voters, is probably going for Teodoro, but the Liberal Party and UNO have their thing going there. The Nacionalista also has their traditional networks still working for Villar.The Osmenas are working tirelessly for Noynoy while the Garcias are either for Estrada or Teodoro's. Winston Garcia, the son of kingmaker Pablo Garcia, is running for Congress and surely, he will campaign for Teodoro. Places he can reach and those which the Garcias have moral and persuasive influence will go for Teodoro. Gwen Garcia, a Lakas-KAMPI ally, is torn between supporting Erap or Teodoro. The Garcia political clan will have to split their allegiances between Estrada and Teodoro. 

To win therefore, Villar has to get as many minority vote rich areas to undermine the strength of his opponents in major vote-rich areas. Villar hopes that Legarda would do that for him, getting him support from major areas already dominated by his opponents. If you look at Legarda's numbers, however, you'll find that she does not have the moral nor the political influence heavier than the others. Legarda will surely not improve Villar's chances in a substantive way.

Now, if you say that Mindanao will go for a presidentiable whom Legarda supports, you are mistaken. Mindanao goes for the logistical jugular---the one with the money, wins. Villar can get Mindanao without Loren. However, Villar has to go to the Pangandamans, the Mangundadatus and other political "heavyweights" before he can rightfully claim victory. For that, he also needs the blessing of the military. 

Net---Loren is just a prop, a beautiful one indeed. Her team-up with Villar will not change the way the people think about the Nacionalista nor will she deliver the votes needed by Villar to win. In all likelihood, Legarda got the best out of this deal. And Villar will lose his billions.

Noynoy running for President; 5 Traditional Oppositionists gunning for top spot

Now, the political scene is getting clearer by the day.

The traditional oppositionists, and that includes the Liberal Party with some reformist groups, have at least five candidates for the presidency.

For the Liberal side, Noynoy Aquino has already announced his candidacy, while from the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC), Senator Chiz Escudero. Former ambassador Ernie Maceda has said that former president Joseph Estrada is running under the UNO party while the Nacionalista Party is fielding Senator Manny Villar.

On the administration side, its a toss up between Vice President Noli de Castro, who will announce his candidacy on September 15 and Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro. De Castro is rumoured to have agreed to be Villar's running mate, which then opens the door for Teodoro. Eventually, it could be a Teodoro-Puno tandem. However, should De Castro, indeed runs under the administration banner, he could probably team up with Puno, which then would lead to a break up of the Lakas-KAMPI CMD coalition.

Recently, 49 governors have thrown their support behind Teodoro, of which about half of them do exert a great influence in their respective areas. Teodoro remains a dark horse in the presidential derby because he has the machinery to actually launch an independent presidential campaign. If Teodoro does indeed, break away from the Lakas-KAMPI CMD merger, it could open the possibility of Lakas aligned with De Venecia Jr. to shift their support from the administration party-led KAMPI to Noynoy's political party.

As what we wrote a few months ago, a five to six man run for the presidency would possibly lead to an administration win. Remember that Mrs. Arroyo still enjoys a 20% mass base support and with majority of local government officials aligned with the administration moving for the admin-backed candidate, this could lead to a decisive win.

Noli de Castro running as president

ABS-CBN anchor Ted Failon and beautiful and talented co-anchor Pinky Webb interviewed Vice President Noli de Castro today. Webb (congrats by the way. Webb is really promising. She's even better than Karen who reported a lop-sided (PR?) story yesterday about the Ruby Barrameda case) asked De Castro if he's running for the presidency.

De Castro said he's done as vice president so it's confirmed that he's running for another post. The question really is---what political party would he be running under? It's confirmed that he's talking with the stalwarts of administration party Lakas-KAMPI. He admits that the party has a very strong machinery. The question that De Castro wants to resolve is very simple---does he really have his own funds and his own machinery before he plunges himself in the race.

Lakas-KAMPI members are urging De Castro to reveal his political plans. De Castro, however, said that he's not doing that AT THIS TIME since he needs to finish many things first as Vice President. He does'nt want people to think of politics when he does his job as V-P. He thinks that it's still a few months away anyway from the deadline in filing his certificate of candidacy. Webb hinted that it may be in September when De Castro would declare his candidacy.

What De Castro does not know is this---October would be the month where political parties would nominate their official candidates for all elective posts. So, if ever he wants to really run, he needs to declare it as early as August to allow him some time to visit the areas of Lakas-KAMPI members and feel the pulse of the people there.

