2016: Recalibrating History, Ushering in The New Old Order

In economics, there is such a thing as Kondratiev wave, a phenomenon of boom and bust, of economic cycles of expansion, stagnation and recession spanning 50 to 60 year cycles. Joseph Schumpeter was the first one to term it the "Kondratiev waves"

However, it was Mandel that shorten this observable cycle to 20-25 years.

In our history, we observe that the same human cycle exists, specifically in Philippine History. This just proves that our history is dictated much by dominant theoretical constructs that, if you look closely, are basically improvements of the same constructs that existed twenty or so years in the past.

That explains why I am particularly interested and concerned about the direction our country would take in 2016. The basic question really is---would it usher in a new order, a totally new direction which would actually be the alternative to 30 years of oligarchic rule.

To those students of Philippine history, keep a keen observation of this.

Remember that it only took twenty years of being under an oligarchic rule that we, as a Nation, through the leadership of One, changed tack and experimented in managing our affairs thru One Man rule. We seem to vacillate from soft approaches to extreme ones over a period of time. The  theoretical constructs as propounded by individuals who dominated the political era became the ascendant Idea.

Notice that the dictatorship came in 1972, and after fourteen years, a people's revolt ended it (1986). Sixteen years later, another revolt broke out, which essentially was a proxy revolt conducted by an elite versus another elite group (2002).

Next year, we will entering the 14th year after 2002. Will 2016 be another watershed in Philippine history, following another generational transition?

From dictatorship to Oligarchic Restoration
1972	14	1972
1986		44
2002	14
2016		2016

Notice that the same sentiments which resulted to the overthrow of previous administrations persist.
That same sentiments are in existence now, validated by a Pulse Asia survey this September which lays the major concerns such as wages and inflation, as purely consumer concerns. I am particularly comforted by the fact that I identified early on this particular concern as a major one two years ago--that from purely nationalist themes, people's concerns would shift to purely economic ones.

Within a span of 14 years, there has been a noticeable shift in public perception about governance. From calls of a "Bagong Lipunan" in 1972, it was transformed into " EDSA" (1986) then "tuwid na daan" (2010) and now it goes back to a "Bagong Lipunan" slogan, with Senators Grace Poe and Chiz Escudero calling for a "Bagong Umaga"

I am not entirely surprised by the call--this reflects the changing and vacillating views of the people regarding governance. Calls for change have been there since 1896, yet there has been no substantive change at all. Escudero is not hiding the fact that he is a friend of the Cojuangco-Angs--the family who benefited during the Marcos regime.

The question really now is---if we allow Escudero's group to ascend into power, will this be a sign of the restoration of the dictatorial powers which, forty four years ago, were the subject of public villification because of what they did to the country, and to its people?

Martial Law and the Need for an Authentic People's Revolution

It pains me to read blog entries and articles depicting the martial law era here in our country as something which many sees as "the ideal" governmental setup in our history. Many people believe that martial rule was "the ideal" because there was peace and order, and people obeyed the law. It is also "the ideal" because many iconic structures which are still regarded today as the country's monuments were made during this era. Likewise, people compare the "roads" of yesteryears and the big megastructures built during the Marcos era as incomparably superior than those made after Marcos.

Credit this, to the slow erosion of the people's trust in our institutions. Shortly after the fall of Marcos, all Filipinos thought that things will change for the better. Twenty years past, there is a general perception among Filipinos that things went from worse to worst. Fact is, the very ills that many people thought bedevilled Philippine society from the very beginning of this Republic's birth, began to take shape in another form, with the same lethal power.

Martial law was supposed to be the socio-political panacea against every single ill of our society. Many people still had this crazy idea that had Marcos stayed on course in his "Bagong Lipunan" theorem, it would have been better.

No.

Martial law was not a cure but a curse.  Bagong Lipunan was never a revolution, it was just a prop meant to lull a militant people into acquiesce. 

Instead of changing social structures and revolutionizing processes and functions, martial rule tried to preserve the best features of eroding institutions, enabling it to survive a possible revolutionary onslaught by the Filipino People. 

Marcos was right on when he signed Proclamation 1081 as the State's answer against the raging tide of Socialism. He was head of Asia's semi-capitalist state. His duty is to protect the way of life as he and his social class know it.

Marcos used martial law not to change Philippine society but to arrest its eventual decline. The decadence of that era rivalled that of Nero's Rome. Marcos used his iron hand not just to prevent the Revolutionaries of that era from ascending to power. 

And since there was no legitimate desire to change, only to legitimize his rule, Marcos strayed from the golden opportunity to direct the course of development by destroying the very institutions of decadence. Instead, Marcos tried to resuscitate those ailing and rotting levers of the superstructure, doing what his Capitalist masters wanted him to do. 

Marcos was neither a revolutionary nor a visionary. He was, plain and simply, a preserver of the old status quo. 

His very act, which he cloaked in propaganda terms as "Bagong Lipunan", was never revolutionary. It was purely reactionary. Bagong Lipunan was just a thesis meant to show that things were different, when in truth and in fact, the same society was actively promoted and supported by Marcos.

The greatest sin that Marcos did to the Filipino People was he gave them the impression that he was the Moses of his people, when, in truth and in fact, he became their Bane.

It is not only Marcos that erred in those times. 

I accuse those people who ascended into power after Marcos' ouster. They are worse than the Dictator because they pretended to be better than him when, in truth and in fact, they are nothing more than poor copycats.

These people perpetuated the system that the people condemned. They pretended to be promoters of democracy, when it was plutocracy that they truly pursued.

These people promoted a bourgeois capitalist system that further worsened both the economic and social spheres.

Instead of arresting the decline of Philippine society, things got worse because the root causes of our misery remain deeply imbedded within the very structure which we adopted from the West.

Now, more than ever, we need a change of the system. We need a surgical solution. We need a total overhaul of this system which oppresses the Filipino People.

The Filipino People is ripe for a revolution that will promote a totally different system, a system that equalizes opportunities, and gives every single individual his due.