Zamboanga standoff near to resolution, but how about Basilan?

What really happened between Vice President Jejomar Binay and the President? Binay has been receiving a lot of flak for allegedly representing government in negotiations with the MNLF without the expressed approval of the President and the crisis committee. Binay reportedly had back-door negotiations with Nur Misuari, his classmate at the University of the Philippines in Diliman.

When the palace team handling the Zamboanga crisis reportedly disagreed with what Binay did, the Vice president hurriedly left for Manila shortly after announcing a so-called "ceasefire". That "ceasefire" declaration was rebuffed by the palace. Binay allegedly wanted to facilitate the safe passage of the MNLF rebels from Zamboanga. This, however, ran contrary to what government intended which is to resolve the issue using arms. Aquino wanted nothing more than decimate the MNLF ranks through military means.

The President is still in Zamboanga reportedly leading the troops to clear the area of rebels. It has been two weeks, and the military operations seemed destined towards victory. Nearly a hundred rebels were captured or have surrendered. Scores have been killed while several others managed to escape.

Honestly, what the military is doing right now in Zamboanga can be described as a pyrrhic victory. Yes, they dealt the MNLF a serious blow in their engagement in Zamboanga, at the cost of affecting the lives of hundreds of thousands of Zamboangenos. Eighty five thousand evacuees now populate various evacuation centers in the city. More than a hundred civilians were either killed or injured.

There seems to be no news on what is happening in Basilan, where fighting rages between government forces and the rebels, led by a combined force of the MNLF, the Abu Sayyaf and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), a splinter group of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

There is a possibility that this conflict will spread in other areas of the region, particularly in Jolo and Basilan, two strongholds of the MNLF. It seems that Aquino will still be busy containing the conflicts in Mindanao.

Worse, this could likewise be used by regional terrorists to "make their presence felt"and transform Mindanao into a regional magnet of Islamic fundamentalist forces. The Aquino administration clearly underestimated the long term effects of this conflict. Yes, the AFP will eventually win and flush out the remaining MNLF rebels in the area. The question is---for how long?

War beckons in Mindanao

Analysts say the recent bombing in Cagayan de Oro is just one of several bombings planned by enemies of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The MILF, as we know, had entered into a peace agreement with the Government of the Republic of the Philippines. President Aquino is expected to push for the enactment of a law creating the Bangsamoro sub-state. Obviously, forces and special interest groups in Mindanao who felt either betrayal or of being de-prioritized, will seek other means of expressing their outrage.

Who are these groups?

You have the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) who seeks for the implementation of the 1979 Tripoli agreement. You have a splinter group of radicals from the BIAF or the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces who separated from the MILF to continue the armed struggle initially created by Imam Salamat Hashim. Islamists from the Al Harakatul Al Islamiyah, a branch of the Jemaah Islamiyah in the Philippines will likewise consider heightening tensions there and of course, Christian armed forces.

Without the participation of some non-radical yet Bangsamoro forces, this plan will definitely fail. The government did not initiate its full effort of involving other stakeholders in the process. Due to this faux pas, these groups will definitely undermine the peace process.

It will take quite a long time before peace is achieved in this region.

Basilan fighting leaves 23 soldiers dead while Palace plans to buy 1 billion jet plane

“How many more wives will lose their husbands, how many more children will
lose their fathers, how many more will be next? How many more soldiers will
sacrifice their lives for a war without end?”
-----quote from a wife who lost her husband

Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is going to Zamboanga for a command conference. She wanted to know what happened why twenty three soldiers died while scores of others injured when fighting broke out between AFP forces and Bangsamoro rebels in Tipo-Tipo Basilan.

While Arroyo tries to commisserate with the soldiers, a palace spokesperson revealed that the palace intends to buy a billion peso airplane while field soldiers suffer from lack of equipment and ammo.

The AFP blamed the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) when some of them ambushed the reinforcement of those Marines who first attacked the camp of the Abu Sayyaf Group, an international terror group. Eighteen Marines died in that encounter.

