Bombings are really GRP-AFP-MILF CC initiated attacks against BFFM

President Noynoy Aquino yesterday ordered a swift bombing of critical areas within MILF control considered as sanctuaries of lawless elements there. The target? A remote village in Zamboanga Sibugay where lawless elements are believed hiding from the law. And when we say, "lawless elements now" these include rogue MILF members responsible for the ambush of soldiers there. Another operation is now being conducted in Basilan, where 19 soldiers were believed killed by MILF and Abu Sayyaf Group members.


Notice that government is now distinguishing two sets of MILF members: one, those who are under the control of the Central Committee and the other termed as "rogue". Who are these elements? 


It seems that they are mostly members of the splinter group, Bangsamoro Freedom Fighters Movement (BFFM) who separated from the main group when it disagreed with the main position of the MILF, that is, talk peace with the Philippine government. Without really describing them as BFFM, government seems to be conducting a psywar operations meant to hide the real problem right now---the rising strength of the MILF splinter group who want nothing but secede from the Philippines.


Former MNLF chief Nur Misuari is right---seventy percent or even more of the members of the MILF are now with Imam Ambril Umbra Kato, the commander who severed his ties with the Central Committee and refuses to honor what the MILF had committed with government.


Former US ambassador to the Philippines Kristie Kenney already predicted this late last 2007 during her visits to the camps. The main problem is not the MILF leadership agreeing to a peace process, says Kenney, but its capability of enforcing such agreements to the bulk of MILF members who were indoctrinated by former MILF head Imam Hashim Salamat to accept nothing more than independence from "Imperial" Manila. This space already articulated this problem in 2009-2010, shortly prior to the transition to a new administration.


What is occurring now in greater speed is the severage of communication and ideological links between ground troops critical of the MILF Central leadership and the Murad-led group controlling the formal structures of the rebel organisation.


For most MILF members, Murad is not being recognized as an effective and trust-worthy leader. Murad is a political operator, a player in the true sense of the word. He is perceived to be playing in the hands of Manila's negotiators. He is being compared with the late Imam Salamat who is an ideological, political and military leader. According to MILF members, the late Imam is an epitomy of a true Bangsamoro leader. 


Imam Umbra Kato has now taken the leadership position insofar as MILF ground troops are concerned because of the inability of Murad to provide effective leadership. Like Salamat, Kato is a political, ideological and religious leader. What's more--Kato also fights with his MILF troops. He is a complete Bangsamoro fighter, based on the perception of many MILF members. 


The thing about Kato is he is not politically pliant. He has one thing in his mind--independence from Imperial Manila. 


The solution is really provide a most acceptable framework for the MILF. There are really three (3) options left for the GRP to solve the Bangsamoro Question.


First, do not appoint a political player as helm of the ARMM. Transform the ARMM into a highly effective and efficient organisation which would be the platform of the Bangsamoro in changing the socio-economic and political environment. ARMM is still a viable alternative to existing structures provided that those who will lead it will not have the same mindset as those from Manila, and that is, use the ARMM as a political tool only and not an economic tool, which is what it is. 


Second, provide for a mechanism where "rogue" elements of the MILF and the MILF Central leadership would be able to iron out their differences. This mechanism could be provided by third party mediators such as the US, Malaysia or even Great Britain. Kato should be convinced by the Central Leadership to abandon such an enterprise so that whatever agreement the Bangsamoro leadership enters into, it will be respected by MILF ground troops as well. Otherwise, it is useless talking peace with these Moro rebels, since de-militarization will not take place after all the talks.


Lastly, consider the possibility of an all-out, drawn out, protracted war.