Friday, October 19, 2007

Analyzing the Glorietta Blast

Expect the worst. This is what I gleaned from the radio interview made with PNP Chief Avelino Razon Jr. The PNP chief says that they are anticipating other incidents which may happen. So, expect other incidents.

My gut tells me that this is not over. My years of training as a police-beat reporter, covering wars, hostages and strifes as a TV reporter tells me that this blast is a handiwork of a group of madmen, but which group, let's find out in this entry.

Who's who in the list of madmen?

For us to determine who among the list below of groups of madmen who probably did this psychotic thing, let's look at the precedents or events that happened prior to this bombing.

1. Jemaah Islamiya-ASG. Rate of possibility: 3 stars out of 5 stars.

Prior to this blast, reports say that the AFP nearly cornered Dulmatin, the vicious master terrorist who instigated the Bali blasts. Reports say he's still here in the Philippines. However, what I believe, based on studying this issue is, he's not here anymore. He could be living or hiding somewhere in Malaysia. Nonetheless, we can't discount the possibility that he ordered somebody or a group of like-minded psychotics to do this kind of thing.

One the other hand, I am wont to believe that this group is responsible for this blast. One, reports say the group is looking out for funds. They are on the run, says the AFP. So, being on the run, they could not possibly do this thing. Besides, if we are to believe AFP intel reports, their support infrastructure has been destroyed with the dissolution of the Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM). Likewise, I don't think that a Filipino Muslim, convert or not, would turn into a bombing dummy. Intelligence organisations have studied the psychological profiles of would-be Islamists here in this country and there's no indication that anyone of them is so capable of sacrificing their bodies for Allah SWT.

But, I think, Malacanang will use them to explain this for want of a better suspect. If they, indeed do this, the implication is so obvious--the Philippines can never claim to be the strongest ally of the US against terrorism. It would spell the doom for Arroyo and could justify US support for her speedy ouster.

2. CPP-NPA. Rate of possibility: 2 out of 5 stars

News reports say CPP Spokesman Gregorio "Ka Roger" Rosal is dead. The CPP-NPA immediately issued a statement denying this. However, the AFP stood by its earlier statement. It is suprising though why the AFP wants Ka Roger to surface. Maybe they sense that Ka Roger is up to something? However, the rate of possibility of them doing this kind of thing is ludicrous.

3. Magdalo soldiers. Rate of possibility: 1 out of 5 stars

Yes, they are young and idealistic. Yes, they have the arms and the solid determination to pursue their mission of ousting GMA. However, they are not that psychotic. If this blast is politically-motivated, it could have been done in a sparsely populated area, not in Glorietta. Who in his right mind would set off a bomb in a shopping mall where there's a high density of people in any one time? If the aim is to make a political statement, it could have been made with minimal casualties. Look at how these Magdalo soldiers launched their coup in 2002. It was held in a hotel. They are cono rebels. No one died in that incident. So, they are not in the habit of setting off bombs just to make a point.

4. CIA. Rate of possibility: 4 out of 5 stars

We know for a fact, that there is an active CIA cell here in the Philippines. Some say they have a permanent headquarter in Magsaysay center, the one in Roxas Boulevard. But, why would the CIA do such a special operations? I think because they are one with other anti-GMA forces in ousting GMA. If this is true, then, GMA is in serious trouble.

5. AFP dirty tricks group. Rate of possibility: 5 out of 5 stars

It is entirely possible that a group of loyalist generals ordered this bombing. One, the blast occurred right after a Malacanang meeting with the generals. A palace snoop told me that the palace gave sums of money to the generals and some actually, honorably, told Malacanang that they will not accept the "bribe" money. After this meeting came the pronouncement of Marine Commandant Dolorfino that we could be headed towards civil war.

This blast could preclude a declaration of a state of emergency. Why do I believe that these loyalists generals have a hand in this? First, these band of corrupt generals have a history already. They were the brains behind the series of blasts to force Erap out. They are vicious. They are corrupt. They don't mind sacrificing lives for the sake of preserving the status quo. Remember what Trillianes and a group of idealistic officers disclosed about the Davao blasts? They pointed to then Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes as the man behind those blasts. They are our modern-day Rolex generals who will do everything to protect their principal from eventual ouster.

They will initiate these bombing raids to create a scenario of chaos and confusion. It is a brilliant idea because (a) it could divert or deflect the attention of the people to the bribery issue (b) force out the resignation calls from the headlines and (c) to justify the imposition of a state of emergency.

What they don't realize is this---this will not work this time. This traditional strategy had been used during Marcos time before and will never work now. There's an impending social revolution, just waiting to explode anytime. Groups are fed up with GMA and there's no other option left for her except resignation. Otherwise, Dolorfino might be right in saying that we could be really headed towards direct, bloody confrontation.

We are in the dying hours of a corrupt, inept and immoral regime. This Hitlerian tactics will never work.

Message to those dark forces

Hours ago, Arroyo convened the National Security Council (NSC). We don't know what was discussed but one thing is definitely sure--they are preparing for war. They know their enemies and they will do everything to save this regime from total annihilation. I am definitely sure both camps are busy finding or looking for a compromise. They will not find any.

In times when people are fed up with the lies and immorality of their leaders, some men are expected to stand up and sacrifice their futures for the sake of the next generation. This regime thinks highly of itself, that they are invincible. However, it will not be long before they collapse from their own weight.

I am very sure that a coup is forthcoming and I will revise what I wrote here earlier that this could probably stretch until January. It could be that regime change will happen earlier than expected.