Without that ambush, Lt. Col. Romeo Brawner Jr. said, the soldiers would have overwhelmed the 20 or so Abu Sayyaf Group rebels in the area. The AFP is planning to file a complaint before the Committee on the Cessation of Hostilities but Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Avelino Razon already said that the incident was an "isolated" one and does not affect the proposed peace negotiations between the government and the MILF.

Of the 21 recovered bodies of the rebels, eleven of them were members of the 114th Base Command of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

The fighting began when soldiers staged an attack at the camp of the Abu Sayyaf Group in Barangay Silangkum, a known ASG lair. Based on AFP intelligence, the place was a bomb training camp.

Based on accounts, the soldiers were surprised when they spotted ASG members already waiting for them. Fierce close and hand-to-hand fighting began in the morning and lasted up to the wee hours of the night. Reinforcements were sent but these too were ambushed, this time, according to accounts, from combined elements of the MILF and the ASG. When the smoke of the fighting cleared, 23 soldiers lay dead, most with hack wounds and scores injured.

This is the worst war casualty so far sustained by the Philippine military in the fight against Bangsamoro rebels in Mindanao.

How Muslim Youths in Mindanao think

There's an interesting dig at a conversation made by a journalist with a young Tausug over at rebelpen (http://rebelpen.wordpress.com). That entry shows you why young Tausugs turn into rebels overnight. Analysts would always blame poverty for this. Yes, probably. But, gut issues just concretize their prevailing beliefs. It is not the sole reason why Muslim youth rebel against the system.

Its their interpretation of history. It's their prevailing belief that they have been subjugated by Christians. It is how they view the world.

Look, Islamic culture is different from Christian beliefs. That much we need to admit. We believe there's a thin barrier separating these religious philosophies together but this is more illusory than fact. That barrier is as thick as a building.

The more Christian settlers in that part of the world hammer their own laws, their own beliefs and their own system of doing things, the more radicalize these Muslim youths become. Why?

Because their history is one of subjugation. There's no co-existence happening in Mindanao. What exists is an uneasy tolerance between both cultures that would definitely lead to conflict. Its just a matter of time before this explodes in our faces.

That leads us to one question--what's the cause of this? The obvious answer is weak government. Government is supposed to be the equalizer, the neutralizer. The neutralizing or equalizing force is the enforcement of law, which, to my memory, is non-existent. When governments are weak, the more conflict a society gets because there's no force that enforces the laws. When people feel aggrieved and when laws are perceived to be unequal, favoring a certain culture or system of beliefs over the other, war is inevitable.

IN the case of Mindanao, how do you expect the Bangsamoro to follow Philippine laws when these laws have been predicated from Graeco-Roman precepts, totally antithetical with Shariah or Islamic law? Would you expect a devout Muslim to follow a law based on Christian beliefs? No.

In our case, it would be very hard to find a "middle ground". Religious tolerance cannot be done with a weak government. Now, if government continues to be weak, then, it's time for us to consider giving the Bangsamoro a shot at governance.

Let them govern themselves. Those lands which they claim as theirs is indisputable.

War in Mindanao

Secretary Ermita just confirmed what we wrote here--Esperon's additional 90 days are to be spent in a war in Mindanao which they would conduct sometime in February 2008. After that, Esperon will be given a government post.

In an interview yesterday, Esperon admitted that his last remaining 90 days will be "bloody" since he expects the NPA rebels in 17 fronts to fight. What he is not saying is the impending war in Mindanao which the hawks at the palace are lusting to do. Why a war in Mindanao? Two things: First, a war in Mindanao will justify the push for charter change and second, it would show the US how "resolute" the Philippine government is in the fight against terror.

What government is not telling us is this---what would be the economic effects of such wars? Have they even thought of the economic consequences of these campaigns?

Gloria should seriously think about this. Why? In a time where the entire world economy is bracing for a recession, this administration wants to spend money for a war to justify cha-cha. An economic adviser already told Arroyo that the government needs 75 billion pesos to shield it from the dire effects of a US recession. What if government spends 1 billion a day for 90 days just for these wars?

Gloria should not raid the public coffers to fund these campaigns. A war would not only affect Mindanao. It will seriously affect the entire Philippines. I shudder at the thought of an Argentinian food riots happening in Manila.

Time to process that Canadian immigration application.