Why is Aquino and Villar already tied in the presidential surveys?

Jay, a good friend, asked me why is that Senator Noynoy Aquino lost 8 percentage points in the latest presidential surveys and he is now statistically tied with Nacionalista party bet Manny Villar. THIS IS INSPITE OF THE FACT THAT 24% OF THE ELECTORATE FAVORS A CANDIDATE WHO IS NOT INVOLVED IN ANY GRAFT CASE AND HAS A VERY GOOD ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAM, TRAITS WHICH NOYNOY AQUINO DEFINITELY HAVE.

Jay, this is my explanation, based on my knowledge on sectoral and ground work and on political reality.

First, Noynoy is losing his traditional bailiwicks and hemorrhaging heavily in areas which were traditionally slanted in favor of the Liberal Party.

There are two (2) explanations behind this: he is losing the ground war and his communication/imaging teams are not helping support ground work.

Every one knows that the Manny Villar team already is mobilizing the best and the brightest grassroots organizers especially in the Luzon corridor. Villar is giving 45,000 pesos for regional coordinators, higher than any other candidate. These organizers have significant influence and numbers in these areas, especially in Northern, Central and Southern Luzon. Look at the latest Pulse Asia survey Jay and you'll find that Noynoy lost in these areas--SIGNIFICANTLY.

Second, Villar's communication teams are COMPLIMENTING ground work, by giving campaign materials and even penetrating barangays and urban poor communities with Manny Villar posters, streamers and leaflets. 

Every one knows that the Liberals are losing their generals and lieutenants and these people are crossing political lines and now working for Villar.

The second major reason is that Noynoy already LOST THE INITIATIVE and his EMOTIONAL CONNECTION with his traditional bailiwicks and those of the middle forces have been whittled especially with his latest television ad.

Manny Villar's TVC is infectious while Noynoy Aquino's latest TVC is funny and stupid, to say the least. It does not connect with the 24-44 age group. 

Noynoy Aquino's TVC shows him rapping the problems of the country away. How stupid! My age group hates rappers. 

This shows that marketing experts are doing a very stupid and damaging work for Noynoy. They are helping Villar, and not Noynoy Aquino. 

Imagine, you're in the lead and you want to IMMITATE THE SECOND LEAD BY SHOWING A TVC WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT TRAILING YOU? STUPID!!

Fact is, in branding, when you're leading, you do not fear. Only those who trail want to imitate the leader. The leader must be extremely confident of his position since that shows that you probably are doing something correct in the first place.

Hey Kris, please LEAVE POLITICS and just settle in your showbiz work. You are not cut out for this. POLITICAL ADS ARE DIFFERENT FROM PRODUCT ADS. 

Lastly, people are slowly realizing that is better to elect a new leader with a very concrete platform than elect someone who just wants to regain an old glory. 

When people of my age group saw Noynoy with the Makati Business Club members in Cebu, it evoked memories of Kamaganak Incorporated and Cory's cronies.

Those images are bringing back memories of corruption during Cory's time. As what I suggested a few entries ago, Noynoy should DISENGAGE HIMSELF from his mother's cabinet members and those of the Hyatt 10 and instead, SHOW NEW FACES.

People want NEW FACES IN GOVERNMENT. IT IS BEST THAT NOYNOY CONSIDERS PRESENTING ATTY. ALEX LACSON or other POLITICAL NEOPHYTES IN THE LIBERAL SLATE more than those traditional political personalities running under the party. 

If the strategic thinkers within Noynoy's group refuses to acknowledge this reality and instead, remain stubborn and stupid, they will eventually lose this war and blame themselves for losing the initiative.