Who will clinch the presidency in 2010? Part I

The man who will spearhead the mass movement in May 2010 will become Arroyo's successor. And this man will be among those who will run in the presidential post, the man whom everyone thinks will win but will be cheated even in an automated elections setup.

Who is this man? Let us analyze.

For now, Noynoy Aquino remains the top contender for the presidency. He sustains a commanding lead over his opponents in the survey. What is damaging him at this point are Word-of-Mouth statements which say that his numbers are diminishing or decreasing. Obviously, any one who knows his statistics that when a candidate's numbers are high in the early stages of the campaign, it would "normalize" only by March or April. In Noynoy's case, surely, his numbers will remain high but when the actual start of the campaign begins by February, that will surely change.

Noynoy's problem is easier than, say, Villar's or Estrada's, since the Liberal Party's main worry is just how to sustain Noynoy's trust ratings. Conversion is another problem that is only solvable thru a wide and expansive grassroots machinery.

Though it is easier for Noynoy, in the final stretch, he has to have a big resource base to use in the actual voting and counting phases of the elections. Noynoy has to protect his votes, otherwise, he will lose. In order to do just that, the Liberal party must manage an entire virtual army of volunteers who will risk their lives just to monitor the developments on the ground. Management means billions, and that's an undeniable fact of political life.

Now, this is what bugs the Liberals since, at this point, they do not have the full support of the traditional political financiers, since some of these funders are obviously in other camps, especially in the Nacionalista party.

This is what Noynoy's Liberals and other contenders fear---the time when the Nacionalista Party unleashes their vaunted resources. The Nacionalista, as you know, is perceived to be the "strongest party" with the "biggest and strongest network", because of Senator Manny Villar.

Villar, as you know, is determined to win. He has charted his political career even way back when he ran as Congressman of Las Pinas. He planned this to happen. Villar has his billions and a wide network of supporters, coming from his real estate companies. Villar can actually spend five billion pesos and it will not even affect him in the short-run (long-time yung effects yan).

If Villar gives 1 billion pesos to Mindanao (that is the rumour), that is a game changer. If Villar allots 1.5 billion pesos to Luzon and 1.2 billion pesos in the Visayas and probably half a billion pesos worth of advertising and propaganda materials, he might, just might, clinch it.

The only stumbling block for Villar's ascendancy to the highest post is simply a public uprising.

Are you asking what will happen to Joseph Estrada's PMP and UNO? Their situation is worse than the Liberals since (1) their ranks have been decimated with defections and (2) they don't have the entire Tsinoy community financial support. There are even talks that Estrada might, just might, throw in the towel prior to the elections.

How about Gibo Teodoro's campaign? What will happen to him?

Gibo will only get as far as 14% or 16% of the votes, not enough for a win. Despite the much-publicized strength of the Lakas-KAMPI CMD party, it would take Gibo, more than 5 billion pesos to win, which, under current circumstances, the administration will be hard-pressed to get.

Remember that the Arroyo administration is now operating under a re-enacted budget; meaning, Arroyo will only get or expect to get the same amount of monies from the budget to support Gibo.

Noynoy Aquino continues to lead in the presidential race

Senator Noynoy Aquino continues to lead other presidential aspirants in the presidential surveys. In the latest Pulse Asia report, forty four percent of 1,800 adult respondents interviewed said they will vote for Noynoy Aquino as the Philippines' next president. Pulse Asia said Noynoy's ratings remained "stationary", while all others increased.

Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar's ratings improved by 4 points (from 19 to 23%) while Joseph Estrada's ratings went up by 8 points (from 8% to 19%). Gibo Teodoro of the administration party got 3 points after remaining as a cellar dweller for some time. While the other presidential aspirants got ratings of 1% to 0.50%.

The Pulse Asia survey validated our earlier blog entry that says that should Chiz Escudero withdraws from the race, his supporters will increase the ratings of Joseph Estrada and some will possibly go to Noynoy and Manny Villar. It seems though that Escudero's constituency broke up and most transferred to Estrada and Villar.

The Liberal Party welcomed the Pulse Asia results. This shows, says the Liberal, that most people favor the advocacy of the party for an honest and clean government.

As a researcher, these survey results mean these things:

1. Noynoy Aquino, thru his relentless campaign sorties and less the "glamourous" TV ads, is solidfying his mass base support. If he sustains his lead, he will be the most formidable candidate ever in the history of Philippine elections. No other candidate has been given the mandate of 44% ahead of the elections. Joseph Estrada, who commanded the most successful presidential campaign ever, just got between 23-30% ratings ahead of the 1998 elections. He got more than 30% of the electorate vote.

