Duterte Ouster Plot: Real or Just Imaginings?

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte recently accused members of the Liberal Party and those from the Communist Party of the Philippines in a conspiracy to cause his downfall. Though unaware of any specific information about an ouster plot, Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez vows to not "take it (ouster plot) sitting down"

After days of denying any "ouster plot", the AFP eventually says there is an existing threat. The AFP describes them as "red...and those in Mindanao." see link. 

As response to this, Justice secretary Vitaliano Aguirre and even Public Attorney's Office (PAO) chief Persida Acosta led the launching of a "Citizen's National Guard" (CNG) which vows to defend Duterte from any ouster move. 

Aguirre, in an interview, describes the CNG as a group composed of retire members of the military, lawyers, Muslims, and several others to what Aguirre says, "..thwart the moves of the opposition to oust the president". see link.

Now, what can be gleaned from these statements? Is there really an ouster plot against Duterte? Why are members of this administration losing sleep over an ouster campaign?

Duterte himself says he's tired. Duterte himself says he's not "kapit tuko". Duterte himself says he is ready to resign and retire. Yet, why is his allies so paranoid like him? 

Two reasons: first, maybe they are doing something illegal already that they fear of prosecution the minute Mr. Duterte loses his post and second, they fear for their lives the minute a group succeeds in ousting Mr. Duterte from Malacanan. 

These are legitimate reasons for paranoia. Let me however posit these thoughts.

First, whoever is plotting an ouster move must be joking. It's already October. One cannot muster enough warm bodies to mobilize for a move like that. Filipinos are preparing for Christmas. Most thoughts are about raising enough monies for noche buena. 

Second, next year is election year already. Those who aspire for a national post would be campaigning already for the 2019 elections. The people will then be busy with their own lives come next year. 

The same argument used by the Gloria Arroyo minions will waif in the air by next year--why use extra constitutional means when the elections are near and one can use this to replace Duterte? 

2019 is most critical and crucial for Mr. Duterte. This will show if he's still politically strong or relevant or not anymore. 

So, is there a legitimate cause of concern?

When the AFP mentioned the "reds" and those from Mindanao, you somehow expect it already since these two armed groups have been our country's perennial destabilizers. Nothing new. 

How about these yellowtards? Well, of course. They are the minority. Whoever is at the bottom will aspire for the top. But, to move in an armed confrontation with Duterte, I think these people are not as stupid as we think they are. 

Honestly, I think these destabilization rumors are being fueled by the opposition to weaken the Duterte administration politically. And these dimwitted allies of this president are taking the bait. Or are they just doing that to get national attention?

I think yes since there are indications that Aguirre and especially Acosta are salivating for nominations from PDP-Laban as the party's official senatorial candidates. 

Just a few days ago, Senate president Koko Pimentel announced a preliminary list of people whom he thinks would suit perfectly fine as their party's senatoriables. 

Likewise, I think several staunch allies of Duterte namely his Assistant secretary Mocha Uson and this character RJ Nieto are fueling these rumors for their own personal interests.

Mocha is rumored to be preparing for a run for the Senate while Nieto intends to capitalize his newly found popularity via the Senate probe to gain more political clients. That's what several people are saying about these two people.

I remember one candidate who always get 99-98% awareness. He is extremely popular but failed to get elected as senator due to his 19% conversion rate. 

This is a lesson to would-be politicians--you may be extremely popular for the wrong reasons. 

You may have a purported mass base of 5 million but that number may actually be just an illusion. It may even represent the number of people who hate your guts but views your blog because they want to be informed of your latest antics.

Poor Mr. Duterte. He is being used left and right by people who have ulterior motives, particularly those within his Cabinet who aspire for elected posts. I remember Mr. Duterte discouraging members of his cabinet on this thing. They may serve, he said, but not to get an endorsement for a political post or gain popularity using their positions.

So there. 

Mr. Duterte upon reading this, should start sleeping. Don't lose sleep Mr. President, no one is conspiring against you. Probably what you see especially at night are spirits of those who died tragically, victims of corrupt cops or what you term "collateral damages."