2014---what to expect and what is it for us?

According to the Chinese, we are galloping straight into the Year of the Horse. The year of the Horse is the seventh sign in the Chinese zodiac and this year's is described as the dark horse. Others describe it as a dark, wooden horse. Officially, the Year of the Horse starts on February 4, 2014, the first day of the Tiger month.

In the Chinese element group, the Horse sign belongs to the fire group, similar with the Dog and Tiger. The Horse is the strongest among the three. When they combine, they produce the strongest fire and too much fire is destructive.

Correctly, the Year of the Horse is what is described as the year of the Year of the Green Wood Horse. 2014 is a Yang year, meaning highly positive things will happen.

For those whose lucky element is wood, or earth, and fire, they are lucky this year. President Benigno S. Aquino's lucky element is wood, so things will be better for him next year than this year's. Will he be able to overcome the mounting political challenges of his career?

The Year of the Horse is all about economics and finance, so expect good fortune for next year. This means more investments for the Philippines, more people taking risks. Let's talk about risks---don't take too much of it because this year will bring luck to those who minimize their risks and bad fortune to gamblers or those who risk all just to take more money.

On the political front...

This year is all about change, since if you number everything here, it sums to 7. 7 is a mystical number. It means change.

Does it mean that we expect a major political change in our country by next year? Seems likely. For one, other countries in the region, particularly Thailand is undergoing a governmental change. Is the Philippines next in line?

One thing to remember here--it is in the interest of the Big Powers to make this country under a stronger management. Three events determine whether a change in administration is necessary or not for this country.

One, engagement with China. Will a change in administration help the Big Powers in neutralizing the growing Chinese threat? China has been aggressive this year, even taunting Japan, a strong ally of the United States. If China pursues its militarist stance in the region, specifically those small islets in the Western Palawan sea, then, expect a stronger presence of US troops here in the Philippines. Is this the reason why a former CIA official now heads the US diplomatic corps here in the Philippines?

Two, wider and stronger economic presence of US firms in the Philippines attracts a more engaged stance as far as the US government is concerned. Large US firms have taken root in this country. Their interests range from resource mining to investment optimization. Financial analysts expect a major recovery in terms of the global economy by next year. When US and European firm investments leave our shores, what then, will become of the Philippines? Will it lead to a bubble burst, which some analysts predict? Will this impact on major property-led development?

Three, regional market integration. It seems likely that our country will just become a dumping ground of goods, since developments in the urban and rural areas point to a mushrooming of distribution outlets or centers (meaning "malls") instead of developing industries to compete with other industries in the region.

Serious geo-political events are expected to rock the Asia-Pacific region this year, one of which is the ASEAN integration. This year begins serious preparations for 2015.

By 2015, economies belonging to the ASEAN will open itself up freely from tariff. Goods will now freely penetrate the markets of those belonging to the ASEAN leading to a freer, more open and integrated market economy.

What this means is whoever has the strongest industrial complex, whoever has the marketing savvyness and whoever has the most funds to expand their distribution networks, wins the game.

Obviously, we are headed towards becoming a full consumerist economy since we lack an industrial complex. We do not produce our own metal products, we are just a resource and a dumping ground of finished metal products.

Obviously, with zero tariff, what gains will the country gets with integration? Fiercer competition, yes, but will it lead to a better condition, like spurring Filipino entrepreneurs to develop their own and  pose competition with others?

Market integration has both plus and minuses. It is a plus because Filipino products will be able to enter other markets as freely as they enter ours. Local companies will be able to further expand their presence in ASEAN, serving other hitherto, unknown territories with similar needs and requirements. Those with better managed finances will heap success. Those with limited or narrow views about this, will obviously meet defeat and eventual, death.

Market integration likewise obliterates the distinction between "imported goods" and "local goods". All will just be treated as "goods" regardless where it was manufactured.

Hence, companies with a global or universalist mindset will win the competition, edging those whose concentration is just "local penetration." Freer markets also pose a plus for manufacturers of indigenous products. Imagine, a lettuce grown in the highlands of Banaue will find its way in the Australian markets, and given the proper marketing strategy, stands a better chance of being sold than those produced in, say, New Zealand.

Integration gets a minus mark when big-item goods are concerned. For example, construction materials. Filipino companies will be able to buy big-ticket construction materials from China but conversely, will be hard put selling them the same stuff, since we don't have a strong industrial complex.

For weaker and poorly managed economies, market integration is like a Trojan Horse. When it enters a market, it kills it when competition is absent.

In our case, two agencies must be properly manage when integration happens--the Department of Trade and Industry and the Department of Finance. There are adequate safety nets and laws existing that protect Filipino industries from being eaten up by regional competitors. The question is, and again, we go to the very basic problem or scourge that has affected us from the very beginning of our Republic---graft and corruption.

In a freer yet fiercer market, winning the competition requires a major engagement with governments.  A corrupt government harms local companies since graft allows a flexing of rules meant to protect local companies. If our government shows a tendency to bend the rules just to accommodate private economic interests, then, we are surely headed towards destroying our very own.

A destroyed and fully dominated market shows signs of acquisce. Just look at one's grocery. When a grocery is full of "imported stuff" and none of the local ones or a minimal number exist, then, that market has already become a full consumerist market instead of a competitive one.

Will we allow ourselves to become just a consumerist market instead of a producer?

Other countries see us as just a consumer one, a strong one in fact, 90 million plus and growing. We must ensure that we develop ourselves as a producer as well.

The best bet right now is for us to become a manufacturer or producer of finished metal and agricultural products. Let us just concentrate on developing the means towards building a highly industrialized metal industry, something more advanced than others.

We have the resources. What we lack are processing plants. Instead of us shipping those metal ores to China, why not develop our own here?

Likewise, let us become the number one producer of finished agricultural products. Centralize and integrate every single agri market into one and let the state infuse technology so that these goods will be of standard fare in every market out there. Hey, the world needs to eat.

This means more funds to develop our industries for these to become regionally competitive. It means more efficient tax collection. It means government transforming itself more as a corporate entity than just a clearing house.

Now comes the challenge--government must always pursue the national interest, rather than always doing a balancing act.

It is to the national interest that it creates more jobs. It is to the national interest that it lowers poverty incidence. It is to the best national interest to provide a better quality of life to all.

Like other nationalities, the Filipinos desire one thing--a better quality of life. This means having the means to provide food on the table, having the means to buy a house to keep himself and his family safe and securing himself from threats and risks to life.

For this to happen, government must take on the challenge squarely by eliminating the causes why economic gains do not trickle down to the masses. Graft is one.

The solution is really re-engineering the system so that the gains being amassed by a few trickle down to the needy majority. Some proposes the slow process--legislation. Others have a different view.

Assessing the current situation, it is to the best interest of the Filipino to re-structure society through a people-led campaign. Let us eliminate an inefficient government. We need a stronger government to be able to withstand and survive these geo-political developments which will be at our doorsteps beginning next year.

If we don't act fast, developments will eat us up and if it does, we will see our society slowly crumbling under the weight of capitalist greed.