Saturday, May 7, 2016

May 9 elections scenarios

A source told this writer that the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) had already made plans for a worse case scenario this coming election. What are those scenarios?

First, wide spread public perception of electoral fraud which could lead to the proclamation of an unacceptable candidate or an announcement of a failure of elections. A failure of elections scenario would surely affect law and order. People would surely go out of their homes and militate.

What is an unacceptable scenario? An unacceptable scenario is when the administration candidate Mar Roxas wins in this election even at the slimmest of margins. As I wrote in this space many moons ago, no one would believe that Roxas would win this election even in the cleanest and most credible elections. Why? Because the political opposition has successfully convinced the public that there is widespread disapprobation of this administration. Even this administration admitted it--that there is such a thing as an "anti-establishment vote."

Another scenario is the outbreak of violence on a national-scale. This will likewise justify a failure of elections. Surely, in these two scenarios, there is reason for the Chief Executive to call out the Armed Forces to bring back law and order.

It is already clear that it is likewise unacceptable for this administration that a Duterte wins this election. Even the president himself already tagged Duterte as a "clear threat to democracy." This statement is really uncalled for, especially coming from an out-going president who is supposed to maintain neutrality.

Pnoy probably did not consider the ill effects of his announcement against Duterte. For one, it laid bare his true political leanings which clearly opens the possibility of this administration using its resources to support its candidate.

Worse, political allies of this administration most notably the Magdalos of Senator Antonio Trillanes IV have likewise laid bare their true political leaning--two candidates, namely Mar Roxas and Grace Poe.

It is now very clear to all that Roxas and Poe are proxy candidates of this administration. And there are two candidates who remain anti-establishment---Duterte and Vice president Jejomar Binay.

In a possible show of forces, clearly, there would emerge two groups with armed components: the "anti-establishment" composed of retired generals, officials of three previous administrations, a faction of the Magdalos allied with Duterte and a faction of the RAM/Guardians. On the "state-side", the Magdalos only. Who bears the support of the original RAM/Guardians? Of course, it is Vice president Jejomar Binay.