2. Manny Villar's lead is still surmountable. Since Villar got the nationalist block on his side, that is about 2-3 million votes extra for him. Likewise, should the Marcoses endorse him, Villar stands to gain from the Solid North votes. If he solidies support from Mindanao and snatch Visayas away from Noynoy Aquino, it will increase his chances of clinching the presidency.

3. Don't count Joseph Estrada out yet. His ratings continues to surge, a benefit he gained from the withdrawal of Chiz Escudero. However, his mass base will just be between 20-24%, still lower than Noynoy's. In the event that Erap decides to withdraw from the race, his supporters will shift to Villar. That would benefit Villar.

4. Gibo Teodoro needs a miracle to win. He needs to make a public "disengagement" with the Arroyo administration. However, that would only translate into a ratings "push" of 8 points. Arroyo's 4% stable mass base will only be translatable to Teodoro's and give him a ratings of about 11-14%.

"The Survey" of " The Center"

Ed Malay, a publicist, created The Issues and Advocacy Center or "Center", purportedly a survey group. A PR man of former president Fidel V. Ramos, Malay spearheaded surveys on presidentiables, the most recent, a survey reportedly showing administration candidate Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro's "surge" and Liberal party candidate Noynoy Aquino's "stationary dive".

I've been in the strategic marketing research for a very long time (since my MA in Comm Res-UP Dil), managing survey groups for banks in Singapore before (Citibank, AMEX, etc.) and even helped in creating a research group (ITMC) which assist private companies and in a decade of involvement, this is the first time that I encountered the term "stationary dive". What in the world does this mean?

The "Center" said that Noynoy Aquino continues to lead Manny Villar by 7 points, yet the "Center" noted "the survey" shows Aquino's ratings slowly levelling to a point where it is now just 31%. Malay, however, said that Noynoy continues to show strength in the "super regions", yet, highly praised Gibo Teodoro for getting at least double digit ratings (10%) after the presidential debates.

And it seems that the "Center" was created to specifically aid in the candidacy of two formidable administration allies---Gibo Teodoro and Richard Gordon. Whereas these two always get single digit (and rather dismal) ratings in Pulse Asia and SWS (Gibo--2%; Gordon--1 or even less), "The Center" says in "The Survey", that Gibo is now double digits and Gordon "at least 8%". Wow. Talk about statistical improbabilities, this one is phenomenal.

Look at what Ed Malay told the media about "The Survey" results:

“The other significant movements were Teodoro’s climb to 10 percent on the strength of his bold decisions on the Maguindanao massacre and his impressive showing in two presidential debates, and former President Joseph Estrada’s 19 percent as he bounced back from last October’s survey,” he said.


“Sen. Dick (Richard) Gordon also began to make his presence felt with eight percent.”


Malay said Teodoro benefited from the positive reviews that he has been generating from the public debates among the presidential aspirants, as well as his handling of the Maguindanao massacre even when he was no longer defense secretary."

See the PR standpoint? Let me reproduce with the permission of the Philippine Star and Paolo Romero, what Ed Malay, the publicist cum survey man, told a news conference about what "The Center" noted:

In the wake of the Maguindanao massacre, Filipinos “have begun to look not only at the qualifications of the presidential aspirants but also at the experience and capability of each to lead the country in 2010 and beyond,” he added.



Malay said the presidential debates became a springboard for Teodoro by highlighting the qualities of strong leadership and bold ideas associated with strong leaders.


"The debates were most harmful to Noynoy,” he said.


“(They) exposed the weakness and lack of depth on the basic issues by the neophyte senator when ranged against a more knowledgeable and experienced candidate such as Teodoro who topped the 1985 bar exams.”


With the elections five months away, the Center sees a further tightening of the race among the top four or five candidates, Malay said.


Malay described Aquino’s once-formidable lead – driven by public outpouring over his mother’s death in August – as a ”myth” and a “bubble.”


He cited an earlier survey by The Center taken Oct. 19 to 26, 2009 where a “stationary dive” in Aquino ratings was detected.


The survey was the first since Dec. 1 after the candidates had filed their COCs with the Commission on Elections.


Malay said the survey was a more focused and accurate assessment of voters’ sentiments than earlier ones.


“People have started narrowing down their choices and preferences, basing them not on rhetoric but on what each presidential candidate represents such as their platform of governance, family values, advocacy of issues, and the viability of the roadmap each has proposed to lead the Philippines out the political and economic doldrums,” he said.


Malay said the survey asked respondents the question, “Who would you vote for from among the list of nine presidential aspirants (Noynoy Aquino, Manny Villar, Erap Estrada, Gibo Teodoro, Dick Gordon, Bro. Eddie Villanueva, JC de los Reyes, Jamby Madrigal and Nicky Perlas) if elections were to be held today?”


