The COPA deadline in January 2008

Today's release of the remaining November 29 Movement members forebode ill to Arroyo's continued rule. Marching outside the PNP Custodial Center where they were kept for 16 days, these leaders vowed to continue the fight to oust Arroyo from power.

Obviously, the next few weeks will see a decrease of political activities. Groups will obviously lie low and prepare for the political battles in January 2008. The first quarter of the new year is interesting because that'll (1) be the end of the deadline set by the Council on Political Affairs (COPA) to Mrs. Arroyo. At the start of the ZTE controversy and the release of former president Estrada, COPA gave Mrs. Arroyo a deadline to reform. COPA said that they see a window of opportunity in the first quarter of the year.

We all know the capability of COPA. By and large, COPA was the one who led the anti-Erap movement that installed Mrs. Arroyo to power. The question that everyone is asking--does COPA still have the strength to lead an ouster attempt? Strength in this case equates to military power. Do they still keep a strong influence in the military establishment?

Next year, Esperon is slated to retire as AFP chief. By the looks of it, Esperon's term will end also in the 1st quarter of next year. There are three personalities being floated around---Tolentino, Marine Commandant Dolorfino and the Army Chief Yano. Yano seems to be the anointed one, and Dolorfino the dark horse. What these generals however forget is the possibility of Esperon continuing his stay in the military.

By and large, the prospect of success by anti-Arroyo groups seemed to have deemed after the Peninsula debacle. Many people whom I talked said that Trillianes should have stayed in the Peninsula a day longer and Arroyo could have been decimated right then and there. There are talks that Trillianes is the one causing the defeat of the opposition because of his foolhardy moves. We don't know for sure. But, if I'm Trillianes, I'll lay all my cards on the floor and really lead instead of just inspiring.