The Last Option

There is a very serious and life-threatening situation for Filipinos now. And I urge everyone who reads this to be very, very vigilant because I am sensing something very sinister that would happen either this month, August or in the coming two months.

I am talking about the worsening Mindanao conflict. This conflict is just part of a bigger scenario to create instability. I am not into this conspiracy crap, but, the way things are going right now point to this direction. 

There is a plan for the immediate ouster of Gloria by way of a coup. Reports point to two groups involved. One is a group within the palace who wants to extend their political life post-Gloria and the other, a more cohesive movement, supported by international players who aim to sacrifice Gloria's administration to preserve the so-called Philippine territory.

Both groups are antithetical to the widespread clamour for meaningful change. Both belong to the rightist side of the political spectrum, although one of them is being supported by cause-minded people in high society as well as civil society. 

It seems that people from both groups want to escalate the violence to a certain degree as to create temporary instability, without much bloodshed and without much impact to the national economy. Indications point to a heightening of tensions prior to August 15 (the date when the Supreme Court hears arguments for and against the MOA) and beyond August 18, 2008. Before the Supreme Court releases a favorable decision on the MOA, either one of these groups will act against this administration. 

A proposed deterrent is for this administration to abandon federalist talk and shift the burden of resolving the Bangsamoro Question to the next administration. Or, this government should also  institute immediate security measures to avert a possible God Save the Queen plan or another Oakwood mutiny.

There are signs that people with sinister plans will foment a revolt or mutiny within the AFP and the PNP. As casualties mount with the on-going military offensive in North Cotabato, that would be the sign that these groups will wait to launch an offensive against Gloria. 

Either way, Gloria is a sure loser in this intra-elite fighting. There's really something behind that cryptic FVR statement that Gloria's term is sure to be continued by another (possibly the SC Chief Justice) and she'll not enjoy immunity.