Simple--KABAYAN does not have the luxury of time to dilly-dally.

Same thing with the "opposition". They need to decide who among them would bear the tag "opposition standard bearer", because UNO needs to submit the name of their standard bearer and the names of their other candidates this October 2009. So, if they want to win, Erap Estrada should really decide who to support as their candidate.

What is clear at this point is:

1. Liberal Party would be fielding Mar Roxas as their standard bearer. The only question is--who between Senators Ping Lacson and Kiko Pangilinan would be his running mate?

2. Nacionalista Party is clear that they're fielding Manny Villar. Question is, who'll be his running mate? Would it be Bong Revilla? Or, would he slide down to the vice presidential post in deference to the entry of a Noli de Castro?

3. Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) has Chiz Escudero. His proclamation would be on October 10. Question is--who'll be his running mate? Would it be Loren Legarda?

4. UNO is sure to field Erap Estrada. Question---would Legarda allow herself to slide down to the vice presidential post? It seems likely. Now, should Legarda decide to put her fate in the NPC, then, definitely UNO would field an Estrada-Binay tandem.

5. Lakas-KAMPI has four (4) aspirants: Gilbert Teodoro, Noli de Castro, Bayani Fernando and Richard Gordon. Gordon, obviously, if asked, would slide down to a re-election as senator. Teodoro already said that he's only interested to run for the presidency; meaning, he'll not slide down. Fernando, by the way, seems to just be posturing. I think Fernando would be asked to just run as senator. Yet, even among the top senatoriables being surveyed by PulseAsia and SWS, Fernando's position is between 28 to 45---very, very far.

So, you see, only Lakas-KAMPI has (1) few options and (2) their candidates are weak in the popularity game, with the exception of De Castro. Now, if they field De Castro, would Teodoro give way and run as his V-P? That would surely alienate Ronnie Puno who already proclaimed his bid for the second top post. If they do not nominate De Castro, then, the only way for him is declare his independent candidacy.

Erap's Options: Last in a series

As I wrote in the preceding entry, a De Castro run for the presidency will surely lead to an Opposition victory in 2010, since his campaign will run rough-shod any administration-backed campaign. De Castro has the same, yet bigger constituency than Teodoro's or Gordon's and it will be a repeat of the 1998 scenario, where the incumbent party lost by a mile against the counter-elite (I am wont to describe Erap as "opposition" since in 1998, he ran for the presidency from the V-P platform)

Now, who among the opposition will most likely benefit from a fractured administration front?

To answer this, we need to assess the strengths of the machineries of Liberal Party, the Nationalist People's Coalition and Erap's group. In terms of resources, the Liberal Party enjoys more resources than the NPC. Of course, if LP is ranged against Erap's group, the Erap faction is bigger.

Now, how to transform the LP from a minimal player to a bigger one? Simple. The Liberal Party has to fracture Erap's faction. It can be achieved in two ways: encourage or gather support from Lacson's and take away NGO and PO support from the Erap group. Lacson announced that he'll be running for the presidency come 2010. Even if he does not team up with Mar Roxas that is enough to frustrate Erap's organization, since, we all know what happened in 2004.

A Roxas-Lacson would be positioned as the true opposition, which will marginalize Erap's. Now, what will happen to the NPC? That is a big question. I'll gather more information about this, but, surely, they'll also be marginalized.

Going back to Erap, I think the option that is sure for them is get Villar to team up with Jinggoy Estrada. That will give them more muscle. If Erap runs, will he repeat his phenomenal victory in 1998? The most likely outcome is still sketchy since it would now depend on the horizontal size of his grassroots organization. But initial analysis shows that Erap will not be able to get the outcome he wants. First, if he decides to run, the administration will go after him. And lastly, it is still anybody's guess if he still has the political clout to begin with.

Now, should Villar really team up with Jinggoy and not with De Castro (as earlier surmised), then, he stands to gain more and probably would give Roxas a run for their money. De Castro would probably run independent and coalesce with another independent, Kiko Pangilinan.

To recap:

1. If LAKAS-KAMPI CMD fails to get De Castro as standard bearer, the administration commits the 1998 faux pas and risks marginalization. This paves the way for an opposition win.

2. If LAKAS-KAMPI CMD gets De Castro, the administration wins only if the opposition does not field a unified candidate. In a 3-cornered fight, the opposition still wins. However, in a one administration bet fighting 3-4 opposition bets, chances of winning goes to the administration.

