Fearless Forecast: Senate will vote 17-5 in favor of Merceditas Gutierrez' Impeachment

It's quite certain that the lower chamber will definitely pass the articles of impeachment against Ombudsman Merceditas Gutierrez to their counterpart, the Senate. The Senate will become the final battle ground for the embattled Ombudsman. This, I think, will not go the route ala Erap, since this is not about the presidency. 


This is more of a political show, characterized by vendetta and perceived underperformance of the strongest ally of the former dispensation. 


Seven senators are expected to heed President Noynoy Aquino's call against Gutierrez. These are the Liberal block led by Franklin Drilon, Kiko Pangilinan, Teofisto Guingona, Serge Osmena, Francis Chiz Escudero, Ralph Recto and Antonio Trillianes.


To impeach Merci, the Senate must muster 15 or 16 Senators voting for her impeachment. Actually, when Congress passes the articles of impeachment, technically, Gutierrez has already been impeached. What the Senate must do is affirm the recommendation of its co-equal chamber basing on the pieces of evidence to be presented before it.


Four Senators already expressed their disapproval of Gutierrez's impeachment and these are: Senators Miriam Defensor-Santiago, pseudo-corruption crusader Jokey err Joker Arroyo, Lito Lapid and Bong Revilla. Revilla has just been voted as Lakas national president. 


Pro-impeachment senators need nine more senators to back them up. 


The following have not publicly shown their cards yet and these are Senators Loren Legarda (Nacionalista), Pia Cayetano (Nacionalista), Alan Peter Cayetano (Nacionalista), Bongbong Marcos (Nacionalista), Senate President Juan Ponce-Enrile (UNO), Gregorio Honasan (UNO), Jinggoy Estrada (PMP-LABAN/UNO), Vicente Sotto III (Nacionalista), Juan Miguel Zubiri (Lakas) and Manny Villar (Nacionalista). The "kicker" is Senator Panfilo Lacson who remains at large.


The Nacionalistas comprise the biggest group of Senators not yet decided on what fate will they bestow upon the embattled Ombudsman. However, basing on their previous statements and actions, especially during those public hearings on controversial issues involving the Ombudsman in the past, it seems that, yes, there is a sizeable number of Senators who are expected to vote in favor of the impeachment.


These are: Alan Peter Cayetano (who headed the Blue Ribbon committee and has recommended the filing of charges against certain personalities before the Ombudsman), his sister Pia Cayetano, Senator Loren Legarda, Juan Ponce-Enrile, Gregorio Honasan, Jinggoy Estrada, Vicente Sotto III, Manny Villar and possibly, Ed Angara.


Reason---most of them are re-electionists and they don't want to smear their names by being the ones accused of extending the term of an unpopular Ombudsman. Those who'll vote against this impeachment have nothing to lose especially Arroyo, Santiago, Zubiri and Revilla. They are two termers and are not expected to campaign come 2013. 


Juan Miguel Zubiri may toe the Lakas party line and vote behind Lapid, Santiago, Arroyo and Revilla. Probably, if Bongbong Marcos sees that majority of the Nacionalistas voted against Gutierrez, the young Marcos will also go the way of the majority vote.


So, the final tally would then be 17-5, even without the elusive Ping Lacson.


Merceditas should either pack her bags now by resignation or pack her things later through a humiliating route. It's her choice.