Reacting to The Center’s survey, Zambales Rep. Mitos Magsaysay said it only “confirms the crowd-drawing charms of Teodoro, who visited several cities across the country in denims and green polo shirts, even without celebrities in tow.”– Paolo Romero

Malay mo tama si Ed. At malay mo din ang "Sentro" ay ginagamit lamang para kay Gibo. You'll never know--Malay ni Ed.
Wow. Talk about surveys, this one is definitely PR-related. "The Center" is one wrecking crew, trying very hard to project that Gibo is the man to beat in this elections and trying to justify that political machinery still works here.

Come 2010, a President Estrada, an Estrada as Senate President and an Ejercito as Speaker

There are those who refuse to see what's before them for lack of knowledge or simply want to close their eyes to the truth.

Come 2010, if the people decide, then, we will have a Joseph Estrada as president, his legitimate son, Jinggoy Estrada as Senate President and an illegitimate son, JV Ejercito, as Speaker. Talk about an Estrada restoration, this one is for the Guinness book of World Records.

And we condemn the Ampatuans for being warlords when we face the possibility of just one family dominating our entire country and dictating our very future for six years.

If Manny Villar wins the presidency, then, I see a repeat of the despised Arroyo regime. Imagine a president having his son in Congress and having an ex-Congresswoman as First Lady? What are the chances of his son being elected Speaker of the House while Villar sits as president? Likely, yes.

This is also the case of Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro, who wants to field his mother as Congresswoman of Tarlac, replacing his wife, the lovely Nikki Prieto-Teodoro. A mother and son tandem ruling the government?

How about the case of Noynoy Aquino? Should he wins, he will have a Councilor in Valenzuela as first lady?

Worst if we elect former president Joseph Estrada. Imagine a scenario where Erap sits as president while his son, Jinggoy Estrada serves as Senate President. That is not far-fetched since Jinggoy enjoys top spot as a senator in all surveys. If Jinggoy clinches the no. 1 position as Senator in this elections, we may have to contend with the possibility of an Estrada as Senate President.

If Estrada dies due to old age or disease, and efforts are made to discredit the vice president, then, another Estrada replaces the old one. Cute. :-)

Don't forget that another son, JV Ejercito, is gunning for the Congressional seat of San Juan, while his mother, Guia, is poised to win the mayoral post which JV will vacate come June 2010.

Come 2010, that would surely bring the entire Philippine House down---an Erap for president, a Jinggoy for Senate President and a JV Ejercito for Speaker. If all of them wins, then, we literally have a dynastic family ruling the entire Philippine political system. This is the surest way for us to have our very first Constitutional monarchy---an Estrada one, at that. Wow!

So you think that Erap has the moral authority to demand the Arroyos not to seek elective posts when all of his family are involved in this elections?

Besides, we saw how the Estradas abused their power when they occupied Malacanang. And we all know that Estrada is what, as Ebdane says, "utak pulbura" (meaning a war-freak), then, we can say that Estrada can be likened to an Andal Ampatuan.

Probably yes. Imagine, Ejercitos dominating the political system, armed with guns and their bullies, again.

And this is simply not too different when you ask me about Bangon Pilipinas presidential bet Eddie Villanueva. Villanueva has a son for a Congressman whom reports say will run as a legislator in Bulacan. Another Villanueva sits as mayor in one of the towns in Bulacan too. Should Eddie wins, then, we have a possible repeat of an Arroyo-like regime.

So, who do we choose?

The worst evil is elect an Estrada. The least evil, is, I think, vote for a Noynoy who will simply not allow a repeat of the Kamag-anak Incorporated that dominated his mother's administration. Or, will he really not allow this?

I say go for a JC delos Reyes. Oh, by the way, a JC win would translate into a Gordon? Wala na talaga.

Kay Nicanor Perlas na lang tayo.:-0

Arroyo's Gambit & The Masonic Bid for Power

The reason why Mrs. Arroyo daw is running for Congress is simple---a convenient way to protect herself and her family from possible post-2010 prosecution coming from her numerous political enemies. Others say it is to be the country's second Prime Minister, the first being the megalomaniac and dictator Ferdie Marcos. What some Congressmen planned to do is make the transition from presidential to parliamentary happen shortly after the opening of the 15th Congress in June 2010. A Constitutional review would definitely ensue since the proposal passed the plenary already and a budget has been allocated for the election of representatives to the Concon.  This election will coincide with the barangay elections.

So, it seems that everything is neatly mapped out, with these "visionary" Congressmen intending really to replace the current Charter shortly after the May 2010 elections. It might be too presumptuous for them to prognosticate without of course, assurances from "higher powers" that they would be able to retain their respective seats. How would they under an automated elections, seen as an anti-thesis to cheating and fraudulent acts? Do they know something we don't?