3. If De Castro runs outside LAKAS-KAMPI CMD and coalesce with Villar's group, he still loses to an opposition bet. Mar Roxas stands to gain at this scenario, especially if Lacson decides to run either coalesced with him or runs independent. A Lacson campaign will neutralize Erap's faction, a repeat of the 2004 elections. It is now in the best interests of Mar, should he really decide to go all-out, to marginalize Erap's group by getting the base support and get all those NGO's and PO's behind him.

4. If De Castro runs outside of Lakas, coalesce with Villar and Lakas-Kampi CMD fields Teodoro, they will all lose to Mar Roxas provided that Lacson runs and Erap fields his own candidate or himself. If Erap decides to run, he risks losing both his political clout especially his stature as a kingmaker.

5. Lastly, if the opposition fields one candidate and the administration rally one, opposition wins. If administration fields one candidate, and another one runs a parallel campaign, and the opposition fields at least two to four candidates, a minority bet will win not on the strength of a party machinery but through sheer charisma and PR. This is very dangerous since it opens up the country to chaos and possibly, extra-judicial term extension.

Lakas-Kampi merger, designed to fail?

Vice President Noli de Castro is in a bind. He's being courted left and right by traditional political parties, more importantly, by Lakas. Prospero Pichay, Lakas-CMD spokesman said that Noli is the top choice for their party. What will Loren say about that?

With the NPC moving towards Kampi while the Nacionalista moves closer to Lakas, a Noli de Castro might spoil the broth. NPC mulls on pitting either a Chiz Escudero or a Loren to the presidential fight. While Nacionalista obviously guns for Villar.

Like what we predicted in earlier entries, Noli might opt to go independent or join Lakas. The most likely scenario is Noli declared as Lakas standard bearer even without Kampi joining Lakas. Kampi is quite committed to NPC which is likely going for Chiz instead of Loren. Chiz is turning 40 years old, a necessary requirement if he wants to be president. Loren might have to settle for the VP again, or worst, seek re-election as senator.

Liberal party is moving for Mar Roxas. The faction of DENR secretary Lito Atienza is reportedly joining either Lakas or Kampi, but quarters insist Atienza favors Kampi more than Lakas. In a Lakas-Kampi coalition, should it push thru, we will see a Lakas-Kampi merger as the major political party, coalesced with the Atienza Liberal faction, Villar's Nacionalista and NPC. That will be the most formidable party ever, if Gabby Claudio succeeds in fixing the possibly problems at the grassroots level.

Should a merger succeeds, then, we will see a Noli-Villar tandem, with Villar as vice presidential bet. Villar is reportedly sick and is open to this option. If this happens, a possible split will happen between NPC and Kampi, since NPC would probably want Chiz to be standard bearer.

In all likelihood, these maneuvers will probably lead to Lakas-Kampi self-destructing prior to 2010, leaving the traditional parties Liberal and Nacionalista dominating the elections. Not cash scrapped, Liberal and/or Nacionalista could give Lakas or Kampi a run for their money.

2010 Configurations--Bayani's pink slip, Loren's party, and Cheez Whiz

Sources from the administration confirmed the marriage of KAMPI, the administration political party and the Nationalist People's Coalition of former Ambassador Danding Cojuangco. This marriage, it seems, cements the political component of the Cojuangco-Arroyo-Ongpin cabal. And in all likelihood, this strong party, will field as a common candidate two names: Senators Loren Legarda and Cheez Escudero.

Yesterday, Senator Legarda already announced her willingness to run as president during her birthday party in Tondo. The birthday party has all the trappings of a campaign, with the pompoms, the free clinics, free food sans the wines and spirits that attends every Loren Legarda b-day party. When asked if she's willing to run as president, Legarda said that she's ready.

This is not all surprising considering that Loren has been going around the country, attending all these annual festivals and fiestas, even going to funerals all around the Philippines (heard that she did that in Vigan, Ilocos Sur). Loren wants to be president and her strong showing at the surveys could very well justify her intention.

However, what is NOT BEING REPORTED is the fact that Cheez Escudero topped the newest and recent surveys. Escudero is now at the number one spot, followed by Legarda, Noli, Villar, Roxas and a host of others. Expectedly, Chief Justice Puno is part of the bottom rung.

