The Gonzales Proposition and Mindanao

When Ferdinand Marcos declared martial law in 1972, there were internal and external threats to the security of the state. Various forces were seen as threats to the authority of the governing power. The growing militancy of the youth, abetted by counter-elite assistance and ably supported by an armed component aided Marcos to swiftly consolidate his power bases and took the opportunity to further entrenched himself to power. These real threats were used as reasons for the declaration of martial rule which lasted twenty years.

Now, there are insinuations that Mrs. Arroyo would do such a thing also just to extend her rule. National (in)security adviser Norberto Gonzales just recently aided in fueling these talks by suggesting that certain personalities be made to constitute a transition council. He floated the names of former president Joseph Estrada and another discredited name which I forgot while pandering on certain "sentiments" of some Cabinet members supportive of Mrs. Arroyo assuming that role herself. Gabby Claudio, the president's political adviser, quickly moved to quell the Gonzales proposition and tried to assuage the feelings of the counter-elite by assuring them that elections will push thru as planned. Yet, the very possibility of the 2010 seems hanging in the balance, what with certain quarters in Congress proposing for the passage of a charter change bill. As it stands, the measure is sure to be passed into law by April 13 since it only takes just one senator joining the unpopular fray just to make it real.

What is truly real is the plan of hawks within the palace, praying on fuelling the fires of inter-religious hatred in Mindanao to justify an expansion of the State of Emergency. Yes, there is a very serious terrorism problem in the area, but the sudden declaration of the State of Emergency belies the true plan which is to further enflame passions and force an assault leading to full-scale war.

The solution to the Jolo Hostage standoff is simple---convince the Amir or leader of the terrorist group to just free their hostages pronto. Yasser Igasan, the Amir of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) should consider releasing the hostages if they want to ascend a higher moral ground. Two reasons: first, these hostages are weighing them down. They can't fight with three innocent lives involved since this is actually a violation of the sacred rules of engagement in the Sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) and by the very Noble Qu'ran. Second, it is actually better for them to release the hostages immediately so that hostilities begin. Doing so follows the very principles of war stated in the Noble Qu'ran and the Sunnah of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH).

Having said that, hostilities will definitely break out anytime soon. The presence of thousands of policemen in Jolo and the purported stand down by the military show that these forces, the AFP and the ASG, are gearing for a showdown. Yet, this showdown is actually a "show" since we all know that some elements of the ASG follow their military handlers instead of their Amir.

War is definitely in the horizon not just in Sulu but in certain parts of Mindanao as well. Now, why is there such a plan in the area?

We all know that Mindanao is the third most popular place in the Philippines. Internationally, people know of Mindanao than, say, Iloilo. A breakout of hostilities there would surely attract international attention.

Now, while attention is focused on Mindanao, Arroyo's hatchet men will try to push for the passage of the bill. When it is passed, they will definitely defend it by allowing a challenge at the Supreme Court. Of course, the Highest Tribunal of the Land will say it is up to the challenge though everybody knows that there's not enough time to resolve this constitutional problem. Suggestions for either a term extension or this unpopular bogey called Gonzales Proposition would definitely be allowed some leeway for debate by which time, the state would have already prepared its forces for a standoff with cha-cha opponents. The result would probably be a two year extension of the date of the elections, again, a violation of the Constitution but would be justified by Malacanang with the pendency of a constitutional case before the Supreme Court.

The question is---will they be able to implement their plan, considering that there are an absence of a favorable external condition and a not-so-fiery internal atmosphere. Answer is simple---the state will force and ram the matter down our very throats. Now, should this happen, should there be sufficient counter-force against the present disposition? Answer is still in the negative.