And if it is certain that Mrs. Arroyo is ready to gamble her remaining months in office in exchange for a Congressional post, this possibility, by itself, results or may lead to certain instability.

If she files her COC by December 1, she needs to resign as president and hand over the reins of power to her Constitutional successor. She will do so in tandem with her defense secretary Gilbert Gibo Teodoro, who is expected to leave the defense portfolio before November 12. Two critical Executive positions are being sacrificed, a high price indeed, for a presumptuous idea that is fraught with uncertainties and dangers.

It seems that Mrs. Arroyo is being lured to a trap---a pathological one---her being promised the moon and the stars under a pretense of certainty. Mrs. Arroyo is playing an unnecessary gambit at a time when the state is being threatened from all sides. 

Anyway, should she really decides to pursue this, Mrs. Arroyo is creating an unnecessary instability, a power vacuum , which, under its current state, the government is ill-prepared to solve by itself.

Threats come from unexpected places. Example is the sudden resignation of Ebdane, austensibly, to pursue the presidency. Ebdane, as we all know, is one of our wisest generals. He represents a secret society which counts as members, generals and colonels and those with arms. And we all know that political games are least among their expertise. Surely, Ebdane's moves and actions are suspect especially at a time when the administration is transitioning.

BY positioning himself outside the circle of power, Ebdane counts no loyalty to Mrs. Arroyo. He can definitely do what he wants, since he has, under his vast disposal, lodges and Masonic adherents who play an important role in this society. And in all likelihood, we may see a former Grand Mason assuming a transitory role as president should Mrs. Arroyo goes ahead of her plan to run.  Masons ruling? That will be the day indeed!

At last a candidate with a Vision! Loren Legarda tops all candidates

Loren Legarda just announced that she'll be running for the vice presidential post come 2010. Her Luneta announcement last night is better than all the other candidates running for the top post. Instead of a melodramatic speech, peppered with necropolitical imagery, Loren presented a platform.

At last! A candidate with a vision, a candidate who has the strong will to say what she truly wants to do and what she intends to fulfill should she be elected for the top post. Let me quote her "six-point must-do" Pro-People Agenda from an Inquirer report :

First, the country’s resources, including government funds, should go toward affording all Filipinos housing, sanitation, potable water, access to medicines and proper health care, education for the youth and skills training.

Second, government must recognize the contributions of overseas Filipino workers by facilitating their gainful employment, providing them ample protection against abuses and by continuously upgrading their skills and knowledge.

third, the new administration must really crack down on corruption, which wastes the country’s limited resources, destroys institutions and undermines the trust of the people and of the international community, including foreign investors.

Fourth, protection of the environment and initiation of pro-active measures to address the problem of climate change and the disasters related to it by strictly following geohazard maps in pursuing development plans, flood control and solid waste management systems.

Fifth, forge a genuine peace, especially in Mindanao, not only through law enforcement but through the resolution of the root causes of the conflicts in the countryside, poverty and social injustice to name a few.

Sixth, forge a cultural renaissance for Filipino culture and traits to be recognized, rejuvenated and passed on to future generations “because they are what makes Filipinos unique as a people.”

I asked all New Patriots to vote for Loren Legarda. I ask my fellow brothers and sisters in the Islamic faith and all other faiths, to campaign for her.

With Loren's entry, the vice presidential derby has become more interesting than the presidential. Imagine, two political heavyweights, namely Mar Roxas and Loren Legarda, will be fighting headlong in this. Loren enjoys an edge since based on SWS surveys, she has a solid mass base support of 26%, far from the 13-14% mass base support of Roxas.

Roxas has the money but Loren has the support of local government officials and of course, Danding Cojuangco.

If the Estrada oppositionist camp wants to win, it must convince Binay to just give way to Loren Legarda. Now, if Loren runs with Chiz as her presidentiable, they might possibly clinch it. A Chiz-Loren tandem has better chances than, say, a Villar-Loren or a Teodoro-Loren, although this tandem is really very, very ideal for one simple fact---both are highly intelligent and with a vision. Sadly, this cannot be because of a misconception that it is a kiss of death to align with the administration.

60% of Filipinos favor Noynoy as President---SWS

The third quarter survey of the SWS is now out. This survey is very critical for all political parties because it is that one document that they would share with potential political investors. Based on this survey, conducted by the SWS last September 18 to 21, via face-to-face interviews with 1,800 respondents, the most preferred successor to Mrs. Arroyo is none other than---Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III.

Aquino got 60% of survey respondents vote. A far second is Nacionalista Party bet Manuel "Manny" Villar who got 37%, an improvement from the 33% he got in a previous survey.

