Collective Action Against Creeping Dictatorship in the Philippines

It is quite surprising for me to realize that groups in the Philippines are somewhat dependent on the trust, popularity or performance rating of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte before they unleash collective action against his administration. This predilection to surveys is utterly stupid and erroneous.

For one, even popular leaders such as Duterte could actually be toppled by a well organized movement of people from different socio-economic classes and persuasions. Class analysis is inadequate as an analytical basis for collective action. Most revolutionary action depends on the loss of trust and rule and of how risks and threats are perceived on a personal level by individuals. These are mostly perceptions, amplified by media platforms.

Charles Tilly in his book, " From mobilization to Revolution" writes that movements are dependent not on extraneous circumstances but on internal ones. Five major elements should actually be existing prior to collective action may commence: interests, organization, mobilization, opportunity and collective action itself. I guess that these anti-Duterte groups are always focusing on the element of "opportunity" here.

Opportunity, as defined by Tilly, is the relationship of the group with the external environment. When measuring political upheavals and discontent, movers always rely on surveys which can actually be taken or interpreted whichever you are in the ideological or political spectrum. Surveys rarely show actual sentiments of oppressed people. Do you really expect Filipinos living in unsafe and impoverished communities who are constantly harassed by state security forces to actually tell pollsters what they feel about their government? The situation in squatter communities is likened to a war zone where violence is the norm, and the articulation of such an opposition to the prevailing condition could actually lead to physical harm, even death.

What is happening right is the effective polarization of the Philippine society not based on class, but based on where individuals get their information. For members of the middle class whose main sources of information rests on social media and television, the daily violence experienced by those in the D-E are simply not articulated up to the level of personal dissatisfaction. Filipinos who belong to the managerial up to senior management levels are unable to really discern actual events occurring at grassroots levels simply due to the inability of media platforms in covering such acts of violence. However, when reports of violence transcend grassroots levels and involve already violence heaped upon members of higher income groups, these creates the opportunities for higher articulation from opposition groups.

One example is TRAIN law, which effects are cutting across socio-economic groups. Higher prices of commodities and of inflation are affecting large groups of people that, its further implementation could lead to a higher stage of political upheaval never before seen in Philippine history.

Instead of waiting for Mr. Duterte's ratings to drop, those who want him out should focus more on the strength of collective will among them, logistical resources allocation, and the existence of an alternative government. Evidently, this administration is heading towards self-destruction what with its isolationist tendencies, its outward disregard towards differing views and its support for violent means in resolving peace and order problems.

The more violence as employed by the state happen, the more this administration lose the trust of critical sectors of society. What is just useful for surveys is it is showing a steady trend--- of Mr. Duterte's mass base fragmenting, and of opposition to his rule consolidating.