Mubarak leaves Cairo with family

After eighteen days of standoff, Egyptian President Muhammad Hosni Mubarak left Egypt with his entire family. 


This came as a shock since a few days earlier, Mubarak vowed to stay in power until September, when he finishes his constitutional term of office. Mubarak's obstinence has angered Washington, which said that Mubarak must "cut and cut cleanly". Yesterday, Mubarak handed his power over to his vice president Sulaiman. 


It is not known if Mubarak actually left Egypt or has chosen to stay in one of his villas at the city's outskirts. If the reports are true that Mubarak has now relinquished power, this will be greeted with joy by millions of Egyptians who wanted Mubarak and his National Democratic Party thrown out of power for mismanaging the economy. Main opposition leader Elbaradei earlier warned that Mubarak's continued rule will further deepen the split in Egyptian society.


Egyptians coldly welcomed news of Sulaiman's ascendancy to Mubarak's post, saying that Sulaiman owes Mubarak "too much" that he'll just continue the misguided policies of the discredited regime. The people, reports say, wanted nothing but the abolition of Mubarak's party and the vestiges of his rule.


Yet, it would take a great amount of time, maybe even decades, before the people successfully cleanse Egyptian society of Mubarak's leadership thumb prints. The strongman's 30 year rule is nothing to sneeze at. 


Egyptians should take a cue from the Philippine "revolt" in 1986. Filipinos thought that their "peaceful revolt" would take them on a higher level of development. It turned out that after twenty five years, the same societal and economic ills that the former regime encountered that led to its downfall, remained the country's most serious challenges. 


Systemic changes do not occur overnight. Democracies that underwent strongman rule usually take a great deal of time fixing itself. The reason is simple--the transition, if not done properly, results to a further fragmentation of society. Those who ruled with the strongman usually assumes power themselves, and rule with the same misguided and with the same impunity as that of the former dispensation. Those who revolted, but was never members of the ruling or non-ruling elites are left holding an empty bag. Serious reformers are usually relegated in the sidelines, while the "real powers" take the country in the same route as that taken by the discredited regime. 


The reason for such problems lie in the composition of that country's elites. Real changes happen when the elites of a country are totally eradicated or are "reformed".


For example, China underwent a very deep and serious societal restructuring after the 1949 revolution. A totally different political party assumed power over other political parties. This political party espouses a different ideology, which dictates the eradication of the status quo and the implantation of another. The process of displacement was not peaceful--it was totally disruptive. When a society is disrupted, the old ways slowly disappear and new modes of doing things are introduced. A new system is introduced out of the old. 


Cuba also went under a serious cycle of disruption until it reached a period of normalcy. Other countries, such as Vietnam which replicated the same process as that of China's, is now reaping the fruits of years of societal, economic and political transformation.


IN the Philippines, the same can actually be done if the present administration leads the rest of the people in an honest-to-goodness revolutionary process.  This administration can start by shaking the foundations of elite rule. If this administration successfully impresses upon a segment of the elite that it means business, the result will either be: self-reformation or stagnation. When members of a nation's elite realizes the need for reform at the risk of physical harm, they start to act accordingly. 


This leads us to another issue---when a new elite emerges from the old, the new ones normally act in a more impune manner than the old. To avoid such things from happening, elite groups should really be eradicated and replaced by new ones from a new mold. This is only possible if that society undergoes a very serious revolutionary process, which usually involves shedding of blood.