Former president Joseph Estrada's numbers are rather disappointing, as he is a far third, getting 18%, three points higher than Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) bet Chiz Escudero who managed to maintain his rating of 15%.

Both Estrada and Escudero suffered a ratings drop, with Estrada dropping 7% percentage points (from 25% to 18%) while Escudero's ratings also got a 5 percentage point drop. That means that both have plateaued already within this range, as accurately predicted by this site a few weeks ago.

Not in the running anymore as a presidential bet, Senator Mar Roxas still got a respectable 12%, followed by Vice President Noli de Castro at 8%; Senator Loren Legarda at 5% and Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro with 4%.

Legarda suffered the biggest drop in percentage points. She lost 10 percentage points, the single biggest drop among the presidentiables. Teodoro is the second best gainer. From a 0.8, he now has 4%

Others who got some points include Senator Panfilo Lacson and Makati mayor Jejomar Binay at 2%.

MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando remains stedfast for being at the 1% slot :-) This affirms that if there be an election today, only 1% of the electorate will vote for him, which is okey if he goes back as mayor of Marikina. He'll surely win.

Jesus is Lord Movement Eddie Villanueva remains at 1%, a tad higher than Mrs. Arroyo who got 0.05%

Observations:

1. Bayani remains hopeful for being consistently at 1%
2. Chiz Escudero's ratings have plateaued
3. Mar Roxas, despite being a vice presidential bet already, remains very competent in the public's eye.
4. Loren Legarda's supporters probably was given the instruction not to push thru with her presidential candidacy and focus on other things.
5. Trust for Noli is slowly disintegrating.
6. The vaulted 20% support base for Gloria to benefit Gibo is nowhere to be found. A mirage.
7. Erap Estrada's numbers remain consistently lower than expected. Meaning, his mass base support has disintegrated already. In fact, the latest survey showing him dropping from 25% to 18% is worrisome.
8. Manny Villar remains the closest rival of Noynoy and with the most consistent high survey showing since late last year.

Appeal for Teachers to teach kids in evacuation centers

I started this over at my Facebook page (just look for me and use mangubat.patricio@gmail.com). I figured that those teachers out there who are not affected by the floods, let's join hands and go to evacuation centers and continue teaching those kids there. For those willing to teach these kids, please register at my Facebook account and let's strategize on how to do it.

Having a calamity is no excuse for kids to neglect their studies. In fact, this is the best time for us to distribute reading materials for parents and their kids. Best time for bonding, right?

I ask companies and my friends to please donate reading materials, preferably kiddie stuff to evacuation centers. Let's teach parents to read with their kids while spending time in those centers. Let's turn this disaster into an opportunity for both parents and their kids to learn from each other.

To knowledge channel, I hope local officials will install television screens in evacuation centers so that people will still watch their favorite shows. To Gibo Teodoro, this is an unsolicited advice which you might consider po sir.

Let's join hands po. By the way, I salute Muelmar Magallanes, a relative from my mother's side, for his bravery. Our family mourns the loss but is proud that our race, the Magallanes clan, responds to the call of the times.

Teodoro is No. 1--FVR

Yesterday's affair saw former president Fidel V. Ramos giving Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro his trademark thumb up sign. In FVR's mind, Teodoro is truly qualified to run for the presidency, but cut short of endorsing him, saying that he reserves that right until November 15, the day when political configurations are clearer.

Honestly, I share FVR's belief about Gibo. Among all the candidates, Gibo is, I think, the most intelligent, the most idealistic and the most straight-forward of all of them. What's best about him is he knows the system very, very well, and knows how to actually cure its infirmities. And he has this fire in his belly and the glitter in his eyes that tells you this person has the qualities of a great Leader.

What Teodoro however does not have is the right moral compass.

Teodoro thinks like an American. Look at how he views things. He says he will continue what Mrs. Arroyo accomplished and more.

If he opens his eyes a little bit, Teodoro would have seen how devastated the people are when Mrs. Arroyo's government fails to do its mandate of somewhat regulating markets. Teodoro is a typical technocrat who mouths vision without going to the market or the grocery first to see first-hand the problems.

Teodoro failed to see how Mrs. Arroyo's war policies have put the lives of thousands of Bangsamoro families in jeopardy. Teodoro only knows the language of war.

Teodoro does not see anything wrong with those scandals involving Mrs. Arroyo and her husband. He finds nothing wrong with the ZTE-NBN deal, nor does he sees anything immoral with the Joc-Joc Bolante fertilizer scam. And surely, Teodoro thinks that Hello Garci is as normal as any other telephone call.

