Shock Treatment

A major confrontation is expected between the forces of Good (anti-GMA, anti-bribery probe) versus the forces of Evil (pro-bribery and pro-GMA) in the first week of November. November may be the darkest days of this administration because at that time (a) the Senate probe would have ended and (b) Congress is expected to reconvene after the holidays. Some say the long holiday (from 29 October to 2 November 2007) would be used by the enemies of Mrs. Arroyo to launch something against her.

It is also evident that both forces (GMA and anti-GMA) have finished an accounting of forces and both parties know their individual strengths and weaknesses. The lines have been drawn and expect a full confrontation starting November. There are certain questions that need to be answered, which I will lay down one by one:

1. Is a civil war possible? Under the circumstances, yes. A civil war is definitely possible if GMA clings to power tenaciously. If the current talks between the GMA and anti-GMA forces fail, chances are GMA might be the first president who brought us civil strife. Should it happen, it would only take about a week.

2. Is ouster of GMA likely? Yes. This bribery issue already broke the camel's back. The effects is irreversible. There is no solution viable enough to appease the soldiers nor the masses. It is a dead end. JDV's call for Mrs. Arroyo to overhaul the administration is a futile call. The only solution is the total eradication of this administration. No amount of damage control can be done to arrest this.

3. Will we have another EDSA? Maybe not this time. This time I think, will be totally different. It would be a purely military coup. The model is Thailand.

4. Will we have democracy after this? Yes. It is the strategic interests of the US and other countries to maintain democracy in the Philippines. A civilian-military revolutionary government is viable under a democratic setup. Businesses will not be touched. Civil liberties will not be violated. However, measures against counter-revolutionaries and the forces of the First Family will be the first to go under this government.

5. Will exile be the preferred exit of the 1st Family? Should the first family decline the offer of an emissary of the anti-GMA forces which will be delivered personally to the palace before November, GMA and the First Gentleman will spend their xmas in jail.