Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Robredo as game changer and possible VP come 2016

Robredo as game changer and possible winner in 2016

Three Senators belonging to the Nacionalista Party are running as vice presidential bets without any running mates. If one of them wins, they would surely be in conflict with whoever wins the presidency.

As of the moment, three people have intimated their desire to run for the presidency. Mar Roxas, the one who since 2010 has aspired for it, the same thing with former Makati mayor Jejomar Binay. A neophyte, Senator Grace Poe, believes she is destined for a post which she probably believes to be as easy as a post in the PTA. While another possible bet, Davao mayor Rody Duterte, is still mulling whether he tosses his rational hat unto this ring of fools.

At the vice presidential derby, five senators would eventually be slugging it out—all males---against a lone female, who was thrust into the national limelight as a second fielder. In all likelihood, Leni Robredo, the sole female, could be the second female Vice president, a formidable counterforce as to whoever wins the palace.

Robredo’s entry into this messy business came as a delicious afterthought. However, if you study things closely, you’ll find that there is a very serious reason why Robredo is there. Robredo is supposed to represent the “enlightened” segment of the reformist elite, which was relegated in the sidelines because of Poe’s association with Escudero.

In all like-li-hood, the possibility of Robredo winning the vice presidency is big.  As it is with Philippine voters, most like to vote for underdogs as they can readily identify with them. Look at the majority of winners even in local elections—most of them were underdogs and some even look like dogs.

It would be extremely hard for other VP contenders to trounce Robredo in the perception game. Imagine a debate where one lone female lawyer ranged against the “bullies” of the Senate? That image would surely etch itself in the minds of voters and come election time, would eventually translate into votes.

I am not concerned with a high popularity rating with Robredo—because I am confident that she will get a very high conversion rate. In a situation where a 20% rating is enough to win, even if you get a 20% popularity rating yet, the conversion is high, say 98%, that assures you of victory.

In a scenario where Robredo wins, she is like a peg put there in case a Binay wins. Everyone knows that it would be a hard climb for Roxas to win, even if he wins in a very convincing and very fair elections. For sure, the already starry eyed Poe and the over confident Binay would question a Roxas’ win. Their combined forces would surely overturn a credible Roxas’ election victory.

Binay might be even at the cellar of the ratings game but using the very argument I used in estimating the high likelihood of a Robredo win, a Binay popularity rating of just 20% yet with a high conversion of 90% plus puts him winning against a 25 plus percent popularity rating of Poe yet with a conversion rate of just 30%. We are being made to accept that a high popularity rating assures one of victory and we overlook the fact that it is conversion rates that assure poll success, not popularity. You may be popular but your conversion rate is low, chances are that you’ll lose the game. As they say in politics, lose the fame, win the game.

What Robredo brings in the game

It is enough that Robredo goes to every stage during the campaign. That is more than enough to counter Grace Poe. I don’t expect her to say much for or against anybody because Robredo’s mere presence counters that of Poe, who goes around carrying nothing but a surname which claims to carry a legacy more of the showbiz kind rather than socio-political.

The image is overwhelming—Robredo, the people’s lawyer, ranged against Grace Poe, someone who just mouths motherhood statements without even understanding what her speech means.

A Robredo win is expected because it shows what other political analysts failed to grasp—the overwhelming sentiment of voters against traditional politicos and the voters’ penchant for electing new faces into power. This is an observed phenomenon since 2010.  This is the secret why Pnoy won over Villar and other “experienced” politicos.

The fact is---Robredo’s entry also benefits Binay because people will probably forgive his “trespasses” since there is already a Robredo as a check and a balancer.

Possible Binay-Robredo administration

A fearless forecast---the final ballot would reflect a Binay-Robredo win, something which will shock the people of this country. Why do I believe that Binay will win? Binay will win due to the strength of his machinery while Robredo will win based on positive perception. Both have a very interesting narrative. Over time, people will get tired of Poe’s narrative. Poe will maintain her high popularity rating but it is highly questionable if Poe maintains her pace onward to the polls. Remember---the game is about voters remembering you from the very moment that voter faces the ballot inside the precinct