Ethno-Linguistic and Religious Block Voting critical in 2010 elections

Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile was just being his political analyst self when he says that Gibo might just snatch the Solid North vote come election time. Gibo is the only candidate who can speak in Ilokano. And Enrile is right when he says that Ilokanos vote along ethno-linguistic lines, same as other "regional" groups like Maranaos, Cebuanos or Bicolanos.

Solid North is now a myth

Ilokanos comprise more or less 7-8 million votes. In the Philippines, ethicity is the first determining factor of voters. Historically, this is a proven fact. When Marcos ran for the presidency, he won thru the sheer power of the Ilokano votes. That also worked when Fidel V. Ramos ran in 1992. He got most of the votes simply because of his Ilokano and Panggalatok roots.

Now, given that all these political parties have the same platforms and they all lack a defining ideology, the best way to win is simply court large ethno-linguistic groups and "speak their language". I don't mean you'll actually talk like an Iloko or a Cebuano. No.

I mean, you need to identify the causes or issues that most Ilokanos consider close to their hearts. KNow their values. Know their aspirations. Know what they believe in. And you'll surely get some of their votes.

However, the behavior of Ilocano voting is predictable since from Independence, Ilokanos vote based on command. The Solid North has a huge command vote. For example, the Singsons still command respectability in Ilocos Norte, same as in Ilocos Sur. These two areas alone could overturn the tide against the highest rater in the surveys.

I disagree with Enrile though when he said that Gibo could possibly unite the entire North behind his candidacy, since we all know that the "Solid NOrth" is divided into two clear family lines---the North controlled by Chavit and the South by Eric Singson of the LIberal Party. Political kingpins in Cagayan and Isabela have already been defeated by Padaca and it is most critical for her to continue serving as governor there to prevent or deter the consolidation of the Solid North votes behind the administration bet.

Despite administration attempts, Pangasinan, which commands 1.3 million votes, is still under the De Venecia spell. It remains to be seen whether the De Venecias throw their support behind Gibo. It is expected though that the De Venecias would either support Noynoy or Villar.

However, what can definitely affect the so-called Solid North vote is the entry of the Marcoses in the political scene. The Marcos family is the only credible force that can unite the entire North. If the Marcoses throw their support behind Erap or Noynoy, then, that would throw a monkey wrench in the already muddled political pot.

Tarlak and Pampanga split along religious lines

Tarlak and Pampanga, meanwhile are split along religious lines. These areas are dictated by religious influence by big churches. In Tarlak, the strongest religious group there is the Iglesia ni Kristo. The INC is a large voting force. While in Pampanga, the Catholic Church exerts a very strong influence. This is based largely because of migration over the past few years. With the emergence of subdivisions and villages, many non-Tarlaquenos and Kapampangans have resided in these areas, unlike in the North where there were few instances of migrations. So, to get the majority votes of these areas, grassroots work should be undertaken, particularly that of courting the INC and bishops and cardinals of the Catholic church.

NCR is open country

NCR has been traditionally oppositionist. With a 5 million voting constituency, NCR is a traditional source of 20% or so share of the votes. Now, how do we view NCR. Let's go from city to city.

Manila
Definitely majority of Manila would go for Noynoy Aquino. Erap will land a far second. Chiz Escudero could also get some of the Manila vote and Manny Villar. Gibo will surely get a small percentage of the pie.

Quezon City
Mayor Sonny Belmonte is Lakas but is openly sympathetic with Noynoy. Belmonte would surely bring in the votes for Noynoy. However, the next big thing in Quezon City is Rep. Annie Susano who is obviously another Lakas member. If Susano throws her weight around and campaigns hard for Gibo, that would probably affect Noynoy's chances there.

Paranaque
Paranaque is middle class territory and whoever appeals the most, wins. IN the recent survey, middle class votes seem to favor Noynoy, Chiz and Villar. So, expect Paranaque to be split.

Taguig
Taguig is a small oppositionist city and it could go either Chiz or Noynoy.

Mandaluyong
Mandaluyong is for Gibo, since the Abalos family exerts great influence over there. However, what is significant to note that the city has a huge urban poor community, which, if organized, can go the way of Noynoy or Villar.

CAMANAVA
CAMANAVA is also an open territory. However, they went for Erap in 1998 and FPJ in 2004. It remains to be seen if they will still go for the UNO.

Muntinlupa-Las Pinas
Possibly going either to Noynoy, Villar or Erap.

(other areas sa susunod. Need to go to a meeting. Abangan!)

Villar-de Castro, Erap-Binay, Chiz-Loren, Noynoy-Mar, Gibo-Puno

As what we wrote a couple of weeks (or months?) ago, Vice President Noli de Castro really intends to run for re-election under the Nacionalista Party of Senator Manny Villar. Choosing Pia Cayetano or Loren are just bogeys meant to confuse the enemy.

Choosing the right running mate is most critical for Villar because this might pull his ratings down OR help him improve it. Villar is running second to Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino in the ratings game and I believe that, like Mar, his ratings have already plateau-ed. If Villar does not do anything to arrest the possible slide of his ratings, he will lose the game.

With De Castro, Villar could improve his ratings in the D class---but that is still uncertain because Erap's grassroots organizers are busy re-consolidating their forces. Erap is really busy campaigning and certainly, he'll run with Binay as his running mate.

Some sources however, say that Binay could actually end up not running AT ALL and just serve as Noynoy Aquino's campaign manager. Binay can still run for mayor of Makati or possibly given a Cabinet post should Noynoy win. It is most certain that Mar Roxas would run as Noynoy's running mate and this will be announced shortly after the Korina-Mar wedding.

(Speaking of Korina, this controversy involving her and RG cruz is not doing Mar any good. She and RG should just sit down and together resolve the problem. Don't involve management anymore since they're both guilty anyway. RG is wrong in not moderating his Facebook comments while Korina is wrong in using her influence to demand management to take a serious look on RG's after-office activities. Enuf said.)

If Binay does not run under UNO, that leaves Erap with no one. He certainly cannot get Loren off from the NPC since the Chiz Escudero-Loren Legarda tandem has already been arranged. However, this tandem is still OPEN to the possibility of merging with other "oppositionist" parties.