Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Deconstructing Chiz's resignation

Let's postulate why Chiz Escudero decided to resign from the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC). There are two (2) things which people said as "learned speculation" (based on coffee shop talk).

First, this is the most gracious way out for Chiz Escudero. By declaring that he is now a free man and beholden to no one but himself, Chiz is in effect saying that should he decide not to run, no one influenced him. That decision, should he elect to do so, will not damage the NPC, which, even on the last minute, hoped for a Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda tandem.

By resigning from NPC, Chiz is, in effect, paving the way for NPC to nominate its own presidential bet. NPC now has a free hand on concentrating more on strengthening the candidacies of their local candidates instead of fielding a national slate. This gives NPC more leeway to negotiate with the administration, or even with the Liberal Party or the UNO. Without a national candidate,NPC members can now carry any presidentiable or senatoriable without problems since they don't have a national slate anyway. That is better for Danding Cojuangco since by strengthening his party base, he stands to preserve his political clout.

With Chiz out of NPC, that opens the possibility of the NPC also nominating Loren Legarda as their official standard bearer. As standard bearer, that will eventually give Legarda more muscle to negotiate.

The second possibility is Chiz being adopted by a THIRD FORCE, possibly a political movement composed of various reformists and progressive groups. If this happens, that would sweep the rug under Noynoy's since, these groups converged behind Noynoy when the good senator positioned himself as the People's alternative. As what NPR and PinoyObserver noted a few entries ago, the reason why Chiz lost considerable "pogi points" in various surveys was that Noynoy split the progressive block and "hijacked" Chiz's constituency. More progressive groups gravitated around Noynoy because most, if not all, detest Chiz's association with a traditional political party, namely, the NPC. There are still many groups opposed to NPC because it is being funded by Danding Cojuangco, a known Marcos crony.

With that out of the way, and Chiz deciding to be a "free agent" as what Ricky Carandang described his status now, these groups who once routed for him, will now have a reason to re-consider their political alliance and gravitate to Chiz Escudero. That would surely cause Noynoy a big headache because most of his organizers belong to progressive groups. Should they re-consider their earlier decision to back Noynoy, these organizers would then shift to Chiz, causing a veritable movement, bigger and stronger than the Noynoy Fever.

Question---will this movement propel Chiz Escudero to win? YES. Remember that all these political parties depend on their grassroots organizers for victory. If all these organizers shift allegiances and support Chiz, the chances of him winning is near 100%

NOW,

What if Chiz decides NOT to run, what will then be the possible scenario?

Without Chiz in the configuration, Nacionalista party Manny Villar will surely win the 2010 elections. Obviously, certain groups will now gravitate to the heavier force, and based on our analysis, that is the party of Villar. Probably, FPJPM will re-align itself with Erap and some may even go to the Liberal party. But, Villar's win is sure if Chiz is out of the way.