So, we have a situation here which the NPC should resolve---who between Escudero and Legarda will Cojuangco annoint as party standard bearer? Those allied with Mrs. Arroyo says that it will be Escudero who will asked to head the presidential campaign. However, what about Legarda who told a reporter yesterday that it's the presidency or nothing?

Was Legarda just bluffing? Probably not. Legarda's plan is linked with the expected candidacy of Vice President Noli de Castro. Legarda wants a second round with Kabayan. And she does'nt relish the scenario of playing second fiddle to a Kabayan presidency.

Are we seeing the first of a series of party dissension? If Legarda will not accede to Escudero, the NPC-KAMPI coalition might find themselves on the losing end come 2010.

By the way, I think in the bitter end, Escudero will just give way to Legarda since he's a few years shy of the constitutional qualification for president.

So, expect a Legarda-Escudero combination for NPC-KAMPI.

Question---what now, Kabayang Noli de Castro?

There are two options for Independent Kabayan---either give way to the courtship of Lakas as standard bearer or do it alone. Some sectors in Kabayan's camp are cold to Lakas while entertaining a merger with a slowly weakening Nacionalista camp. Since it's now evident that NPC has already went to bed with Kampi, this puts Noli in a bind.

Which party will Noli align himself with? He could probably make some overtures with NPC and KAMPI just to frustrate the ambitions of his nemesis, the Lady Legarda and try to spoil the brew there. Or he could stay independent and court some financial backers to support a new party ala what FVR did in 1992. This could prove beneficial to Noli given that in a clean elections, he stands a pretty good chance of clinching the top spot, given his strong showing at the surveys. However, for him to really get the top gun, he must play politics prior to the second half of this year. He must make some overtures to Legarda's backers and strike a deal that will probably leave Legarda in the lurch. He could still do that, given that majority thinks that Noli is winnable or at least have a fighting chance to get the presidency instead of Loren.

If all these fail, however, Noli can still align with Villar for a possible tandem. Heard that Lakas has teamed up with the Nacionalista and Villar is ready to give in to Kabayan as a compromise. So, in a Lakas-Nacionalista alliance, surely the winnable team is a Kabayan-Villar tandem.

So, this leaves Mr. Mar Roxas. What to do with him though?

Observers note that Senator Roxas could suffer the fate of his idol, the former Senate President Jovy Salonga. Yes, he has the financial muscle. Yes, he is charismatic. Yes, he has strength of organisation. However, what he is not, though, is this---he is still being lumped together with trapos like Villar, Escudero and Loren. He's not doing enough to differentiate himself from the motley crue.

Since we see a possible four presidential teamup, the winner will definitely be the one who'll successfully position himself as a maverick. Roxas still has the time to do this. His standings at the surveys are not plateau-ing, unlike Villar's. He still has a fighting chance. However, what he needs to do is continue positioning himself as a change agent rather than a rabble rouser. He needs to back up his anti-Arroyo statements with positive propositions. Meaning, the public would rather hear him talk about what to do with this mess rather than just rant.

In such a convoluted scenario, Roxas will have a hard time looking for a suitable partner. Obviously, a Roxas-Villar tandem will not work since it both pits two strong personalities together and in the realm of perceptions, a marriage of two traditional political parties.

Roxas might go the route of Roco who got a veritable unknown as tandem, only to lose and get the lowest rank in the elections. Most probably, Roxas might team up with a candidate to be fielded by the opposition camp, namely either from UNO or PMP. That candidate could either be Makati mayor Jejomar Binay or could even possibly be Gordon, should he jump ship this early and position himself more as independent rather than administration-dependent.

And there there is this joker, MMDA Bayani Fernando.

This loser of a dreamer still wants either the vice presidential post or a senator invitation. The problem is, even in the senatorial surveys, Fernando is faring VERY, VERY LOW. Inspite of his obvious tactic of gunning for the top spot and try to just run for the senate, Fernando's trust ratings are quite low. Yes, he's one---one percent vote. This one percent represents those who has dictatorial or Hitlerian mentality, those who dreams of pink, a shade of red. Clerics who try to write intellectual but does not understand even an iota of philosophy, subscribes and worships Fernando, probably finding him an iconic figure representing their repressed feelings while inside the seminary. Their pink slips are showing everytime Bayani fumbles. They try to disinfect Fernando's pseudo-Bayani antics to no avail. People are finding it simply too hard to re-imagine Bayani Fernando simply because no one could ever change a moronic and weak minded colorful chap like him.

Or, better yet, there's a solution. Bayani should fire his publicist.