JDV's Revelation--a dud?

Two days ago, the Philippine Daily Inquirer got the bait and released JDV's bold prediction: the Arroyo administration will fall if he testifies before the Senate on the anomalous ZTE deal. In a matter-of-factly, the former Speaker proclaimed that he knows everything about the deal. And he'll reveal it in the proper time.

This is the last statement made after previous statements of opposition figures emerged in the last few weeks prior to the expected fireworks in the resurrected ZTE Senate probe. However, I hate to say it, but the Speaker's claim that his revelation will bring down this regime is...well..dubious.

One, the timing is off. He should have said this at the height of the controversy. Why did it took him months before this epiphany? When after all things have been said and done, here comes JDV positioning himself as the man of the hour. Right now, people, like myself, are doubting about JDV's integrity and the clarity of his objective. What prodded him to tell the world about this now? Is this his way of again, pressing for favors before the palace? We know JDV to be another wheeler-dealer. Is there another compromise, former Speaker? Is this some sort of attempt to pressure or even gain some favours given that you're now, out of power?

When you were speaker, you had that great chance to help your suffering people improve their lives by just allowing those impeachment complaints to pass the test of validity. Yet, you thumbed them down.

You had the chance to pass legislation that would shield us from cha-cha, yet you allowed this ghost to haunt us until now and even gave additional powers to the one that deposed you.

How sure are the people that what you are doing now is really above board?

Second, JDV's image and reputation has been destroyed beyond redemption. He does'nt have the savvy swagger of a Chavit nor the PR naturalese of a Mary Ong to pull this regime down. People still see him as your average Joe the Trapo. His handlers, whoever they are, failed to cleanse his name.

Lastly, probably a few people will rally behind JDV for one simple reason--he's not a charismatic leader. He does'nt have a proven track record in boosting the morale of people. In fact, ask his provincemates and they'll tell you that Joe dances with Europeans and Americans more than he dances with them in their regular Saturday parties.

It would take more than a JDV revelation to bring down this regime. It'll take an honest revolution of the intellectual entrepreneur to change this system and jail these pseudo-leaders including JDV and install a Council of Intellectual Capitalists.

Arroyo's Chavit

Former speaker Joe de Venecia's wife Gina allegedly texted Congressman Mikey Arroyo last year. The text was a question. It was a question of motives. Gina was asking Mikey why they want to oust her husband from power. That text reportedly prompted the Arroyos to move against the speaker.

Such rumors are humorous. I don't believe that that was the reason why JDV was ousted. I believe that Congressmen allied with JDV received huge sums of money amounting to at least 1 million pesos to support the ouster move. Likewise, I believe that JDV was removed because (a) JDV was cornering the huge multi-million dollar deals at the DOTC (Northrail, etal) and (b) JDV will never agree on cha-cha if he'll not become the first prime minister.

There are interesting things about this whole thing that needs some mentioning:

(a) JDV's posturings show that he is gearing for a major, serious dig at the center of power with the help of the opposition. JDV will rock this administration with his exposes, like what Chavit did during the time of Estrada. All these things have the hallmark of EDSA 2. JDV is now serving as Arroyo's Chavit. But, for what reason?

There is a higher agenda behind all these moves. And the agenda is the establishment of a Thai-type of governance either during this month or before the end of Esperon's term. Mark my words.

The group of JDV and the Arroyos have been gearing for war since late last year. And it was not because of ZTE. At stake is the bragging rights of becoming the major political force of this country.

Joey's revelation ala Chavit--GMA must stand down

The ZTE deal is becoming a family squabble. You have the son of the Speaker talking against the spouse of the most powerful official of the land. You have both the wife and their children ganging up against the Speaker's son. Lines are slowly being drawn. I agree with some analysts--the relationship of both the Speaker and the President is now strained. But if you analyze it more closely, this controversy did not precipitate the strain. This relationship has been strained before the elections. Last elections, the Speaker nearly lost his congressional fight when administration allies ganged up on him. When he wrested that one in Pangasinan, another close ally of the president tried, yet failed, to dislodge him from the speakership. So, there is really nothing to lose at this point because their political relationship has since been severed by all of these attempts at destroying JDV's political career.

