Analysis of the Peninsula incident

To understand what happened last November 29, 2007, let's take a backward step and analyze this from a distance.

Coup or rebellion?

Was the incident a coup d'etat or a rebellion? Under Philippine jurisprudence, there are not enough elements to qualify the incident to either coup d'etat or rebellion. Inciting to rebellion would probably be their crime, not rebellion because they did'nt occupy a single piece of property whom the government considered a sovereign land nor did they use force of arms to cause a change of government. Same as coup d'etat. The RPC (Revised Penal Code) says that the crime of coup d'etat is a sudden seizure of power through force of arms. There was no sudden seizure of power nor the use of arms. There was a display of arms, that's for sure. And a reading of a statement denouncing the government and asking for the resignation of GMA. However, these actions do not constitute rebellion or coup d'etat.

What then?

The Peninsula incident could qualify for inciting to rebellion. Or an attempted case of coup d'etat.

What then?

Admit it, it was a tactical yet foolish move. It shows how brash and how stupid a strategist Trillianes is. He knows for a fact that the government will throw the book at him if he does this thing again.

However, I understand where he is coming from because Trillianes, obviously, is not combat-experienced. He did'nt take part in any war or was never in the battlefield. That's why he does'nt know the implications of his moves.

Was it contained?

Obviously, the government is using this incident to perpetuate a state of suspended animation. As I wrote here in this blog, GMA relish a period of instability. She survived for all these years due to a continuous state of destabilization. Why is she benefiting from all these? Because in this state, she is free to use the police powers of the state to neutralize both her military and political enemies.

This state could continue until the first quarter of January 2008, basing upon the acts of the government. Observe how government is fuelling this minor, inconsequential incident to render her enemies incapable of more concrete, more lethal actions.

Backfire

This strategy, which I consider a masterstroke, could backfire against the administration. One, it is creating an environment of dissent among the people. Two, it is creating an atmosphere of continuous rebellion which could blow right at their faces, should a more solid, more determined group take action against it.

What's clear

Groups are silent now. Meaning, they are preparing for a bigger, more explosive incident in the coming weeks. If the situation continues, it may lead to a bigger version of the Peninsula incident.