Teodoro fails to get it when people always thumb Mrs. Arroyo's policies down. For him, okey if Mrs. Arroyo's government allows cartelization of services. Okey if families such as the Aboitizes go scot-free despite their ships killing scores of Filipinos. Okey if businessmen such as Danding Cojuangco controls most of the economy or people like Ricky Razon or Cesar Quiambao corner most government contracts.

For Teodoro, it is okey to allow Mrs. Arroyo to just fade away, allow her to enjoy retirement with monies amassed during her term.

Teodoro may have the brains. The defense secretary may have the right war strategems to use against his own people. And Teodoro may have the fire in his belly to do the right things.

But, what he does not have is the right appreciation of Philippine reality.

Warning to Mr. Puno---Do Not Engineer an Admin Win in 2010

DILG secretary Ronnie Puno's was very confident when he told Vic de Leon-Lima and Karen Davila (of Pasada Sais Treinta, DZMM, 4:30-5:30pm, Mon-Friday. Kudos to Vic and Karen for improving their program. I always listen to them.) that Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro could still catch up. He likened Gibo to Tabako when the latter ran and won in 1992. Puno said that Tabako was at the bottom rung of the surveys (12%?). After a few months, Tabako surged way ahead and eventually got the presidency.

Puno's voice was very confident. He even made sure that we're all convinced, stating his "experience" in the elections. Ah, yes. Flashback to 1992 and I just remembered that Vic and Karen were talking with the architect of the country's first "dagdag bawas" scheme (if Miriam is to be believed).

Puno was sharing his experience, peppering his statements with " I saw this before.." " FVR is also like this.." and " even Gloria was like that.." and bolstering his arguments with " elections are eight months away.", " surveys are not reflective of public sentiments", " the Lakas-KAMPI machinery is strong.." yadiyadiyakyak!

When Puno was saying all these things, I told myself---meron bang alam si Puno na hindi pa natin alam? Maybe Puno already know how to automate the "cheating machine"?

Think about it. Who will operate the automated elections? Hindi ba SMARTMATIC-TIM? Who are the people behind this company? Hindi ba mga business associates of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo?

We must be very vigilant, my friends for these elite forces, are again masterminding the fraud of the new century.

What "strong machinery" is Puno talking about, eh, Lakas party members are deserting the merged group and crossing over to the Nacionalista party of Senator Manny Villar?

Even the Liberal Party is accepting Lakas and Kampi party members, especially those government officials once aligned with former president Cory Aquino. There are many "dilawans" in Lakas and Kampi. One example is Quezon City mayor Sonny Belmonte (a Lakas party member). Do you think he'll go for Teodoro instead of Noynoy? The answer is very obvious--he'll support Noynoy. And that means votes close to a million for Noynoy.

And the merged party is not even legit. There is still a pending case before the COMELEC, filed by former speaker Joe de Venecia, questioning the legality of the merger and praying that the poll body dissolve and declare the merger as "illegal".

Should COMELEC decides to legitimize the merger, the possibility of the entire Lakas party shifting their allegiance to the Liberal or Nacionalista party, is a possibility. That would dissipate Kampi ranks. Instead of Kampi raiding Lakas, Lakas will raid Kampi. And that's what this is all about.

So, if this happens, where's the vaunted strength of Kampi? Puno will find it extremely hard to justify a Teodoro win because it will just be a matter of time before the entire Lakas-KAMPI merged group shifts their entire machinery from the administration to the opposition.

Without a justifying circumstance, what will Puno use to justify both his win and that of Gibo?

Admit it---Gibo, for all his promise, is a sure loser. Probably, he'll get most of the Ilokano votes, but the Solid North will probably not deliver ALL votes to the administration. For example, Pangasinan is still solidly a De Venecia territory. A survey says that more than half of Pangalatoks will vote for Noynoy. Ilocos Sur is still Cong. Eric Singson's turf and surely, he's aligned with the Liberal Party. He'll deliver the votes for Noynoy. Maybe Tarlac will be a split vote, but Pampanga will not vote entirely for Gibo. Pampanga will go for Noynoy.

NCR is disputed territory. Erap has majority of the votes here, but should he sacrifice his bid for Noynoy, that would surely be a problem for Gibo. The CALABARZON area will probably be split between Noynoy and Gibo (and to some extent, Villar's). Bicol region is controlled by the Villafuertes and Cong. Luis Villafuerte is working very hard to slidify the votes behind Chiz Escudero. The Visayas region will probably go to Villar (most of the votes).

It will, again, boil down to the Mindanao and ARMM areas where administration Congressmen (mostly Lakas) have a firm hold. That will change if Lakas members decide to cross the rubicon (I will not be surprised if they do it before October).

