God Save the Queen Part Two

New Army Chief Gen. Alex Yano warns of drastic measures should soldiers join the swelling ranks of dissenters in the AFP. Yano says that most of the soldiers remain loyal to the chain of command.

I don't believe it.

Yano is speaking from his nostrils. For the past few days, two generals have spoken about the coup. They said that its an "alleged coup", but their body languages and pronouncements say otherwise. These generals want to allay growing "fears" on this coup. However, they are doing a disservice. If these things are just "rumours", then, why are they reacting like that? They are saber-rattling. Their perceived "enemies" are silent. They are nowhere to be found.

Let me make this straight. First, the business community is not saying anything bad about these rumours. In fact, businessmen don't care. As I've said in previous blogs, the Philippine economy is strong enough against any political turmoil. It will not be affected by any change in political administration. It has been insulated from politics.

Second, the enemies of this administration lurks inside the palace. If there would be a coup, it would be instigated by GMA's own minions. It would be Ebdane and possibly Esperon who will lead the charge. Notice how GMA's camp immediately replaced Ebdane as Defense secretary and how GMA placed Reyes in the Energy portfolio. These actions bespeak of distrust or mistrust of the FVR camp. If there would be a coup, it would be God Save the Queen part two.

Possible scenario:

(1) Mass resignation of soldiers in Mindanao.
(2) Promulgation of Sandiganbayan decision leading to mass revolt by civil groups and Erap sympathizers.
(3) Call of Congress to other sectors to support destab moves
(4) State defends itself; possible outbreak of hostilities.
(5) Anti-GMA forces succeeds in entering the palace. First Family goes to exile.
(6) Establishment of civilian-military revolutionary government.

New Update:

The arrest of CPP Founder Jose Maria Sison due to trumped up charges has doomed peace talks with the rebels. Possible effects would be escalation of armed confrontations between AFP and CPP-NPA. This development is worse than the Mindanao conflict.

For the next three years, peace will elude this administration. MILF said that they will not enter into a peace agreement with the government. It will only do so if the GRP accedes to ceding some territory to the rebels. Meanwhile, MNLF will definitely not enter into any pact for as long as GMA is there in the palace. The arrest of Sison dooms peace negotiations with the Reds.

In the next few years, GMA will become a war president. These wars in the North and the South will put a heavy strain in the economy.

To prevent the country from going down the drain, members of the elite will allow extra-constitutional measures to replace this administration with a caretaker government. One model is Thailand. The possibility of having a government like that of Thailand in the Philippines is very strong.


Army chief warns ‘drastic action’ vs troops in alleged coup
By Joel Guinto
INQUIRER.net
Last updated 02:13pm (Mla time) 08/28/2007
MANILA, Philippines -- The new commanding general of the Philippine Army has vowed to take "drastic action" against troops who would break away amid rumors of a fresh plot to topple the government, saying such action is "non-negotiable."

Lieutenant General Alexander Yano acknowledged that the verdict on deposed president Joseph Estrada, the revival of the wiretapping scandal linking President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to cheating in the May 2004 elections, and the heavy losses suffered by the military in recent encounters with the Abu Sayyaf could be "exploited" by certain groups to rally the troops against the government.

"It's non-negotiable. There are certain provisions against that in the military justice [system]. That is a violation and we have to take drastic action. Wala na tayong usapan dun [We have nothing to talk about]," Yano told reporters Tuesday, when asked what he would do to would-be coup plotters among the ranks.

Yano said there was "no serious report" on alleged efforts to unseat the President but nonetheless acknowledged that "there were political issues that could be exploited by some groups."

"But let me tell you that our troops, including our officers, are professional enough, they know their sword duty, their immediate concern is the fight against insurgency and other threats," he said.

"They continue to follow the chain of commands… They will not follow any efforts from different groups who want to sow chaos," he added.

Last Monday, Major General Ben Dolorfino, Armed Forces National Capital Region (NCRCom) chief, said a "worst-case scenario" if Estrada would be convicted for plunder would be a repeat of the May 1, 2001 siege by Estrada supporters in Malacañang.

The march to the Palace came following Estrada's arrest. He was booted from power in January 2001 when a military-backed popular revolt thrust then vice president Arroyo to power.

The wiretapping controversy, which came to be known as the “Hello Garci” recordings were purported tapes of Arroyo's phone conversations with ex-elections commissioner Virgilio Garcillano over plans to rig the 2004 vote results in her favor, with the help of some military officials.

The alleged cheating operation was one of the issues raised by a group of Army and Marine officers who allegedly plotted to unseat Arroyo in
February 2006. Twenty-eight officers are facing court martial on
mutiny charges over the supposed coup plot.