Will the AFP again break tradition?

In its history, the Armed Forces of the Philippines counts the last years of the nineteen eighties as the period of great distress. A new political power emerged after ousting the 14-year old rule of the Marcoses. The Marcos regime fell due to succession problems. The strongman got himself a Lupus and was unable to clearly chart the path to be taken by his regime. His sickness though never clouded his resolve to further his power yet clearly his equally ambitious young allies were just waiting in the wings, waiting for the ripe time to act.

And the time did came when millions stormed the gates of Camps Crame and Aguinaldo and demanded the ouster of the strongman. This did not happen due to the political machinations of the liberal opposition. This came as an off-shoot of an internal power struggle within Marcos' circle. When news came that the old man was thinking of prolonging the term of an usurper in the person of the old man's cousin, and the entire reins of government was to be handed over to his wife, these actions were interpreted as a betrayal of those who supported him from the very beginning. Hence, a political break did happen which resulted to the phenomenon called EDSA Revolution.

The very same political malaise exists in these days, as the political hegemon tries to salvage his fast losing reputation due to unmet promises. The old man knows his politics--and is always ready to shuffle his cards and play them. Unlike his predecessors, this man is known for his maverick strategies. He knows his law and has the fortitude of wills honed by decades of political involvement.

However, like his idol, this old man is being weakened by pains. He can't think straight and most of his functions were delegated early on to others whose interests are diametrically opposed to his. As he publicly announce his weaknesses, malevolent forces are now consolidating their forces for an eventual take-over regardless of whether it follows the Constitution or not. Some of those salivating for this comes in two sizes: the first ones tend to idealize the situation and thinks they have the skills to actualize their dreams and the second, those who clearly wanted nothing more than raid the public coffers.

In all of these, the men in uniform observe with caution. The establishment is also being weakened by internal wrangling, made worse by graft and corruption being tolerated by those occupying top posts. Yes, this was always the case yet let me remind those who forget their history that, at one period in the AFP's history, the establishment got itself rehabilitated and rid itself of misfits albeit, in exchange of a very turbulent period of political sacrifice.

The very stability of our country rests on the shoulders of our armed forces. However, its fate is inextricably linked with those of the political leadership. A weak political leadership impacts greatly on the capabilities of the Armed Forces to fight and conduct its wars.

Military intervention is an option being considered by many within the AFP. The experiences of other states however, prevents them from moving against the very state leadership. It was I think Sam Huntington who wrote that military regimes do not last long because those from the military to occupy political positions are incompetent and are unable to manage. The AFP organization differs from the bureaucracy and force is not always an option to be taken when managing such a graft ridden bureaucracy. The values of soldiery clash with civilian values and it would be foolhardy to assume that a military takeover of civilian functions would solve rising inflation and economic problems.

However, the window of opportunity is fast closing and the exigency of the times call for fast decision making. What then are those before us?

1. The people will not allow the political comeback of the Liberals--that is as certain as day. The Liberals have failed the people. It would take a long time before these Liberals regain their previous moral reputation.

2. The political environment does not anymore reflect a fight between two contending forces. It is not as simple as what defined the pre-EDSA 1986 conditions. There are no strong political personalities contending for power. Handlers of Vice President Leni Robredo tries to put her in the game but their efforts are not bearing any fruits. There will be chaos if Robredo ascends the presidency before Mr. Duterte's term ends.

3. Those who prescribe a different form of government are now moving thru public funds. They occupy posts in government which they use in propelling their cause to its logical conclusion. The problem is their very presence threatens the livelihood of those close to the Powers, and these ambitious people are just waiting for the last political gasp before they also move for their own selfish interests.

Another problem is really not about the possibility of ouster but the possibility of maintaining order and creating public support post-Duterte. Since there are no big political personalities capable of creating favorable public support behind an alternative government sans Duterte, the possibility of a prolonged armed engagement exists.

What people are debating about is the creation of a bloodless transition of power, which to my mind, is also fraught with danger because of the existence of political forces within the Duterte circle who oppose such an early transition. An early transition being proposed by Mr. Duterte itself frustrates the plans of his close political associates now ensconced in their own sinecures whose interests solely rest in massing more political capital (meaning more monies).

What is the best solution?

The best solution is really consolidation of all Patriotic forces those who belong to the civilian sector whose interests lie on just correcting this fast deteriorating situation.

The issue is simply mismanagement of the government. Mr. Duterte, for all his bravado and his wit, is simply unable to dispense his functions properly due to the enormity of the problem. Mr. Duterte faces extremely powerful forces whose interests are mostly corporeal and personal. These exploiters are profiting from the situation and are acting with wanton disregard of the law.

Mr. Duterte must open his eyes and address this situation squarely. While his PNP takes care of these drug syndicates, Mr. Duterte should mobilize his forces and neutralize these carpet baggers and cartel people and smite them to smithereens. Of course, Mr. Duterte realizes that the minute he does that, he incurs enemies who are equally as bad ass as he thinks he is. Nevermind that, since Mr. Duterte is nearing his Creator anyway and what is a sacrifice more noble than that of country?

If Mr. Duterte is really the person he so professes in public, he should abandon his prosecutorial style and act presidential by issuing arrest orders to these exploiters and put them behind bars. Mr. Duterte should direct his guns against economic saboteurs, smugglers and cartel guys, shame them, publicly expose them and put them in chains.

Mr. Duterte should also clean house and fire these nincompoops at the DA, DTI and agencies related to our food security. These people should be replaced by experts and technocrats who know how to solve the problem.

Mr. Duterte thinks he is a bully? Then bully these oligarchs, these shameless exploiters, these cartel guys and all these grafters who profit from the misery of millions!

Otherwise, Mr. Duterte being the Dirty Harry whom we all ascribe him to be, is really just a braggart without balls. All of the senseless verbal fire none of the actual fury.

When this situation comes to a head by October, then, by all means, those who love this Country must act decisively.