So, you see, Puno will have a hard time justifying his win and that of Gibo's because of the fact that, unlike 1992, vote-rich regions as well as other areas of the country, have a changed voter landscape. More voters are aware of what's happening, most desire for change and majority want a new leader who will not continue the legacy of Mrs. Arroyo. That is the most apparent sentiment reflected in NSCB and SWS surveys.

Now, if Puno and Arroyo's gang are thinking of cheating their way to victory and are confident because majority of the AFP and PNP leadership will be peopled by their own men (PMA Class 1978), they better re-think what they'll be doing this time.

We now have a revolutionary situation. The only reason why people are still silent is because of the absence of what I call " a dramatis causa". This elections are very sensitive to a lot of people. If this administration thinks that they can get away with murder the fourth time around, they're extremely mistaken.

If they cheat, they better prepare their forces. They better be very, very prepared. Because the masses will not allow their voices to be stifled once again. And surely, that would justify New Patriots spilling over the streets with their arms.

Never cheat. Never steal our voices again. If you try, be very ready to die.

Danger signals for Mar Roxas, Chiz and Villar

In the latest Pulse Asia survey conducted during the period July-August, Mar Roxas placed fifth with 11 percent, 4 percentage points lower than Chiz and about 14 percentage points behind Nacionalista Party's standard bearer Manny Villar. What this suggest is that Roxas' ratings already plateaued and there's no room for Roxas anymore to maneuver to the top. This is the same case with Chiz Escudero, whose ratings continue to hover between 16-19%, while what's surprising is Villar's ratings continue to rise, yet, I believe that statistically, he has already attained his highest ratings. However, if Villar sustains his ratings of 25 to 27%, he may yet be the next president.

This survey also shows that despite the enormous efforts by Mar Roxas to improve his ratings through advertisement, he's not getting the high favorability ratings commensurate with the value that he's paying for those ads. Remember that Mar Roxas and Villar spend almost the same in terms of radio and TV ads. Villar is getting favorable reactions while Roxas does not.

Likewise, Roxas is not getting favorable ratings either from that highly publicized wedding with ABS-CBN broadcaster Korina Sanchez. In fact, his ratings got worst when he announced his engagement with Sanchez. Roxas ratings suffered a 2 percentage point cut despite his very aggressive propaganda campaign.

And don't count former president Joseph Estrada out. Estrada continues to sustain a very comfortable ratings. This is reminiscent of his ratings in 1998, when he registers a very high ratings in the third quarter of 1997 before finally getting the highest ever public approval ratings in the first quarter of 1998. Estrada's ratings validate info I am getting from grassroots organizers that the public is enthusiastically accepting Erap's candidacy if ever.

And look closely at the survey, Mar Roxas registers poorly in the National Capital Region and Mindanao, with just 8 percent and mind you, even in his natural constituency, the ABC class, he registered a mere 9 percent! That sends you a message that even intellectuals and the middle class don't seem to favor him as their president.

Worst, in the Visayas, his natural stronghold, he places third, with 16%---a far cry from the 30% of Villar and the 22% of Noli de Castro. Now, should Chiz runs, they'll be sharing or breaking the oppositionist class, the D socio-economic class, since they share the same 12% percentage points.

Mar Roxas' eight percent ratings in Mindanao validates earlier information that he enjoys little or no support from Muslim communities due to his warlike stance regarding the MOA-AD. I heard highly reliable info from grassroots organizers in Mindanao that they'll ensure that Mar gets zero votes in Mindanao.

Some suggestions for Mar Roxas

1. Please abandon the padyak theme. It's really not working for you.

2. Be different and rise above the rest by highlighting what you did for the poor and the middle class during his term.

3. Be different, otherwise, you'll lose.

On Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro

Despite his commercials and PR efforts, Gilbert Gibo Teodoro registered a poor 0.2percent rating, just 1 percent higher than relative unknown presidential candidate JC Delos Reyes. Imagine this delos Reyes does not even have television ads but he's just a tad lower than Teodoro's ratings.

This is a laughable situation. I think Gibo is just mishandled. He should change tack soon.

Palace to make a move against Gibo soon?

Senator Frank Drilon, citing sources from the palace, says that Secretary Ebdane will head the Department of Defense (DND)--a move interpreted as a precursor to the declaration of martial law in the Philippines. What's curious is the expected "lateral" transfer of Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro to the Justice department, with now current head Agnes Devenadera to go back to her solgen post.

Why the justice department for Gibo? Is he not an effective soldier anymore for Gloria? Probably because of his strong public condemnation of martial rule yesterday, when he said that there's no such thing and he'll be first to oppose it, same stance as former president Fidel V. Ramos. Or, possibly, Gloria is afraid that Teodoro is gaining more and more adherents not just in the military, but moreso in civil society. I, myself, admired Teodoro's grit. He seems to be the perfect leader, having a good grasp of things and with a good and strong heart.

