Thursday, November 7, 2013

Effects of Napoles' appearance before the Senate today

Wherever you look at it, Napoles' appearance before the Senate today is disastrous to the State, particularly to the Aquino administration.


  • If Napoles does not speak today and invokes her right to self-incrimination, that will further enflame public anger against the present elites of this country.

  • If Napoles speaks but imparts a miniscule information about her alleged "scheme", that will increase public hatred against every single politician in this country.

  • If Napoles speaks and tells the truth and drags mostly the names of opposition leaders, then, that will be perceived as "coached" by this administration and public anger will definitely rise against the Aquino administration.

  • If Napoles speaks and tells the truth and drags both the names of opposition and present-day administration leaders, then, that will decrease public anger yet, will be used as fodder by destabilizers and create opportunities for action. This will shorten the term of this administration.


I likened Napoles' testimony today as similar to the "envelope incident" that led to the downfall of Erap Estrada in 2001. The effects of this will be felt sometime next year or worse, it may even escalate and ripen into a full-blown revolutionary situation before the year ends. Anything is possible. The situation is fluid.

One possible permutation or result of this is a direct inter-elite confrontation. This will never be resolved without an open battle for power between and among elite groups with selfish interests. Eventually, this will result to a computation of forces. Who has the support of who?