What we're now seeing is a purely public display of that strained relations. The question that needs to be answered is whether or not the Speaker is behind all of these. Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago asked that question two days ago, when she verbalized her disgusts against the Speakers' son, Joey. Santiago asked that there must be some sinister hands behind the revelation of Joey. Her paranoia has basis. You see, in Philippine politics, nothing happens without the expressed consent of the elite. I'm sure that JDV camp has given Joey their tacit approval of the expose. However, we need to contextualize this issue and look at it as an important component of a bigger political game.

What's at stake for both camps?

There's an uncanny resemblance between what Chavit did in 2000 with that of today's revelation of Joey's. First, Chavit came out of the woodwork entering the last quarter of 2000, when he accused former president Erap as the one behind plans for him to be assassinated. Chavit bravely exposed Erap's alleged corruption also in the Senate.

Joey's revelation also has that kind of tenor. Joey said that he's been receiving death threats from government officials. He fingered DOTC Secretary Leandro Mendoza as the one behind those threats he's been receiving after he came out of his expose. Joey's fears has basis. Mendoza is the head of the generals' "mafia" in government, and Mendoza's group is known for doing "special operations" against their enemies.

In 2000, Chavit went to the media and used the Fourth estate in his fight against Erap. He also gamely went to Congress and Senate and exposed Erap's "indiscretions". Joey also used this tactic. He first went to his father's media friend, columnist Jarius Bondoc, and revealed what happened. As early as last year, Bondoc has been writing about the ZTE story, but no one really took notice. ZTE officials ignored Bondoc's allegations and did not even tried to counter them. That was their mistake because ZTE allowed their enemies to "work the ground", so to speak, allowing Amsterdam Holdings Incorporated to gain time in getting the media at their side. Now, AHI and the powers behind it, are now in a very powerful position. They have dictated the tempo eversince and no amount of crisis management can ever be done to sway public opinion now.

When Chavit lambasted the palace, everybody gravitated towards him, including the counter-elite. Chavit became the focal point of the anti-Erap movement. Now, with Joey's revelations, the question remains--will the counter-elite gravitate to him? That remains to be seen.

As I wrote here, the failure of anti-GMA groups to court middle class support is the main reason why all of their attempts failed. The middle class remains unconvinced that now is the right time to oust Gloria. With this controversy becoming nastier and more sinister, will this be the one which will finally convince the middle forces to stand up against Gloria? Will the Philippine business community stand up against Gloria or will they just stay silent and wait for this controversy to simmer down?

I am sure that there are furious negotiations between the camps of GMA and JDV specifically on how to effectively manage this situation and avoid a spillage. I fear though that maybe, just maybe, the two camps have already ended negotiations. What prodded JDV to cancel his trip to the Netherlands? Reports say that the First Gentleman went there on the eve of Joey's revelation. Wagging tongues reveal that FG went there purposely to meet with the Speaker and discuss this brouhaha. If JDV cancelled his trip, does this mean that both camps have reached an impasse or a settlement? Or JDV's forces have now assessed the situation and finally said that now is the time to move against Gloria?

We don't know what's happening behind the scenes but one thing is for sure--Gloria is using her enormous influence now to pressure the Supreme Court to grant an indefinite suspension of the ZTE deal. Gloria's camp is known to capitulate whenever it smells something sinister in the air. When its threatened, Gloria is known to back off. Unlike Erap who stubbornly resisted Chavit, Gloria's camp are veteran political operators who knows when to call it quits. This issue is easy to solve. Let the Supreme Court decide on the constitutionality of the deal, drop it, and let the heat off. For one, the ZTE deal does not have an appropriation in the first place and it's just a supplier contract. The best solution to this is for Gloria to face this squarely, decide for the suspension of the deal, and let agencies of government review it. It will take some time, yes, but, this is precisely the point why Gloria should back off now. If she does what Erap did in 2000, she may yet find herself and her spouse on the same boat as Erap. Gloria must stand down.