Maybe Teodoro is being eased out because he's getting bigger than his boss. Being a professional in Arroyo's Cabinet is not an admirable trait. What Gloria wants and likes are dogs. These people serve her well and calms her troubled mind.

Or possibly, maybe the justice portfolio is more apt for Gibo, since the post is more "controversial" and one can get more publicity juice out of it. Or, maybe, Gloria suspects that some group within the Cabinet is sabotaging her and wants a Honduran solution soon?

I asked my classmate what he thinks and he says that Gibo and Gloria are not seeing eye-to-eye anymore after Gibo's lavish birthday party. Gloria was not there, but her Cabinet members were. That party was interpreted by close Arroyo associates as a virtual Munich Putsch. Remember that even Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita was there to toast for Gibo.

An Oddity

It's so odd that, a few months prior to her downfall, err, the end of her term, Gloria is still making all these moves. Ebdane was formerly PNP chief and commands his own men inside the Philippine National Police (PNP) and AFP. Like DOTC secretary Leandro Mendoza, Ebdane was one of those who remained loyal to Madame, because they're friends of her husband, First Gentleman Mike Arroyo.

Ebdane remains very relevant to Mrs. Arroyo since his former subordinates now occupy highly sensitive posts within the AFP and PNP.

Consolidating power for what?

For an administration with a few months left, it's totally suspicious why the sudden re-shuffle. Is Gloria easing those not in her inner circle anymore and moving to consolidate all power to her group? Teodoro revealed that he's not too privy to what Arroyo thinks anymore, a possible sign of disengagement to the power center. (some say that the reshuffle will happen shorly during or after Arroyo's trip to Egypt)

Why consolidate power when you're virtually a lameduck at this point, except that you're preparing for something big soon?

The transfer of Ebdane, Arroyo's closest general, says something. This is actually an indirect admission that internal squabbles are really happening within the military establishment, for both glory and gold.

The defense department has a say on appointments in the AFP. With the current wrangling within the military and police, Arroyo probably sees the need to appoint someone very close to her so that her favored PMA class gets the top posts even while AFP Chief of Staff General Victor Ibrado stays as head.

The plan really is to undermine the leadership of Ibrado, subverting him by snatching the ranks beneath him, while allowing him to act as Chief of Staff. This is reminiscent of the moves by Lacson's group when he allowed his men to undermine then PNP Chief Roberto Lastimoso's leadership while allowing Lastimoso to "act" as PNP chief.

Bombings related to efforts to "delimit" Gibo's power as defense sec?

Arroyo's men know that its hard to dislodge Gibo from his seat, given his rising popularity. What would, however, justify this?

Instability. As what I wrote previously, this administration thrives in destabilization. It always gets what it wants shortly after a destabilized situation.

By creating a destabilized environment, Malacanang can now justify the removal of Gibo from defense and transfer him to the justice portfolio. The question really is---what's next?

More on this at http://daily2020.blogspot.com/. See you there.

Teodoro denies plans to institute Martial Law

Defense secretary Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro says that government does not plan to declare martial law for one obvious reason---it is legally unjustified.

First, he says that there's no insurrection or rebellion. And second, public safety, at this point, is simply not compromised, as yet. He also indicated that Malacanang does not plan to even declare a State of Emergency, since, he considers these as counter-productive.

While I'm writing this, a bomb exploded in Jolo, injuring one policeman. This is the 39th time a bomb exploded in Mindanao.

Now, Teodoro said that if these bombing incidents are being perpetuated even by one single member of the government, he'll prosecute them. Teodoro likewise said that he'll disassociate himself with those who want to further confuse and sow terror. For Teodoro, these acts are counter-productive.

The AFP has blamed a certain Baja Usman, an alleged member of the MILF special ops group as the mastermind behind the bombings. The military even connected the regional terror group to the MILF, which the MILF immediately condemned in a statement.

What Teodoro, however, failed to say is what if government, particularly those hawks within Arroyo's inner circle plan a self-coup, similar to previous God Save the Queen plans? Will he stand up and condemn it when it happens? That's obviously the plan of some ideologues within the regime---to launch a coup and institute a "revolutionary government". This is what National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales suggested a few weeks ago. Shortly after Bertgon's statement, bombs subsequently went off in successive fashion in Mindanao and Metro Manila.

Will Teodoro also disassociate himself and condemn this coup if it ever happens?

Important also to note that Teodoro's statement now contradicts the statement made earlier by Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita. Ermita said that Malacanang will not tarry a minute longer in declaring a State of Emergency if violence breaks out in the SONA. Is this indicative that Teodoro no longer enjoys exclusive privilege as a member of Arroyo's inner circle?